Once upon a time, long, long ago, there was a fantasy league concluding its auction. Almost all of the rosters were filled and only two teams had any money left. Very few serviceable players were available except for one, George Brett, who was at the pinnacle of his career.I've already discussed the fact that, while inflation isn't applied in a linear fashion to every player, inflation at the end of every auction does indeed compute. If there are $1,200 left to spend on $1,000 worth of talent, inflation will be 20%. If you believe that A-Rod is worth $50 this year and he goes for $54, he will be $6 cheaper than his inflation value. As a result, six additional dollars will be spent on other players to make up for that difference.
The bidding was fast and since owner A had $62 left and owner B had $59 left, Brett sold for $60 -- to owner A.
Owner B rounded out his team with a number of lousy players as the other owners shook their heads.At the end of that auction, Brett was worth $60.
10 Most Expensive Players, BABG
| Player | Cost | Proj. | INF | +/- | $ |
| Carl Crawford | $50 | $41 | $49 | -1 | $41 |
| Joe Nathan | $45 | $33 | $39 | -6 | $39 |
| Vladimir Guerrero | $44 | $37 | $44 | 0 | $33 |
| Alex Rodriguez | $42 | $37 | $44 | +2 | $54 |
| Daisuke Matsuzaka | $40 | $25 | $30 | -10 | $13 |
| Francisco Rodriguez | $40 | $32 | $38 | -2 | $35 |
| David Ortiz | $38 | $32 | $38 | 0 | $36 |
| Ichiro Suzuki | $38 | $34 | $40 | +2 | $40 |
| Bobby Abreu | $37 | $32 | $38 | +1 | $29 |
| Mariano Rivera | $37 | $32 | $38 | +1 | $28 |
| Totals | $411 | $335 | $398 | -13 | $348 |
These were the ten most expensive players in my American League auction in 2007. Rather than present this in a round-by-round format, I've decided to look at the 10 most expensive players purchased at auction.
The cost column is what each player cost. The projection column is what I determined these players were worth using a combination of Alex Patton's projections plus my own modifications. The inflation factor in my league was 18% or so, and that's the INF column. The +/- is the inflation estimate minus the cost, and the $ column shows us what each player did as an additional frame of reference.
In a Stage Three league like mine, you can see that differences of opinion don't exist. The "bargains" are players like A-Rod and Ichiro, who go $2 under what my inflation projection was. Eight out of 10 players go within $2 of their inflation price one way or the other. We know that trolling for bargains in an auction is hard, but novices might not realize that it's this hard.
Nathan and D-Mat are examples of owners attempting to either ensure they buy enough of a category in Nathan's case, or trying to corner the lone potential ace starting pitcher in the auction. As a result, there's a minus on the board, even compared to the league's inflation price, that must correct itself before the auction ends.
Notice that, even though this group outperforms its projected value by $13, it is still $63 short of what the market paid. That money won't be made up for in the auction; that is the actual inflation rate. In this case, the actual inflation rate for this group of players is 18%, which matches my projected inflation rate.
Next 10 (11-20) Most Expensive Players, BABG
| Player | Cost | Proj. | INF | +/- | $ |
| Derek Jeter | $35 | $30 | $35 | 0 | $28 |
| Manny Ramirez | $35 | $30 | $35 | 0 | $20 |
| Miguel Tejada | $35 | $31 | $37 | +2 | $20 |
| Travis Hafner | $33 | $29 | $34 | +1 | $19 |
| Michael Young | $33 | $25 | $30 | -3 | $27 |
| Paul Konerko | $32 | $27 | $32 | 0 | $19 |
| Jermaine Dye | $29 | $25 | $30 | +1 | $17 |
| Joe Mauer | $29 | $26 | $31 | +2 | $14 |
| Hideki Matsui | $29 | $24 | $28 | -1 | $24 |
| Brian Roberts | $29 | $25 | $30 | +1 | $35 |
| Totals | $319 | $272 | $322 | +3 | $223 |
In hindsight, this is a far worse group of players, losing $96, or $8 per player. Without the benefit of hindsight, though, take out the overpays for D-Mat and Nathan, and this is practically the same group, going $3 under inflation par.
