Pat Burrell. Post All-Star: 189 AB, 17 HR, 53 RBI, 0 SB, .328 BA, .445 OBP, .667 SLG.
Did you know that Pat Burrell had the best Post All-Star OPS in the N.L. and is tied for second in the majors (behind only A-Rod and tied with Jorge Posada)? I live in Philadelphia and didn't know that.
Something I've always said about Burrell is that he's not as much of a disappointment as his detractors think he is. Since his horrid 2003 (.209/21/64/0), Burrell has put up OPSs of 820, 893, 890 and 933 year-to-date. Overall, he ranks 4th in OPS amongst N.L. outfielders, behind Barry Bonds, Matt Holliday and Adam Dunn.
Is his second half a portent of Burrell finally living up to his potential? That's hard to say. 2008 is Burrell's walk year, and he doesn't strike me as a guy who is going to thrive in that kind of situation. If the Phillies do convince him to waive his no-trade clause and he's moved, he'll be hurt by the move out of CBP (he's got an amazing 1.042 OPS at home, versus a mortal .826 on the road).
I guess the moral with a guy like Burrell is that you can't read too much into half a year's worth of stats. Burrell will probably continue being a very good hitter who doesn't get his due, and isn't worth as much in Roto because of the walks and the lack of SB.
J.J. Hardy. Post All-Star: 204 AB, 6 HR, 21 RBI, 0 SB, .265 BA, .292 OBP, .412 SLG.
A lot of blame, justifiably so, has been laid to rest at the feet of the Brewers pitching staff for the team's epic collapse in the second half. Hardy, however, bears his fair share of the blame as well. His eight walks in 204 AB in Post All-Star says a lot; Hardy's been a lot less selective in the second half, and it shows up in the complete deterioration in his numbers. The fact that he's hitting .265 tells me that Hardy still can get to a few balls based on his ability, but his sudden free swinging ways aren't helping him or the Brewers. He might bounce back, but it's also possible that pitchers have the book on him now. Downgrade your 2008 bids accordingly.
Brad Hawpe. Post All-Star: 175 AB, 10 HR, 36 RBI, 0 SB, .234BA, .355 OBP, .457 SLG.
The power is still there, but Hawpe's second half numbers make alarm bells ring in my head. Overall, Hawpe's numbers are almost identical to last season's, and he's got two and a half weeks to pad them, but the spike in Ks in particular (67) in the second half make me wonder if pitchers are finally figuring him out. Like a lot of Rockies, Hawpe has a very favorable home/road split, but he's declined in the second half while a lot of his teammates have gone the other way. Be careful about making a big Roto investment next year; Hawpe's .179 BA against lefties could land him in a platoon, which would hamper his value.
Carlos Lee. Post All-Star: 219 AB, 11 HR, 32 RBI, 2 SB, .292 BA, .340 OBP, .507 SLG.
I thought Lee was worth including because the perception is that he's had a bad second-half. The reality is that his numbers are very similar to his first-half numbers, with the exception of RBI (he drove in 73 in the first half). His 869 Pre All-Star OPS is barely higher than his 847 Post All-Star OPS. Lee is sort of the anti-Pat Burrell; his Roto numbers are typically better than his numbers in reality, and he's never posted an OPS over 900, not even in the favorable venues he's played in most of his career. Still, his 30 HR/100 RBI/.290 BA that he'll probably reach again this year makes him plenty valuable. Just keep allowing people to knock him and then try to sneak him in to the top of the second tier of pricing (high $20s).
Jose Reyes. Post All-Star: 248 AB, 6 HR, 15 RBI, 30 SB, .270 BA, .327 OBP, .427 SLG.
Forget all of the other numbers; it's the OBP that hurts a player like Reyes and makes claims by his detractors that he's overrated valid. The conventional wisdom on Reyes is that he's wearing down because he's run so much this year. I don't know if I buy that; the SB/CS ratio in the first half (46/11) isn't all that much better than his rate in the second half (30/7). What's worth looking at is his BB/SO ratios. In the first half: 47/46. In the second half: 20/23. In other words, he's making just as good contact as he did in the first half, but his pitch selection isn't as good. As a result, the quality of pitches he's seeing and hitting isn't as good either. It's just a theory, but based on Reyes' old free-swinging ways, it's a theory that's not without merit. Of course, this is all a pie-in-the-sky argument to Rotisserie players; as long as Reyes is stealing 70+ bases, it doesn't really matter too much what his batting average looks like as long as he doesn't hit .220 and risk losing his real-life job.
Freddy Sanchez. Post All-Star: 236 AB, 9 HR, 46 RBI, 0 SB, .335 BA, .388 OBP, .555 SLG.
Unlike Burrell, I think Sanchez's second half could predict a little more power down the line. Some players - particularly late bloomers like Sanchez - tend to start turning those doubles into home runs as they settle into their playing weight. I'm not expecting Sanchez to hit 25 HR next year, but 15-20 wouldn't surprise me. If he can maintain that .300 AVG, then Sanchez could actually turn into a bargain.
Troy Tulowitzki. Post All-Star: 216 AB, 12 HR, 46 RBI, 2 SB, .306 BA, .370 OBP, .542 SLG.
Most of these splits are pretty unsexy, with the exception of the HR and SLG spike. That's a nice little jump for a 22-year old middle infielder in his first full major league season, Coors factor or no. As many good shortstops as there are in the National League, you could actually score a mild bargain with Tulo if this trendline continues and he hits 25-30 HR next year. It's certainly not out of the question.
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