Ten Most Expensive A.L. Starting Pitchers 2010
# | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | PK | CBS | '09 |
1 | Felix Hernandez | $35 | $31 | +4 | $32 | $26 | $40 |
2 | CC Sabathia | $28 | $29 | -2 | $34 | $27 | $34 |
3 | Zack Greinke | $14 | $29 | -15 | $34 | $26 | $44 |
4 | Justin Verlander | $26 | $26 | 0 | $28 | $26 | $37 |
5 | Jon Lester | $26 | $25 | +1 | $31 | $23 | $30 |
6 | Josh Beckett | -$2 | $24 | -26 | $24 | $23 | $28 |
7 | Javier Vazquez | $3 | $21 | -18 | $20 | $22 | $35 |
8 | Cliff Lee | $27 | $20 | +7 | $24 | $22 | $27 |
9 | Jake Peavy | $7 | $18 | -11 | $24 | $22 | $16 |
10 | Brett Anderson | $12 | $18 | -6 | $15 | $13 | $18 |
Average | $18 | $24 | -7 | $27 | $23 | $31 |
Taken pitcher by pitcher, this is hardly a predictable group. Taken on the whole, though, this is a very reliable cadre of starters.
True, last year's crop earned more. But this isn't because the best pitchers in 2009 were better. Rather, it is because the pitchers in the middle were far worse.
2009 Average Auctioned A.L. Pitcher: 6.3 W, 4.2 SV, 102.3 IP, 103.1 H, 36 BB, 48.1 ER, 81.5 K, 1.360 WHIP, 4.23 ERA.
2010 Average Auctioned A.L. Pitcher: 7.5 W, 4.6 SV, 119.83 IP, 115.2 H, 40 BB, 52.9 ER, 92.5 K, 1.295 WHIP, 3.97 ERA.
The chart tells us that Greinke's 2009 was worth $44 in 5x5 A.L.-only leagues, and there is no taking that away from him; he'll have that season on the books forever. However, in the 2010 pitching context, Greinke was "only" worth $36.
How can this be?
Context. Greinke's 2.16 ERA in 2009 was over two runs better than the average pitcher's and was thus worth $11.14. Last year, that same ERA was "only" worth $9.78.
The pricing differences between the market and PK (Rotoman) tell us what the market and Rotoman expected last year. Rotoman expected less offense, but thought that the best pitchers would still be better than usual. The market expected a lot of regression to the mean. In the broader context, the market was correct.
On a pitcher-by-pitcher basis, though, Rotoman is as close or closer to the market on half of these pitchers. He's not buying all of them in a real auction (obviously), so how he feels about his auction depends on whom he gets first. If he got Felix and CC early and played dollar derby, he would have been very happy indeed. If he waited a little longer and grabbed Beckett and Vazquez, um, not so much.
A lot of your feelings about this first group are contingent upon who you got - or didn't get - in the grouping below.
Top 10 A.L. Starting Pitchers 2010
# | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | PK | CBS | '09 |
1 | Felix Hernandez | $35 | $31 | +4 | $32 | $26 | $40 |
2 | Jered Weaver | $29 | $15 | +14 | $17 | $19 | $25 |
3 | CC Sabathia | $28 | $29 | -2 | $34 | $27 | $44 |
4 | David Price | $28 | $10 | +18 | $11 | $14 | $11 |
5 | Cliff Lee | $27 | $20 | +7 | $24 | $22 | $27 |
6 | Justin Verlander | $26 | $26 | 0 | $28 | $26 | $37 |
7 | Jon Lester | $26 | $25 | +1 | $31 | $23 | $30 |
8 | Trevor Cahill | $25 | $5 | +19 | $4 | $9 | $7 |
9 | Clay Buchholz | $24 | $10 | +14 | $9 | $17 | $8 |
10 | C.J. Wilson | $20 | $2 | +18 | $5 | $8 | $15 |
Average | $27 | $17 | +9 | $20 | $19 | $24 |
This isn't a surprising group at all. Only Wilson is a huge surprise, while Cahill is a moderate surprise.
As I often like to say, the market is not making projections, but rather placing bets. The bet on Felix isn't that he won't repeat 2009 but rather that there is a floor to what he can earn and it's best not to stray that far from the floor. The market isn't deciding what pitchers will earn but rather trying to decide how far a pitcher can be pushed before he becomes too much of a risk.
CBS has replaced ZIPS as a prediction model because ZIPS doesn't project saves, and I'll need those later. But CBS' projection model is just like ZIPS in that it can only project so much greatness for the best players and winds up pushing the money down to the pitchers on the bottom. It's interesting to look at, but virtually worthless in terms of scoring them as a tout.
But back to the matter at hand. You definitely want those expensive pitchers.
Half of them are included in both lists. While it's true that Beckett and Vazquez would have sabotaged you, to have a 50/50 chance of getting one of the 10 best pitchers in the league when you spend big bucks is actually a pretty good gamble. In my next post, I'll take a look at more American League starting pitchers to see how these guys did compared to the next groupings, but I suspect that my conclusion will not change. Getting back $18 per pitcher on the best perceived pitchers is money well spent.
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