This is part three of a four part series reviewing players who had large performance spikes or downturns from one half of the 2007 season to another. To qualify, a hitter must have logged at least 250 plate appearances both Pre All-Star and Post All-Star.
Top 5 N.L. Hitter Surges
1) Pat Burrell
Pre All-Star: 228 AB, 11 HR, 37 RBI, 0 SB, .215 BA, .378 OBP, .408 SLG.
Post All-Star: 244 AB, 19 HR, 60 RBI, 0 SB, .295 BA, .420 OBP, .590 SLG.
I wrote about Burrell's second half spike last September. While it's entirely possible that Burrell could put up a monster , MVP type year that resembles his 2007 Post All-Star performance, it's far more likely that this is just the law of averages working in both directions for Burrell. He's an extremely underrated player in Philadelphia who doesn't get any love, but he had the 4th highest OPS amongst N.L. outfielders in 2007. If you play in a league with OBP instead of BA, he's a hell of a lot more valuable.
2) Kevin Kouzmanoff
Pre All-Star: 232 AB, 7 HR, 37 RBI, 0 SB, .228 BA, .290 OBP, .384 SLG.
Post All-Star: 252 AB, 11 HR, 37 RBI, 1 SB, .317 BA, .366 OBP, .524 SLG.
In Kouz's case, most of his poor first half came in the form of an 8-for-71 April, with a 4/22 K/BB ratio to boot. Eliminate April from the equation, and Kouz hit a robust .302 in 413 AB. I don't think he's a .300 hitter, but Kouz should be good for a .280-.290 BA with 20-25 HR long term. Not a superstar, in other words, but a very good regular. The Indians would have been better off with Kouzmanoff than Andy Marte.
3) David Wright
Pre All-Star: 332 AB, 16 HR, 51 RBI, 18 SB, .292 BA, .373 OBP, .506 SLG.
Post All-Star: 272 AB, 14 HR, 56 RBI, 16 SB, .364 BA, .465 OBP, .596 SLG.
Wright will be 25 years old on Opening Day 2008, so I suppose he could get better. I doubt he's going to hit .364 over the course of a season, though. The power might go up a little, though I see him as more of a 30-35 HR guy than a 40-45 one, simply given the nature of his swing. This is a very special player who was already a $45 earner last year. I doubt he's going to become A-Rod, so I wouldn't go past $40. But that means I might not get Wright, either.
4) Freddy Sanchez
Pre All-Star: 324 AB, 2 HR, 32 RBI, 0 SB, .296 BA, .326 OBP, .383 SLG.
Post All-Star: 278 AB, 9 HR, 49 RBI, 0 SB, .313 BA, .362 OBP, .511 SLG.
The power spike is what jumps out here, and I'm not certain that it's merely a second half illusion. Sanchez's G/F rate dropped to 1.05 last year. Meanwhile, his strikeouts creeped up a little bit, giving him a 0.42 BB/SO ratio. Next year might be an odd year for Sanchez if this trend line continues: you could see him hit 20 HR but also hit .265. Watch him in Spring Training to see if he's still hitting more fly balls or if he's more interested in hitting line drives, like he did in 2006 when he hit .344.
5) Garrett Atkins
Pre All-Star: 321 AB, 13 HR, 53 RBI, 3 SB, .259 BA, .331 OBP, .445 SLG.
Post All-Star: 284 AB, 12 HR, 58 RBI, 0 SB, .349 BA, .409 OBP, .552 SLG.
Atkins' Post All-Star numbers are far more in line with his 2006 season, so that's the baseline I'm more likely to trust when deciding what Atkins is worth in 2008. Like his teammate Troy Tulowitzki, Atkins started off slow in April and May, putting up a 3/20/2/.233 line. He then caught fire, putting up OPSs by month of 999, 846, 950, and 1010. He should be fine to buy in 2008, and the plethora of top-tier 3B in the National League, Atkins' slow start, and the fact that Matt Holliday's banner year and Tulowitzki's coming out party muted the accomplishments of the rest of the team means you might get a mild bargain here.
