In my last post, I looked at the A.L. rookie hitters that John Sickels, the superb analyst at Minor League Ball rated a B+ or higher on his web site this winter. Today, I'll move over to the N.L. hitting pool.
Grade A
1) Jay Bruce. 2007 Stats (High-A/AA/AAA): 521 AB, 26 HR, 89 RBI, 8 SB, 47 BB, 135 K, .319 BA, .375 OBP, .587 SLG.
At this point, any debate about Bruce isn't going to concern what his ceiling is. He put those numbers up as a 20-year old last year, and held his own as he moved from level to level. There's an excellent chance that Bruce is going to be the Reds Opening Day center fielder, so we can't simply say he's a top farm or reserve pick and leave it at that.
My take on Bruce is that he'll struggle a little bit out of the gate if the Reds bring him up. His raw power is undeniable, and he'll hit home runs on cripple pitches. But his high K/AB rate suggests that he's still learning to hit off-speed offerings, and I think his batting average will dip down to about .260-.270 as a result. In the power department, he could still hit 25 HR, but that might be on the high end of expectations for a 21-year old rookie.
The bid falls in at $12 in a non-carryover league but at $18-20 in a freeze league. There's no way you can let Bruce slip below $15 in a freeze league. Even if he's tanking, people still might pay the going 2-for-1 rate in a dump deal based on his potential alone.
2) Colby Rasmus. 2007 Stats (AA): 472 AB, 29 HR, 72 RBI, 18 SB, 70 BB, 108 K, .275 BA, .381 OBP, .551 SLG.
Personally, I'd downgrade Rasmus to an A-, but that's because I believe he projects long-term as a $25-30 hitter as opposed to the $35 hitter Bruce might be some day. Rasmus, though, is probably a better short-term investment. He has better strike zone management, similar power to Bruce, and speed that won't go away once he reaches the majors. Unlike Bruce, though, there's a good chance that Rasmus will start the year in Triple-A. The Cardinals look like they're retooling for 2009 or later, and throwing Rasmus into the fire at the age of 21 doesn't make a lot of sense. Naturally, there is the temptation to bring Rasmus up sooner than later, since there won't be a lot else to look forward to in St. Louis, but my guess is he starts in the minors.
If he does make the team, I'd bid $16, if only because he could be a 15-15 guy right out of the gate. Be aware, though, that the batting average might not be so good right away, and the RBI opportunities in St. Louis might not be as plentiful as they've been in the past.
Grade A-
3) Joey Votto. 2007 Stats (AAA/Majors): 580 AB, 26 HR, 109 RBI, 18 SB, 75 BB, 125 K, .298 BA, .379 OBP, .498 SLG.
At 24, Votto is older than Bruce and Rasmus, and that's why I suspect the grade is a tick lower. He looks like a more polished product, but he's probably pretty close to his ceiling. That isn't to say that Votto isn't a good player to target in your auction. He did very well in his cup of coffee in September, and might see less regression in his MLB stats due to his age. Even if the power drops a little, Votto might still hit .280 with 15 HR and a good deal of ribbies. The steals are illusory; Votto was caught 10 times, and he'll probably see the red light more often than not. I'd go $14. One complication is the continued presence of Scott Hatteburg. Votto might start out in a quasi-platoon, which would obviously compromise his value.
4) Cameron Maybin. 2007 Stats (R/High-A/AA/Majors): 372 AB, 15 HR, 55 RBI, 30 SB, 54 BB, 112 K, .293 BA, .383 OBP, .489 SLG.
Thanks to the speed, Maybin arguably has the highest Roto ceiling of anyone on this list. But he probably also has the broadest range of possibilities as well. He did fine for a 20-year-old who spent most of his season in High-A ball. But that's the problem: Maybin was rushed to the majors for a cup of coffee that tasted like saccharine. Understandably, the Tigers were still on the fringes of a pennant race, and hoping to inject life into their sagging season. But now that Maybin's been in The Show, the temptation will be for the Marlins to start him off in the majors if he has a strong spring. They shouldn't. He's still a work-in-progress, and he could very well hit .230 or so over the course of a full major league season.
That being said, Maybin still has a lot of Roto potential because of the steals and the developing power. He's still worth a $12 bid and, like Bruce, potentially more in carryover leagues.
5) Andy LaRoche. 2007 Stats (AAA/Majors): 348 AB, 19 HR, 58 RBI, 4 SB, 59 BB, 66 K, .296 BA, .398 OBP, .532 SLG.