That sounds good. Until, that is, you realize that you can't simply suck along with inflation and maintain the value on your team.
Thankfully, D-Mat and Nathan ensure that there will be some bargains coming along. And I'm certain those bargains will be in the next group.
Next 10 (21-30) Most Expensive Players, BABG
| Player | Cost | Proj. | INF | +/- | $ |
| Johnny Damon | $28 | $25 | $30 | +2 | $22 |
| Alexis Rios | $27 | $23 | $27 | 0 | $30 |
| Richie Sexson | $26 | $23 | $27 | +1 | $6 |
| Gary Sheffield | $26 | $22 | $26 | 0 | $25 |
| Josh Barfield | $25 | $21 | $25 | 0 | $8 |
| Troy Glaus | $25 | $17 | $20 | -5 | $13 |
| Rich Harden | $25 | $15 | $18 | -7 | $4 |
| Julio Lugo | $24 | $19 | $22 | -2 | $18 |
| Hank Blalock | $23 | $14 | $17 | -6 | $10 |
| Aubrey Huff | $23 | $16 | $19 | -4 | $15 |
| Totals | $252 | $195 | $231 | -21 | $151 |
No, the market correction doesn't come here. If anything, this is where the differences of opinion are greater, so the market is going to pay par or more on almost all of these players.
Next 10 (31-40) Most Expensive Players, BABG
| Player | Cost | Proj. | INF | +/- | $ |
| Nick Swisher | $23 | $20 | $24 | +1 | $16 |
| Eric Chavez | $22 | $17 | $20 | -2 | $9 |
| Kelvim Escobar | $22 | $16 | $19 | -3 | $25 |
| Joe Borowski | $21 | $17 | $20 | -1 | $28 |
| Orlando Cabrera | $21 | $16 | $19 | -2 | $26 |
| Mike Cuddyer | $21 | $17 | $20 | -1 | $17 |
| Adrian Beltre | $20 | $18 | $21 | +1 | $27 |
| J.D. Drew | $20 | $17 | $20 | 0 | $12 |
| Mike Piazza | $19 | $18 | $21 | +2 | $8 |
| Luis Castillo | $18 | $14 | $17 | -1 | $9 |
| Totals | $207 | $170 | $201 | -6 | $177 |
And it doesn't come here either.
In an auction like this, where the losses are slow and steady, your bargains are going to come in the endgame. You'll find an $8 OF sitting around who you might spend $3 on. You're not going to find a hitter with a $40 inflation projection sneaking to you for $35.
The good news about this fact is that you won't get involved in a $60 bidding war for Carl Crawford. We Stage Three owners count our pennies, and we will spend within $1-2 on most players' perceived value.
The bad news is that you'll have to buy two or three of these players above if you want to spend all of your money. Which means you'll have to take a player, or two, at inflation par. If you don't, you will be chasing something worse than a superstar. You'll be chasing a $10 player to $25, since you'll have left all your money on the table.
2 comments:
And Mike is right, of course, as he pointed out in prior posts. There were some bargains as we reached the endgame; Mike Lowell being one of the biggest, going for $8.
Inflation tracking is something that I struggled with for many years, but it is a habit worth perfecting. I've become a much better auction player (let's leave D-Mat out of this conversation) now that I have the fundamentals of inflation under control.
On the Brett example- In my Stage 3 league, the owners track everyone else's money the entire draft. Rarely do good players like Brett go so late, but usually what happens is that teams know each other's max bid. When there's one good MI and 3 teams that can take him, the team with the most money will announce the player at the next best max bid, saving one dollar versus the Brett scenario and pissing off the other owner. Or, if the other owner announces the player cheaper, the one with more will jump to the max bid of his competitors immediately, closing out bidding. I did that with Garko last year for $8 at corner.
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