This is the final part of a four-part series examining first half versus second half statistics, with the five biggest jumps and swoons from one half to the next. Today, I'll look at National League pitchers.
Top 5 Surges
1) Adam Wainwright
Pre All-Star: 7-7, 102 1/3 IP 4.66 ERA, 1.534 WHIP, 59 K, 40 BB, 9 HR, .291 BAA.
Post All-Star: 7-5, 99 2/3 IP 2.71 ERA, 1.254 WHIP, 77 K, 30 BB, 4 HR, .245 BAA.
Since Wainwright was switched from the pen to the rotation last year, you would have expected the opposite: a lights-out performance out of the gate, followed by a swoon in the second half. Instead, Wainwright was money in the second half, posting a 6.95 K/9 rate, lowering his walks and home runs allowed, and putting himself closer to the elite pitchers. Most of the damage done to Wainwright was done in April (.331 BAA) and May (.339); the rest of the year he showed what the Cardinals and a lot of his owners expected. I think we'll see more of the same. Wainwright looks like a good candidate for a 3.4 ERA with a decent WHIP and a fair amount of whiffs in 2008.
2) Brandon Webb
Pre All-Star: 8-6, 131 IP 3.37 ERA, 1.275 WHIP, 112 K, 47 BB, 9 HR, .244 BAA.
Post All-Star: 10-4, 105 1/3 IP 2.56 ERA, 1.082 WHIP, 82 K, 25 BB, 3 HR, .228 BAA.
The fluctuations here have nothing to do with any change in Webb, but simply the vagaries of sample sizes. Webb put up a 4.37 ERA in May and a blistering 1.83 ERA in August, but he was solid the entire year. He keeps the ball on the ground with that hard, sinking fastball of his, and has shown he has the talent to be a Top 5 pitcher every year. Sometimes you can't read too much into one half of statistics versus another.
3) Doug Davis
Pre All-Star: 5-10, 105 2/3 IP 4.26 ERA, 1.751 WHIP, 77 K, 59 BB, 10 HR, .300 BAA.
Post All-Star: 8-2, 87 IP 4.24 ERA, 1.391 WHIP, 67 K, 36 BB, 11 HR, .258 BAA.
The walks are always going to be a concern with Davis, as he isn't dominating enough to pitch around them. He is good enough to have stretches where can get by despite them (as he did in the LCS against the Cubs last year), but he also has long stretches where he doesn't. If you're expecting him to bounce back a little bit next year, keep in mind that he absolutely did not like pitching in BOB, throwing up a 4.75 ERA and allowing a whopping 14 HR in 96 2/3 IP, despite similar K/BB rates to his seasonal average.
4) Carlos Zambrano
Pre All-Star: 10-7, 125 IP, 4.03 ERA, 1.296 WHIP, 107 K, 54 BB, 17 HR, .235 BAA.
Post All-Star: 8-6, 91 1/3 IP 3.84 ERA, 1.380 WHIP, 70 K, 47 BB, 6 HR, .231 BAA.
Zambrano seemed to bounce back in the second half, particularly due to the HR. However, reports out of Chicago were saying that his velocity was down, his mechanics were out of whack, and his head wasn't on straight. He signed a long-term deal late in the year, so maybe having his head out of negotiations will help. But I'm worried about his slippage in K/IP. I think that Zambrano's logged a lot of innings on that arm at a relatively young age, and could be an injury risk in 2008.
5) John Smoltz
Pre All-Star: 9-5, 105 2/3 IP, 3.07 ERA, 1.230 WHIP, 96 K, 22 BB, 9 HR, .260 BAA.
Post All-Star: 5-3, 100 IP, 3.15 ERA, 1.130 WHIP, 101 K, 25 BB, 9 HR, .237 BAA.