The big issue with LaRoche is the question of where he'd play in the majors. The Dodgers have Nomar Garciaparra at 3B, and I don't think they'd stick him on the bench, even though LaRoche at this point might be a better bet. The batting average did tank in the small MLB sample size, but LaRoche kept on walking, posting 20 walks in 103 plate appearances in the majors. That's an indication to me that he'd control the strike zone and eventually see the average bump back up to about .270 or .280. I do wonder about the power of all Dodgers prospects, as Dodger Stadium tends to always be one of the least favorable power venues in the majors. For now, LaRoche gets no bid, as I think he'll start the year in AAA.
6) Andrew McCutchen. 2007 Stats (AA/AAA): 513 AB, 11 HR, 53 RBI, 21 SB, 48 BB, 94 K, .265 BA, .328 OBP, .388 SLG.
Scouts rave about McCutchen, but the skills haven't caught up with the tools yet. McCutchen gets a little credit for doing OK as a 21-year-old in Double-A, but those numbers mean that he should probably go back to the minors and maybe even start out in AA once again. He's a definite farm/reserve pick, and if you're looking for immediate production in 2008, you should downgrade him on your farm list accordingly.
Grade B+
The National League had 13 hitters rated with a B+ by Sickels. Following the format I set forth in my A.L. post, I'll rate these guys into four categories for 2008: high impact, possible impact, unlikely or low impact, and zero impact.
High Impact: Geovany Soto
With only Henry Blanco and Koyie Hill currently sitting on the Cubs depth chart, I'm assuming Soto is going to be the Cubs starting catcher on Opening Day. He's a tough prospect to project, since his power burst in 2007 came out of nowhere; his prior HR high in the minors was nine for High-A West Tennessee in 2004 before breaking out with a 26 HR season at AAA last year. He might regress a little in the majors, but keep in mind that minor league catchers sometimes take longer to figure out their craft than other position players. I'd bid $11 and take the chance that Soto might hit 20 HR, a rarity from an N.L. Roto catcher.
Possible Impact: Matt Antonelli, Brandon Jones, Steven Pearce.
Antonelli should probably be in the low impact group of hitters. He did well at High-A Lake Elsinore, and then held his own in Double-A later in the year, but the Tadahito Iguchi signing means that the Padres will wisely let Antonelli get a full year of additional seasoning under his belt. Jones has had a solid minor league career, but he might be one of those tweeners who doesn't hit for enough power for a corner OF position, but is a little too slow to play CF. He has half a season at AAA, and that's where he think he'll at least start 2008. Pearce smoked 31 HR on a journey that started at High-A Lynchburg and ended in the majors The power and the walks dropped a lot between AA and the majors, and I think that Pearce is also heading back to AAA. He needs a position, as the Pirates are locked up in the OF and at 1B.
Low Impact: Chase Headley, Chris Marrero, Jordan Schaffer.
Headley put up incredible numbers in Double-A last year, but he's 23 years old and the clock is starting to tick a little bit. He also looks like he doesn't have a position in the majors right now with Kevin Kouzmanoff playing more than adequately at 3B. There's been talk the the Pads might move him to left in AAA to start 2008. Marrero is only 19 years old, but I could see him up in September for a cup of coffee if he does well this year. He might have the highest ceiling of any Nationals prospect. He probably belongs in the no impact group, but the list here is already thin so I thought I'd include him. Schaffer's already being mentioned as a possible replacement for Mark Kotsay after the inevitable Kotsay injury, but he's another prospect who looks like he's at least a full year away if not two - he finished 2007 in High-A ball.
No Impact: Michael Burgess, Jason Heyward, Matt LaPorta, Fernando Martinez, Angel Villalona, Josh Vitters.
Saturday, February 02, 2008
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Minor Leaguers - A.L. Hitters
Keith Law has a column up over at ESPN rating the Top 100 Prospects of 2008. As always with Keith Law, it's an extremely well written and edifying column.
One of the more significant challenges in Roto, however, is figuring out what kind of price tag to put on these guys in your auction. Ratings often take defense into account, which most Roto leagues don't use. Furthermore, some of these projections look at the bigger, long-term picture of where these players will be in five years. As a baseball fan, that's the kind of information I devour, but as a Roto player, knowing that Jose Tabata is going to be a superstar in 2013 doesn't do me much good now.
With that in mind, I thought I'd look at some of John Sickels' B+ or higher prospects from his Minor League Ball blog and put up some early 4x4 bid limits for the guys who will have an impact in 2008.
