Yesterday, I talked about a handful of hitters and their stats "Post All-Star". I'm certainly not doing anything new here; John Benson has probably been touting the advantages of first half/second half splits since the late 1980s.
Pitchers are even harder to pin down because the sample sizes are even smaller. Sixty or 70 innings pitched might not tell you much about anything. While acknowledging that the sample sizes are small, it is worth looking at a few cases to figure out what, if anything, can be read into these numbers.
Note that all stats do not include today/tonight's games.
Chad Gaudin: Post All-Star: 2-8, 68 IP 7.02 ERA, 1.765 WHIP, 61 K, 39 BB, 13 HR, .300 BAA.
Including Gaudin is simply mean to his owners. We can all remember some blow dry on Baseball Tonight singing Gaudin's praises when he was on top of the world at the All-Star break. Experienced owners knew to shake his hand and take 50 cents on the dollar; Devil Rays retreads typically don't do well in their next venue. The K/IP are encouraging, but Gaudin clearly is going to need a better out pitch if he's going to succeed in the majors.
Felix Hernandez: Post All-Star: 7-3, 77 1/3 IP 4.66 ERA, 1.513 WHIP, 64 K, 24 BB, 10 HR, .299 BAA.
I wish I knew what to make of Felix Hernandez. Last year, he was bad in the first half but seemed to be slowly putting it together in the second half. This year, he was OK in the first half and the wheels just seemed to come off Post All-Star. I know a lot of it can be chalked up to the fact that he's a 21-year old kid, but geez, a guy with this kind of stuff should do better. There is nothing encouraging in those numbers up there and, in a start-over league, I'm sure my bid limit wouldn't get Felix.
Daisuke Matsuzaka: Post All-Star: 4-6, 64 2/3 IP 5.57 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 56 K, 32 BB, 11 HR, .263 BAA.
Since I'm not one to rub it in, I'm not going to use Google to find all of the touts or fans who were convinced that D-Mat was going to pitch like Johan Santana this year. And part of the reason I'm not going to do that is because I'm not convinced that D-Mat is a bust. His K/IP and BAA are both encouraging; for a guy who is supposedly so hittable, a .263 BAA isn't terrible. D-Mat has the same problem he's had all year. He seems to lack that killer instinct and doesn't have a favorite pitch that he just rears back and fires. He almost seems to be painting rather than pitching. Whether the Red Sox get to him in time or not is an open question. But, like Felix, this is another ride I probably won't be on next year; someone will pay too much and hope they hit the jackpot.
Dustin McGowan: Post All-Star: 5-4, 73 2/3 IP 3.18 ERA, 1.100 WHIP, 61 K, 22 BB, 8 HR, .216 BAA
McGowan is probably going to be on a lot of tout's "sleeper" lists in the winter magazines, particularly the ones that come out early and are written for the less studious players. Anyone who has been paying attention at all knows that McGowan has come into his own in a huge way in the second half this year, allowing 3 ER or less in 10 straight starts. His stuff is downright nasty, including a 95-97 MPH fastball with a little sink on it, leading to a solid 1.81 G/F.
Be careful, though, about putting a $15+ bid on McGowan next spring. The HR/IP rate has gone up, and the K/IP, while better than his first half numbers, isn't demonstrably better. A large part of McGowan's run has come against some softer offenses; the luck of the draw means he should get more of the Boston/New York match-ups that A.L. East pitchers are stuck getting.
None of this is to say that McGowan won't eventually be an elite pitcher. He just might hit some bumps in the road along the way.
Kevin Millwood: Post All-Star: 3-4, 67 IP 4.30 ERA, 1.507 WHIP, 53 K, 27 BB, 4 HR, .280 BAA.
After a miserable first half, Millwood's been better in the second half. The WHIP is discouraging enough that I wouldn't place more than an $8 investment here next year, and that might be generous. The HR allowed is the most encouraging number, though Millwood's home/road splits are actually pretty even. I know that Millwood's looked better, but it doesn't show up in the numbers. I'd pay him next year for a 4.50 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP. Looking at it again, $8 is probably a high ceiling for Millwood. You're paying for the wins, and who knows what the Rangers are going to look like next year.
James Shields: Post All-Star: 5-4, 77 1/3 IP 4.19 ERA, 1.280 WHIP, 63 K, 15 BB, 9 HR, .276 BAA.
If you're like me, and you think James Shields is a great pitcher in the making, talk up these Post All-Star numbers to his owner. The numbers you should be looking at are Shields's month-by-month ERAs: 3.75, 2.66, 5.57, 6.62, 2.79, 1.93. My biggest problem with Shields in the first half was his propensity for the long ball; I predicted that he'd have a rough month or two if he kept giving up HR at a 40 dinger pace. 9 HR in 77 1/3 IP isn't great, but for a pitcher with Shields's control and stuff, it's acceptable. I think Shields is a guy you could get for $15 in a start over league and possibly get a $25-30 ace. This is a case where the Post All-Star numbers are useless in a vacuum.
Jake Westbrook: Post All-Star: 4-4, 80 1/3 IP 3.14 ERA, 1.320 WHIP, 40 K, 31 BB, 4 HR, .257 BAA.
Like McGowan, Westbrook's another pitcher you might look at and think "he'll be great next year" based on his 2nd half stats. All I can say is: don't get fooled by that ERA. Westbrook has a low K/IP rate, which is fine for him, since he's a groundball machine. However, that BB/IP rate is alarming. The WHIP also tells me that he's been luckier than good. This isn't to say that Westbrook won't be solid again next year, like he's been for every year since 2005. Just don't expect him to match his 2004. That was the aberration.
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