Smoltz's first half and second half stats aren't all that different. He's included here because there was an influx of hitting in the National League Post All-Star, and Smoltz held the line much better than most of his N.L. counterparts. Overall, his numbers indicate that there isn't much to indicate that he's going to slow down in his Age 41 season. Those years he pitched out of the pen might have helped him, and it's entirely possible that he'll continue pitching at this level for another 2-3 years before finally regressing due to age. However, it's also possible, at his age, that the wheels will simply come off, so bid accordingly.
Top 5 N.L. Drops
1) Ian Snell
Pre All-Star: 7-5, 116 2/3 IP, 2.98 ERA, 1.174 WHIP, 93 K, 33 BB, 9 HR, .239 BAA.
Post All-Star: 2-7, 91 1/3 IP, 4.83 ERA, 1.533 WHIP, 84 K, 35 BB, 13 HR, .294 BAA.
2) Tom Gorzelanny
Pre All-Star: 9-4, 119 IP, 3.10 ERA, 1.244 WHIP, 75 K, 35 BB, 9 HR, .249 BAA.
Post All-Star: 5-6, 82 2/3 IP, 5.01 ERA, 1.621 WHIP, 60 K, 33 BB, 9 HR, .306 BAA.
I lump Snell and Gorzelanny together because the conventional wisdom in Fantasy circles was that the Pirates coaching staff was somehow to blame for Snell and Gorzo's lousy second-half performances. I disagree - particularly in Snell's case - and think that you're talking about two 25-year-old pitchers who took their lumps because sometimes young pitchers do that. Snell's K/IP and BB/IP rates were pretty similar from one half to the next, and indicate that future success is likely. Gorzo's rates aren't as favorable, and I don't think he'll maintain that 3.10 ERA over the course of a full season, but a 3.8 ERA seems more realistic.
3) Matt Morris
Pre All-Star: 7-5, 114 IP, 3.55 ERA, 1.386 WHIP, 60 K, 37 BB, 8 HR, .273 BAA.
Post All-Star: 3-6, 84 2/3 IP, 6.70 ERA, 1.689 WHIP, 42 K, 24 BB, 10 HR, .338 BAA.
Morris has been getting by more on guile that stuff the last 3-4 years, and it all came crashing down for him in the second half of 2007. AT&T Park masked his decline in 2006, since he posted a 4.40 ERA at home compared to a 5.57 on the road. The move to PNC Park spiked his home ERA by nearly a full run, despite the fact that the BAA at both venues was very similar. Morris isn't going to put up a 6.7 ERA in 2008, but a 5.2 wouldn't surprise me, and it would be best to even avoid putting $1 here to find out if I'm wrong.
4) John Maine
Pre All-Star: 9-5, 109 2/3 IP, 2.71 ERA, 1.140 WHIP, 93 K, 40 BB, 10 HR, .214 BAA.
Post All-Star: 5-6, 81 1/3 IP, 5.53 ERA, 1.451 WHIP, 87 K, 35 BB, 13 HR, .261 BAA.
Even with the spike in HR/IP Post All-Star, the BAA and the K/IP don't support that ERA. Maine's K rate overall went up from 2007 to 2006. On the whole, he's a pitcher who is trending positively, and Shea Stadium will continue to help keep the HR below 30. He's worth a $15-17 bid this year.
5) Jason Marquis
Pre All-Star: 6-5, 105 1/3 IP, 3.67 ERA, 1.263 WHIP, 62 K, 41 BB, 12 HR, .231 BAA.
Post All-Star: 6-4, 86 1/3 IP, 5.73 ERA, 1.541 WHIP, 47 K, 35 BB, 10 HR, .284 BAA.
Marquis provides a great example of why ERA is such a misleading statistic. His OPS against in 2003-2005 was very similar to last year, yet his ERAs fluctuated from 5.53, 3.71, 4.13 and 4.60. He wasn't doing anything differently in 2004 that he's doing now; it's just that the statistic is tied to luck more than any appreciable skill. Marquis' low strikeout rate meant that the Pre All-Star ERA and WHIP were probably unsustainable and, sure enough, his Post All-Star numbers saw him come crashing down to Earth. He's a poor bet going forward.
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