Grade A
Evan Longoria 2007 Numbers (AA/AAA): 485 AB, 26 HR, 95 RBI, 4 SB, .299 BA, 73 BB, 110 K, .402 OBP, .510 SLG
In the American League, Evan Longoria is in a class by himself as a prospect. Assuming he wins the Rays third-base job, he'll play 2008 as a 22-year old, and I'd agree with Law that Longoria's the morning-line favorite for A.L. Rookie of the Year. From a Roto standpoint, though, I wouldn't break the bank on him. Most likely, Longoria will initially be a 15-20 HR hitter with a .260 to .270 average. That's great for a 22-year old kid, but it might not even put him in the first tier of A.L. third basemen. Bid $14.
Grade A-
Jacoby Ellsbury 2007 (AA/AAA/Majors): 552 AB, 5 HR, 59 RBI, 50 SB, .330 BA, 46 BB, 60 K, .381 OBP, .442 SLG
I like Ellsbury, but the power he showed in his 116 major league AB for the Red Sox probably isn't sustainable, at least not in the short-term. I also don't think he's going to run quite as much for the Red Sox, a slightly more conservative speed team than most. I'm not as apt or willing to run him into the ground as some of his detractors are, and I think he'll eventually be a fine 10-15 HR player with very good speed. But don't get sucked into the postseason hype. Bid $14.
Jed Lowrie 2007 (AA/AAA): 497 AB, 13 HR, 70 RBI, 5 SB, .298 BA, 77 BB, 91 K, .392 OBP, .503 SLG
At best, Lowrie will get a cup of coffee in September for the Red Sox, as he currently doesn't have a place to play. He hit 47 doubles last year, so he could be one of those players who finds a little more power in his bat as he develops. I'm not as high on Lowrie as John Sickels is, but I still view Lowrie as a strong B+ prospect who is worth a high pick in leagues with farm systems.
Matt Wieters. 2007 DNP (college)
Guys like Wieters are problematic in terms of where to rank them. On the one hand, I don't like drafting players with zero professional experience. On the other, I know that if I have a high pick, Wieters is the best player on the board, and I don't pick him, then someone else will. My advice is only to make a pick like this if you already have a deep farm system and can afford to wait. Getting someone with more impact/upside is better if you're playing for this year.
Grade B+
There are 17 of these hitters in the American League. Rather than give a full profile of each, I thought I'd break them out into four categories for 2008: high impact, possible impact, unlikely or low impact, and zero impact.
High Impact: Adam Jones, Daric Barton
Jones should get a clean shot at a right-field job in 2008, whether it is with the Mariners or the Orioles. His poor K/BB means that he might hit .240, but Jones can definitely mash and will still put up decent power numbers if he gets 450-500 AB. Bid $12. Barton is the better long-term prospect than Jones, but he won't hit for power initially. He's a sweet hitter, though, and I think the A's will break camp with him as their starting 1B. Bid $11.
Possible Impact: Brandon Wood, Carlos Gonzalez
Unless the Angels move Chone Figgins, it looks like Wood's best path to the majors is now at SS. For the moment, the Angels seem committed to starting the year with Erick Aybar at the position, so I suspect Wood will go to AAA to start the year. There's a good chance, though, that he'll be up in June if Aybar struggles. I'm starting to worry about Wood. He can clearly hit for power, but his batting average and K/BB last year in the minors means he might hit .230 out of the gate. Gonzalez probably should be moved into the unlikely impact column. He spent 2007 in Double-A, and his K/BB rates are also poor. He looks to me like a work in progress, and I think the A's will stick with Emil Brown all year in the OF, unless Gonzalez really rips it up at AAA.
Low Impact: Travis Snider, Reid Brignac, Jeff Clement, Jose Tabata
Snider's opportunity would come only if Adam Lind doesn't produce this year. It's likely the Blue Jays leave him in AAA all year. Brignac will probably push Jason Barrett aside in 2009, but I don't think the Rays have much to gain by flipping Barrett in July and sticking Brignac at SS in early August. Clement has the best shot of all the players in this group of putting up 250-300 worth of AB, but he doesn't have position right now. I think Clement will eventually become a 1B/DH type, but the Mariners probably will stick with Richie Sexson at 1B and Jose Vidro at DH all year. Tabata really belongs in the last group, as I don't think the Yankees would bring up a 19-year old who is still developing and played all of last year at High A-ball. But he is a special talent, and the Yanks brought up lesser light Melky Cabrera at the age of 20 for a cup of coffee in 2005. Don't be utterly shocked if Tabata spends a couple of weeks at the stadium in 2008.
