2010 N.L. Starting Pitchers

Despite the fact that they lost their owners money, last year's most expensive starting pitchers in the National League were a relatively success-oriented group.

Ten Most Expensive N.L. Starting Pitchers 2010

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	PK	CBS	'09
1	Tim Lincecum	$22	$36	-14	$36	$33	$38
2	Roy Halladay	$38	$31	+7	$35	$27	$37
3	Dan Haren	$6	$29	-22	$33	$25	$33
4	Adam Wainwright	$35	$25	+11	$28	$23	$32
5	Johan Santana	$20	$25	-5	$32	$24	$21
6	Josh Johnson	$26	$23	+3	$23	$22	$26
7	Tommy Hanson	$19	$23	-4	$18	$20	$18
8	Chris Carpenter	$24	$23	+1	$28	$24	$33
9	Cole Hamels	$23	$23	0	$23	$20	$13
10	Ricky Nolasco	$12	$22	-10	$13	$15	$14
	Average	$22	$26	-4	$27	$23	$27

Haren, Lincecum and Nolasco were the only big losers, while half of the pitchers here either broke even or made their owners money.

These pitchers did better than the most expensive group in 2009 while matching what their 2008 counterparts did dollar for dollar. What's remarkable to me is how consistent the 10 most expensive pitchers have been over the last three years. They have cost between $26-27 and earned between $21-22 per pitcher. We all believe that pitchers are very inconsistent, but in terms of expectations versus earnings this spread is very consistent.

Despite the predictability of these pitchers, the market can't bring itself to spend less on these pitchers as a group than what they earned the year before. True, the market gives out a $1 pay cut here, but that's still an aggressive way to bid on a group of pitchers who almost always are bound to fail.

These pitchers are hardly failures, though. At $19, Hanson was the 16th best starting pitcher in the National League in 2010. The expert leagues had an eight in 10 chance of getting a top 16 pitcher with their $22 average bid. Only Nolasco and Haren missed...and if you play with LABR or Tout Wars rules that allow you to keep a player traded to the American League, then Haren would have earned you $16.

The next chart emphasizes how relatively predictable National League pitchers were last year.

Top 10 N.L. Starting Pitchers 2010

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	PK	CBS	'09
1	Roy Halladay	$38	$31	+7	$35	$27	$37
2	Adam Wainwright	$35	$25	+11	$28	$23	$32
3	Ubaldo Jimenez	$29	$20	+9	$14	$19	$24
4	Roy Oswalt	$29	$16	+13	$17	$17	$13
5	Josh Johnson	$26	$23	+3	$23	$22	$26
6	Mat Latos	$25	$8	+17	$8	$10	$3
7	Tim Hudson	$25	$11	+14	$9	$14	$2
8	Matt Cain	$25	$20	+5	$26	$21	$26
9	Clayton Kershaw	$24	$21	+4	$20	$17	$21
10	Chris Carpenter	$24	$23	+1	$28	$24	$33
	Average	$28	$20	+8	$27	$23	$22

Latos is the only top earner to go for single digits; Latos, Hudson and Oswalt are the only pitchers here who go under $20. Everyone else here costs his owners some pretty serious coin.

Rotoman's fairly aggressive stance in both of these groups gives him a better chance at buying a top pitcher.

True, he takes a loss on the most expensive group. In a hypothetical three-way tussle with the market and the CBS prices, he would get Halladay, Haren, Wainwright, Santana and Carpenter, while tying the market on Lincecum, Johnson and Hamels. The market only beats out Rotoman outright on Hanson and Nolasco. In the best pitcher group, the market adds Jimenez and Kershaw to their stable. Rotoman gets Cain and ties CBS on Oswalt. CBS finally gets in on the action with the Oswalt tie and Hudson and Latos outright.

It could be argued that the CBS prices are best. Stay away from the top tier guys and hope you get the Hudsons and Latoses of the world. You might hit a bomb or two but the profit on Hudson or Latos will pull you through. Get both and you probably win.

The problem with this approach is that your odds look pretty poor to me. Teams that are spending the money are the teams getting back the stats. Miss out on the top group and you're probably going to miss out on a $20 pitcher. In my next post, I'll run through the rest of last year's N.L. starting pitchers. There are some gems out there, but as you'll see, they aren't many for under $20.