Monitoring Your Dollars and Slots: A Real Life Example

My post last week re-visiting sas4's example of a player going for an exorbitant sum of money didn't ring true to one of my readers. Eugene Freedman responded:

In my Stage 3 league, the owners track everyone else's money the entire draft. Rarely do good players like Brett go so late, but usually what happens is that teams know each other's max bid. When there's one good MI and 3 teams that can take him, the team with the most money will announce the player at the next best max bid, saving one dollar versus the Brett scenario and pissing off the other owner. Or, if the other owner announces the player cheaper, the one with more will jump to the max bid of his competitors immediately, closing out bidding. I did that with Garko last year for $8 at corner.

My experience is generally the same as Eugene's. What sas4 described is something that used to happen in Stage 2, and with players who weren't even as good as Brett. More commonly, an owner would spend $17 on someone like Tony Pena Jr.: not because Pena was a hot commodity, but becaues two owners had left way too much money on the table, and they were bidding hot and heavy for the only starting SS left on the board.

In my A.L. last year, the strongest move of the auction came when one owner snuck Mike Lowell in for $8 in the 9th Round of the Auction. His inflated bid price was $15, so this owner got himself a sneaky $7 bargain. What happened? Were the other owners asleep? Or had they too filled in their rosters with players who they believed were markedly better?

At the time, the team that bought Lowell entered the bidding with $17 to spend on 7 slots, for a maximum bid of $11.

Team B had closed out his bidding for the day one player earlier, buying Royce Clayton at $4. His corner infielders were freezes Jason Giambi ($15), Andy Marte ($10) and Kevin Youkilis ($8). He bought Richie Sexson at $26 as the 21st player called (Round 2), freezing himself out of corners very early.

Four other teams were locked out at either 3B or CO when Lowell came up for bidding.

• Team K froze B.J. Upton at $10 at 3B (keep in mind he was eligible at 3B from 2006) and Matt Stairs at DH at $2. He closed out his 3B by buying A-Rod, the fourth player called in the auction, at $42. Given the close to $50 worth of profits Team K got from its corners, he shouldn't cry over losing out on Lowell.
  
• Team J froze Alex Gordon ($5) and Casey Kotchman ($10). He bought Travis Hafner at DH in Round 3 for $33 and closed out his corners with Hank Blalock for $23 in Round 4.
• Team L froze Jim Thome ($27) at DH, Ryan Shealy ($15) at 1B and Ty Wigginton ($1) at 3B (he couldn't move Wigginton to 2B or MI because those position were locked up, too). L locked out his corners with Melvin Mora at $18 in Round 6.
  
• In the 8th round, I closed out my third base slot by buying Joe Crede for $14. I already had Mark Teahen frozen at $12, and had purchased both Brandon Inge and Casey Blake earlier at $10. In my case, I had Crede at $18 inflated. I knew Lowell might be a greater bargain, but I decided I wanted the best player on the board if I was going to close out the position. Oops.

That left six other teams who still needed a 3B, CO, and/or DH. Of those six teams, four could not outbid the $8 spent on Lowell.

The other two teams decided to pass.

• Team G. Max bid when Lowell came up: $18. Bought after Lowell: Ryan Garko $11, Josh Phelps $1, Brandon Morrow $2, Shannon Stewart $4.
  
• Team H. Max bid when Lowell came up: $13. This team had 10 slots to fill at the time Lowell was purchased. Bought after Lowell: Omar Infante $1, Jason Michaels $2, Dan Johnson $2, Travis Buck $8, Casey Janssen $1, John Buck $3, Kelly Shoppach $2, Matt Clement $1, Scott Proctor $1, Luis Vizcaino $1.
  

Could the eventual winner have lost out on Mike Lowell? It was obviously possible.

But he didn't just bring up Lowell randomly. He knew that Team H had a lot of slots to fill, and probably wasn't going to chase Lowell to $12. That would have left H with $10 with nine players to buy. H didn't know who he wanted to buy at that point, but he also didn't believe that Lowell was worth enough to spend all but $1 of his maximum bid.

Team G was in a full blown rebuilding mode. It was only an educated guess, but Lowell's eventual owner figured that G was targeting someone like Ryan Garko at corner, and not a grizzled vet like Mike Lowell. He figured correctly.

The simplest way to get a player late is to simply wait everyone out. However, there are times where that won't work, and in most leagues you have to call someone out. Knowing not only the slots and dollars left, but the dynamic of the owners you're bidding against as well, is vital to making sure you win these key battles in the endgame.