No Impact: Lars Anderson, Elvis Andrus, Chris Carter (OAK), Hank Conger, Chris Davis, Desmond Jennings, Mike Moustakas, Carlos Triunfel.
These are all farm picks for leagues with deep systems or leagues that allow you to keep farm players for long stretches of time. You'll hear talk of Triunel possibly making the majors late this year, but I think the Mariners will stick with Yuniesky Betancourt all year.
One of the more significant challenges in Roto, however, is figuring out what kind of price tag to put on these guys in your auction. Ratings often take defense into account, which most Roto leagues don't use. Furthermore, some of these projections look at the bigger, long-term picture of where these players will be in five years. As a baseball fan, that's the kind of information I devour, but as a Roto player, knowing that Jose Tabata is going to be a superstar in 2013 doesn't do me much good now.
With that in mind, I thought I'd look at some of John Sickels' B+ or higher prospects from his Minor League Ball blog and put up some early 4x4 bid limits for the guys who will have an impact in 2008.
Grade A
Evan Longoria 2007 Numbers (AA/AAA): 485 AB, 26 HR, 95 RBI, 4 SB, .299 BA, 73 BB, 110 K, .402 OBP, .510 SLG
In the American League, Evan Longoria is in a class by himself as a prospect. Assuming he wins the Rays third-base job, he'll play 2008 as a 22-year old, and I'd agree with Law that Longoria's the morning-line favorite for A.L. Rookie of the Year. From a Roto standpoint, though, I wouldn't break the bank on him. Most likely, Longoria will initially be a 15-20 HR hitter with a .260 to .270 average. That's great for a 22-year old kid, but it might not even put him in the first tier of A.L. third basemen. Bid $14.
Grade A-
Jacoby Ellsbury 2007 (AA/AAA/Majors): 552 AB, 5 HR, 59 RBI, 50 SB, .330 BA, 46 BB, 60 K, .381 OBP, .442 SLG
I like Ellsbury, but the power he showed in his 116 major league AB for the Red Sox probably isn't sustainable, at least not in the short-term. I also don't think he's going to run quite as much for the Red Sox, a slightly more conservative speed team than most. I'm not as apt or willing to run him into the ground as some of his detractors are, and I think he'll eventually be a fine 10-15 HR player with very good speed. But don't get sucked into the postseason hype. Bid $14.
Jed Lowrie 2007 (AA/AAA): 497 AB, 13 HR, 70 RBI, 5 SB, .298 BA, 77 BB, 91 K, .392 OBP, .503 SLG
At best, Lowrie will get a cup of coffee in September for the Red Sox, as he currently doesn't have a place to play. He hit 47 doubles last year, so he could be one of those players who finds a little more power in his bat as he develops. I'm not as high on Lowrie as John Sickels is, but I still view Lowrie as a strong B+ prospect who is worth a high pick in leagues with farm systems.
Matt Wieters. 2007 DNP (college)
Guys like Wieters are problematic in terms of where to rank them. On the one hand, I don't like drafting players with zero professional experience. On the other, I know that if I have a high pick, Wieters is the best player on the board, and I don't pick him, then someone else will. My advice is only to make a pick like this if you already have a deep farm system and can afford to wait. Getting someone with more impact/upside is better if you're playing for this year.
Grade B+
There are 17 of these hitters in the American League. Rather than give a full profile of each, I thought I'd break them out into four categories for 2008: high impact, possible impact, unlikely or low impact, and zero impact.
High Impact: Adam Jones, Daric Barton
Jones should get a clean shot at a right-field job in 2008, whether it is with the Mariners or the Orioles. His poor K/BB means that he might hit .240, but Jones can definitely mash and will still put up decent power numbers if he gets 450-500 AB. Bid $12. Barton is the better long-term prospect than Jones, but he won't hit for power initially. He's a sweet hitter, though, and I think the A's will break camp with him as their starting 1B. Bid $11.
Possible Impact: Brandon Wood, Carlos Gonzalez
Unless the Angels move Chone Figgins, it looks like Wood's best path to the majors is now at SS. For the moment, the Angels seem committed to starting the year with Erick Aybar at the position, so I suspect Wood will go to AAA to start the year. There's a good chance, though, that he'll be up in June if Aybar struggles. I'm starting to worry about Wood. He can clearly hit for power, but his batting average and K/BB last year in the minors means he might hit .230 out of the gate. Gonzalez probably should be moved into the unlikely impact column. He spent 2007 in Double-A, and his K/BB rates are also poor. He looks to me like a work in progress, and I think the A's will stick with Emil Brown all year in the OF, unless Gonzalez really rips it up at AAA.
