As my regular readers know, I don't make predictions. Something I do attempt to do is analyze earning versus spending trends from one year to the next.
This is what I wrote at the end of last year's version of this column:
I anticipate prices will go up in expert auctions next year for the best pitchers. Whether or not this new crop of aces is worth it is why we play the season.
It turned out I was mostly wrong.
Top 10 Salaries, A.L. Pitchers
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | PK | SW | '09 |
| 1 | Felix Hernandez | $35 | $31 | +4 | $32 | $33 | $40 |
| 2 | CC Sabathia | $28 | $29 | -2 | $34 | $27 | $34 |
| 3 | Zack Greinke | $14 | $29 | -15 | $34 | $32 | $44 |
| 4 | Justin Verlander | $26 | $26 | 0 | $28 | $26 | $37 |
| 5 | Jon Lester | $26 | $25 | +1 | $31 | $26 | $30 |
| 6 | Mariano Rivera | $20 | $24 | -4 | $27 | $27 | $27 |
| 7 | Josh Beckett | -$2 | $24 | -26 | $24 | $25 | $28 |
| 8 | Jon Papelbon | $17 | $23 | -6 | $26 | $25 | $19 |
| 9 | Javier Vazquez | $3 | $21 | -18 | $20 | $18 | $35 |
| 10 | Joakim Soria | $22 | $21 | +1 | $23 | $23 | $22 |
| | Average | $19 | $25 | -7 | $28 | $26 | $32 |
This group of pitchers earned $32 per pitcher in 2009, yet the market couldn't bring itself to pay this group of pitchers more than $25 on average. This despite the fact that six of the seven starting pitchers on the chart above cracked the $30 earnings barrier in 2009.
As I mentioned earlier in my A.L. starting pitcher write-up, part of the reason that the best pitchers earned so much in '09 was because the average A.L. pitcher wasn't as good as in years past. For Greinke to earn $44 again in 2010, not only would he have to duplicate his 2009 numbers, but the 108 pitchers purchased in 2010 would have to put up the same stats that they did in 2009.
The market, Rotoman and Sports Weekly aren't trying to guess what the average pitcher is going to do in 2010. But they are trying to determine how much better Greinke, Hernandez and Sabathia will be than the average pitcher. The higher the market's price for the elite pitchers, the more likely it is that they believe that pitching will be thin again in '10. The lower the market's price, the more likely they believe there will be a course correction and that the pitchers will recover.
Based on this rationale, everyone anticipates some kind of course correction. However, there is a significant difference from Rotoman's $28 average bid limit for these pitchers versus the market's $25 average salary. Specifically, Rotoman's aggressive prices on Greinke, Hernandez, and Sabathia seem to be indicating that you had better push hard on these aces if you want to win. The market, meanwhile, seems to be telling us to wait for the next group of pitchers.
(Their prices for those other pitchers come closer to Rotoman's but never exceed them in any group of 10. In reality, they are recommending moving that money that is traditionally spent on pitching toward hitters).
The justification for spending big bucks on a top pitcher isn't based on what happened the year before, though, but on how it actually pans out.
Top 10 Earnings, A.L. Pitchers
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | PK | SW | '09 |
| 1 | Felix Hernandez | $35 | $31 | +4 | $32 | $33 | $40 |
| 2 | Jered Weaver | $29 | $15 | +14 | $17 | $13 | $25 |
| 3 | CC Sabathia | $28 | $29 | -2 | $34 | $27 | $34 |
| 4 | David Price | $28 | $10 | +18 | $11 | $10 | $11 |
| 5 | Cliff Lee | $27 | $20 | +7 | $24 | $28 | $27 |
| 6 | Justin Verlander | $26 | $26 | 0 | $28 | $26 | $37 |
| 7 | Jon Lester | $26 | $25 | +1 | $31 | $26 | $30 |
| 8 | Rafael Soriano | $25 | $19 | +6 | $16 | $18 | $18 |
| 9 | Trevor Cahill | $25 | $5 | +19 | $4 | | $7 |
| 10 | Clay Buchholz | $24 | $10 | +14 | $9 | $11 | $8 |
| | Average | $27 | $19 | +8 | $21 | $19 | $24 |
The results were mixed. Hernandez, Sabathia, Verlander and Lester are the holdovers from the previous chart. But Lee (11th most expensive) and Soriano (13th) almost sneaked on to the previous chart. The surprises here were Buchholz, Cahill, Price, and Weaver.
For the second time in a row, Rotoman's out in front on these guys. In a three-way battle with the market and Sports Weekly, he gets Weaver, Sabathia, Price, Verlander and Lester. SW gets Felix, Lee and Buchholz, while the market is left with Soriano and Cahill.
Looking at this chart, it looks like the market is primarily cheating the top pitchers based on last year's earnings, while leaving the guys in the middle and toward the bottom alone. Buchholz and Soriano are the only pitchers here who get raises, but the news here isn't in the number of pay cuts, but in how sharp the pay cuts are for some of these pitchers. Felix, Weaver, Sabathia, Lee, Verlander and Lester all get dinged by $5 or more from what they earned in '09. I believe the market is banking on two things:
1. Pitchers are unpredictable. Therefore, the top pitchers from 2009 will earn less in 2010.
The six best starting pitchers from 2009 are all represented above in one or both of the charts. Beckett is a huge disappointment, and Greinke is a moderate one. The other four - Hernandez, Lester, Sabathia, and Verlander - all earn $25 or more. Given that only nine A.L. pitchers even earned $25 or more in 2010, this is a pretty amazing feat. It also challenges the idea that pitchers are unpredictable. Granted, all four pitchers earned less than they did in 2009. Even when you take this into account, though, the market was still too conservative with these guys.