Top 5 N.L. Hitter Swoons
1) Ken Griffey Jr.
Pre All-Star: 287 AB, 23 HR, 59 RBI, 3 SB, .286 BA, .390 OBP, .568 SLG.
Post All-Star: 241 AB, 7 HR, 34 RBI, 3 SB, .266 BA, .350 OBP, .411 SLG.
My supposition is that Griffey simply succumbed to fatigue in the second half. 2007 was the first year that Griffey cracked 600 plate appearances since 2000, his first year in Cincinnati. Like Carlos Guillen and Jermaine Dye, Griffey's a player who is hard to gauge because he's missed so much time over the years due to injuries. At 38 years of age, I would bet on Griffey to do what he's been doing the last three years: provide bunches of great statistics, but not over the course of an entire season. A 761 OPS isn't awful, by the way, just pedestrian for a starting major league outfielder.
2) Eric Byrnes
Pre All-Star: 359 AB, 14 HR, 49 RBI, 17 SB, .306 BA, .363 OBP, .496 SLG.
Post All-Star: 267 AB, 7 HR, 34 RBI, 33 SB, .258 BA, .340 OBP, .412 SLG.
A lot of touts are probably going to look at Byrnes' second-half stats and say that all of that running wore him down. It's possible. However, his overall OPS in 2007 is pretty much in line with his career stats, indicating that Byrnes didn't wear out so much as regress to the mean. He's an above average outfielder, in other words, but not someone who is going to hit 30 HR and drive in 100 runs. The good news, though, is that if all of that running didn't wear Byrnes out, there's no good reason for the D-backs to put the brakes on now. Another 50 SB season might not be out of the question. Go, Eric, go!
3) Jose Reyes
Pre All-Star: 358 AB, 4 HR, 35 RBI, 46 SB, .307 BA, .387 OBP, .439 SLG.
Post All-Star: 323 AB, 8 HR, 22 RBI, 32 SB, .251 BA, .316 OBP, .402 SLG.
Unlike Byrnes, Reyes might have worn down because of all the wear-and-tear stealing bases takes. But Reyes might also have been pressing in the ugliness that was the Mets September: he hit .205 in 117 AB and compiled a lousy 612 OPS. I'd expect Reyes to bounce back next year and build once again on his 2006 numbers. He once again increased his walk rate, and there wasn't the total collapse in BB/AB you would have expected. Like Wright, though, we're fortunate that Reyes is already at a peak price. Even if he does improve, you don't have to bet like he will.
4) J.J. Hardy
Pre All-Star: 326 AB, 18 HR, 54 RBI, 0 SB, .280 BA, .338 OBP, .495 SLG.
Post All-Star: 267 AB, 8 HR, 26 RBI, 2 SB, .273 BA, .305 OBP, .423 SLG.
The funny thing about Hardy is that his power was really the only big thing that dropped off in his second-half numbers. His walks dropped precipitously in the second half, down to a measly 12 in 267 AB. Hardy's big swoon came in June, when he hit .220 with a .366 SLG. His batting averages bounced back after that, but the power never came back with it. It's entirely possible that poor pitch selection in the second half gave Hardy fewer opportunities to hit ahead in the count, and he wasn't able to capitalize the way he did in the first half. It's also possible that pitchers adjusted to Hardy's new found power and began to pitcher differently to him. He strike me as more of a 20 HR hitter than a 40 HR guy, so I'm more willing to believe the the Pre All-Star numbers are a fluke than anything else.
5) Mark DeRosa
Pre All-Star: 261 AB, 7 HR, 49 RBI, 0 SB, .291 BA, .365 OBP, .452 SLG.
Post All-Star: 241 AB, 3 HR, 23 RBI, 1 SB, .295 BA, .378 OBP, .386 SLG.
DeRosa's "power" dropped off, but his inclusion is more indicative of the challenge of half-season sample sizes; his 2007 numbers are awfully close to his 2006 numbers, indicating that DeRosa was a little lucky in the first half and a little unlucky in the second. The good news is that he held his own, and that his 2006 campaign looks less like a fluke and more like the level of performance you might come to expect from this former utility man.
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