Low Impact: Travis Snider, Reid Brignac, Jeff Clement, Jose Tabata
Snider's opportunity would come only if Adam Lind doesn't produce this year. It's likely the Blue Jays leave him in AAA all year. Brignac will probably push Jason Barrett aside in 2009, but I don't think the Rays have much to gain by flipping Barrett in July and sticking Brignac at SS in early August. Clement has the best shot of all the players in this group of putting up 250-300 worth of AB, but he doesn't have position right now. I think Clement will eventually become a 1B/DH type, but the Mariners probably will stick with Richie Sexson at 1B and Jose Vidro at DH all year. Tabata really belongs in the last group, as I don't think the Yankees would bring up a 19-year old who is still developing and played all of last year at High A-ball. But he is a special talent, and the Yanks brought up lesser light Melky Cabrera at the age of 20 for a cup of coffee in 2005. Don't be utterly shocked if Tabata spends a couple of weeks at the stadium in 2008.
No Impact: Lars Anderson, Elvis Andrus, Chris Carter (OAK), Hank Conger, Chris Davis, Desmond Jennings, Mike Moustakas, Carlos Triunfel.
These are all farm picks for leagues with deep systems or leagues that allow you to keep farm players for long stretches of time. You'll hear talk of Triunel possibly making the majors late this year, but I think the Mariners will stick with Yuniesky Betancourt all year.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
CBS Sportsline Auctions Next Week
For the 5th consecutive year, John and I will be participating in the CBS Sportsline expert auction. And, yes, this year Eric Mack over at CBS Sportsline has decided to switch from draft to auction format.
In 2004, we won and then in 2005 came in 2nd, but have slipped since then, finishing in the second division due to the first round selection of Derrek Lee in 2006 and Chris Carpenter in 2007. I'm hoping to reverse that trend this year, and I think the auction format, which I'm more comfortable with, might help.
For the first time, the Patton & Co. team will be participating in both the A.L. and N.L. only auctions. The A.L. auction is Tuesday, February 5, while the N.L. auction is on Wednesday, February 6. Both start at 1 p.m. Eastern Time.
I'll post more details as far as being able to track these auctions as they become available.
In 2004, we won and then in 2005 came in 2nd, but have slipped since then, finishing in the second division due to the first round selection of Derrek Lee in 2006 and Chris Carpenter in 2007. I'm hoping to reverse that trend this year, and I think the auction format, which I'm more comfortable with, might help.
For the first time, the Patton & Co. team will be participating in both the A.L. and N.L. only auctions. The A.L. auction is Tuesday, February 5, while the N.L. auction is on Wednesday, February 6. Both start at 1 p.m. Eastern Time.
I'll post more details as far as being able to track these auctions as they become available.
Monday, January 28, 2008
Monitoring Your Dollars and Slots: A Real Life Example
My post last week re-visiting sas4's example of a player going for an exorbitant sum of money didn't ring true to one of my readers. Eugene Freedman responded:
In my A.L. last year, the strongest move of the auction came when one owner snuck Mike Lowell in for $8 in the 9th Round of the Auction. His inflated bid price was $15, so this owner got himself a sneaky $7 bargain. What happened? Were the other owners asleep? Or had they too filled in their rosters with players who they believed were markedly better?
At the time, the team that bought Lowell entered the bidding with $17 to spend on 7 slots, for a maximum bid of $11.
Team B had closed out his bidding for the day one player earlier, buying Royce Clayton at $4. His corner infielders were freezes Jason Giambi ($15), Andy Marte ($10) and Kevin Youkilis ($8). He bought Richie Sexson at $26 as the 21st player called (Round 2), freezing himself out of corners very early.
Four other teams were locked out at either 3B or CO when Lowell came up for bidding.
The other two teams decided to pass.
But he didn't just bring up Lowell randomly. He knew that Team H had a lot of slots to fill, and probably wasn't going to chase Lowell to $12. That would have left H with $10 with nine players to buy. H didn't know who he wanted to buy at that point, but he also didn't believe that Lowell was worth enough to spend all but $1 of his maximum bid.