2. Pitchers are unpredictable. Therefore, there will be plenty of cheap pitchers who turn a big profit.... or at least enough that spending $30+ on a starting pitcher doesn't make a lot of sense.
There certainly seems to be some truth to this idea.
Top 10 Profits, A.L. Pitchers
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | PK | SW | '09 |
| 1 | Trevor Cahill | $25 | $5 | +19 | $4 | | $7 |
| 2 | C.J. Wilson | $20 | $2 | +18 | $5 | $4 | $15 |
| 3 | David Price | $28 | $10 | +18 | $11 | $10 | $11 |
| 4 | Colby Lewis | $19 | $3 | +16 | $2 | $4 | |
| 5 | Gio Gonzalez | $19 | $3 | +16 | $3 | $1 | $1 |
| 6 | Carl Pavano | $18 | $3 | +16 | $3 | $3 | $12 |
| 7 | Brian Duensing | $15 | $0 | +15 | R3 | $1 | $7 |
| 8 | Jered Weaver | $29 | $15 | +14 | $17 | $13 | $25 |
| 9 | Neftali Feliz | $23 | $9 | +14 | $5 | $8 | $9 |
| 10 | Jeremy Guthrie | $16 | $2 | +14 | $7 | | $7 |
| | Average | $21 | $5 | +16 | $6 | $4 | $9 |
The 10 most profitable American League pitchers cost $2 less per pitcher than their counterparts in 2009. However, there were just as many "crapshoot" pitchers (average salary of $3 or less) in 2010 as there were in 2009.
Because the average pitcher in 2010 put up better stats, it made it less likely that one of the best pitchers was going to appear on this chart. Weaver - the second best pitcher in the entire American League - barely cracks the Top 10 bargains, and he cost $6 less than Hernandez, 2009's second best pitcher. And while it sounds like sacrilege to put Weaver in the same class as Felix, if you put Weaver's 2010 final numbers into 2009's context, he jumps from a $29 pitcher to a $37 pitcher.
The framework I've created for this discussion is more than a little bogus. The stronger pitching context doesn't "create bargains" or "make the top pitchers better." Instead, there are more pitchers auctioned who produce stronger results. This creates a cap on what the best pitchers can earn...unless you have a mid-1990s Greg Maddux or late 1990s/early 2000s Pedro Martinez lurking. There wasn't, so the result was one $30+ pitcher and only eight others over $25.
Figuring out who the best pitchers in the improved context are, though, is just as much of a challenge as it always is. So guys like Gonzalez and Guthrie are still there for the taking in the end game. And because pitching is still unpredictable, this next list is going to be just as ugly as it always is.
Top 10 Losses, A.L. Pitchers
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | PK | SW | '09 |
| 1 | Josh Beckett | -$2 | $24 | -26 | $24 | $25 | $28 |
| 2 | Javier Vazquez | $3 | $21 | -18 | $20 | $18 | $35 |
| 3 | Ryan Rowland-Smith | -$11 | $5 | -16 | $9 | $6 | $10 |
| 4 | Scott Kazmir | -$5 | $11 | -16 | $10 | $6 | $9 |
| 5 | A.J. Burnett | $0 | $16 | -15 | $12 | $12 | $19 |
| 6 | Zack Greinke | $14 | $29 | -15 | $34 | $32 | $44 |
| 7 | Rich Harden | -$3 | $10 | -13 | $11 | $9 | $13 |
| 8 | James Shields | $5 | $17 | -12 | $19 | $14 | $18 |
| 9 | Michael Gonzalez | $2 | $14 | -11 | $15 | $15 | $15 |
| 10 | Jake Peavy | $7 | $18 | -11 | $24 | $12 | $16 |
| | Average | $1 | $17 | -15 | $18 | $15 | $21 |
Greinke saves this group from negative earnings.
And the improved pitching context means that the floor is going to be that much lower. Chien-Ming Wang's ($8) season in 2009 would have looked much worse in the 2010 context.
One challenge that exists in navigating these types of waters is that where Beckett or Vazquez might have put up a season worth salvaging, last year their numbers were nearly worthless (Vazquez) or worse than worthless (Beckett). It's important to try and identify the narrow difference between the first tier and the second tier. Despite his disappointing year, it can be argued that Greinke is first tier; a $14 year while disappointing gives you back half of your investment. While that was probably of little consolation to many of his owners, at least you got something back for your trouble.
Whether or not you expect the hitters to rally again this year or for the pitchers to hold their ground, I'd still spend like Rotoman on the top pitchers. Just make sure if you do so to take some money away from the guys at the bottom. It doesn't make much sense to pay more than $3 for Rowland-Smith when Gutrhie and Wilson are waiting in the endgame. Even if you don't know in advance what the results are going to be for Rowland-Smith, Guthrie and Wilson, you know that the disappointments and surprises will continue to be as unpredictable as ever.
No comments:
Post a Comment