Team G was in a full blown rebuilding mode. It was only an educated guess, but Lowell's eventual owner figured that G was targeting someone like Ryan Garko at corner, and not a grizzled vet like Mike Lowell. He figured correctly.
The simplest way to get a player late is to simply wait everyone out. However, there are times where that won't work, and in most leagues you have to call someone out. Knowing not only the slots and dollars left, but the dynamic of the owners you're bidding against as well, is vital to making sure you win these key battles in the endgame.
In my Stage 3 league, the owners track everyone else's money the entire draft. Rarely do good players like Brett go so late, but usually what happens is that teams know each other's max bid. When there's one good MI and 3 teams that can take him, the team with the most money will announce the player at the next best max bid, saving one dollar versus the Brett scenario and pissing off the other owner. Or, if the other owner announces the player cheaper, the one with more will jump to the max bid of his competitors immediately, closing out bidding. I did that with Garko last year for $8 at corner.My experience is generally the same as Eugene's. What sas4 described is something that used to happen in Stage 2, and with players who weren't even as good as Brett. More commonly, an owner would spend $17 on someone like Tony Pena Jr.: not because Pena was a hot commodity, but becaues two owners had left way too much money on the table, and they were bidding hot and heavy for the only starting SS left on the board.
In my A.L. last year, the strongest move of the auction came when one owner snuck Mike Lowell in for $8 in the 9th Round of the Auction. His inflated bid price was $15, so this owner got himself a sneaky $7 bargain. What happened? Were the other owners asleep? Or had they too filled in their rosters with players who they believed were markedly better?
At the time, the team that bought Lowell entered the bidding with $17 to spend on 7 slots, for a maximum bid of $11.
Team B had closed out his bidding for the day one player earlier, buying Royce Clayton at $4. His corner infielders were freezes Jason Giambi ($15), Andy Marte ($10) and Kevin Youkilis ($8). He bought Richie Sexson at $26 as the 21st player called (Round 2), freezing himself out of corners very early.
Four other teams were locked out at either 3B or CO when Lowell came up for bidding.
- Team K froze B.J. Upton at $10 at 3B (keep in mind he was eligible at 3B from 2006) and Matt Stairs at DH at $2. He closed out his 3B by buying A-Rod, the fourth player called in the auction, at $42. Given the close to $50 worth of profits Team K got from its corners, he shouldn't cry over losing out on Lowell.
- Team J froze Alex Gordon ($5) and Casey Kotchman ($10). He bought Travis Hafner at DH in Round 3 for $33 and closed out his corners with Hank Blalock for $23 in Round 4.
- Team L froze Jim Thome ($27) at DH, Ryan Shealy ($15) at 1B and Ty Wigginton ($1) at 3B (he couldn't move Wigginton to 2B or MI because those position were locked up, too). L locked out his corners with Melvin Mora at $18 in Round 6.
- In the 8th round, I closed out my third base slot by buying Joe Crede for $14. I already had Mark Teahen frozen at $12, and had purchased both Brandon Inge and Casey Blake earlier at $10. In my case, I had Crede at $18 inflated. I knew Lowell might be a greater bargain, but I decided I wanted the best player on the board if I was going to close out the position. Oops.
The other two teams decided to pass.
- Team G. Max bid when Lowell came up: $18. Bought after Lowell: Ryan Garko $11, Josh Phelps $1, Brandon Morrow $2, Shannon Stewart $4.
- Team H. Max bid when Lowell came up: $13. This team had 10 slots to fill at the time Lowell was purchased. Bought after Lowell: Omar Infante $1, Jason Michaels $2, Dan Johnson $2, Travis Buck $8, Casey Janssen $1, John Buck $3, Kelly Shoppach $2, Matt Clement $1, Scott Proctor $1, Luis Vizcaino $1.
But he didn't just bring up Lowell randomly. He knew that Team H had a lot of slots to fill, and probably wasn't going to chase Lowell to $12. That would have left H with $10 with nine players to buy. H didn't know who he wanted to buy at that point, but he also didn't believe that Lowell was worth enough to spend all but $1 of his maximum bid.
Team G was in a full blown rebuilding mode. It was only an educated guess, but Lowell's eventual owner figured that G was targeting someone like Ryan Garko at corner, and not a grizzled vet like Mike Lowell. He figured correctly.
The simplest way to get a player late is to simply wait everyone out. However, there are times where that won't work, and in most leagues you have to call someone out. Knowing not only the slots and dollars left, but the dynamic of the owners you're bidding against as well, is vital to making sure you win these key battles in the endgame.
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