Last week, in my A.L. FAAB discussion, I wrote about how Dioner Navarro seems to have quietly picked it up in the second half, hitting 6 HR with a .283 BA in 112 AB. While that's a very small sample size, the point was that it was worth looking at Navarro's second half before casting judgment on his awful overall numbers.
With that in mind, I thought I'd take a quick look at some second half splits and see if there is anything in the tea leaves that tells us whether or not to invest or not next year.
Bobby Abreu. Post All-Star: 210 AB, 11 HR, 53 RBI, 11 SB, .324 BA, .391 OBP, .581 SLG.
I'm sure Phillies fans were cavorting after Abreu's lukewarm start this year. However, Bobby finally picked it up in the second half and now has decent numbers overall, albeit disappointing ones for him. My biggest concern is his big drop-off in walks. He's only walked 68 times this year, which is low for a guy who has walked at least 100 times for the last eight years. Abreu isn't old so he should be OK, but you might not want to take these Post All-Star numbers to heart. Abreu has historically been a better hitter Pre All-Star; this year could very well just be one of those statistical blips. I'd still pay $30 for Abreu next year, but I wouldn't look at his Post-All Star numbers and pay $35-40.
Jason Bartlett. Post All-Star: 186 AB, 3 HR, 17 RBI, 4 SB, .301 BA, .358 OBP, .452 SLG.
Much of Barlett's value is tied into steals, and he stole 17 in the first half. The injury that caused him to run less Post All-Star has only been a factor recently, so it isn't all tied to that. I include OBP here to show how it is a superior number to look at. Bartlett's second-half OBP is much closer to his first half numbers than his second-half BA is to his first half. There's a good chance that Bartlett will hit .260-.270, and that the BA is a fluke.
Yuniesky Betancourt. Post All-Star: 195 AB, 5 HR, 28 RBI, 0 SB, .313 BA, .327 OBP, .508 SLG.
This is the kind of split where you really have to do a lot of digging; Betancourt's overall .288/9/58/4 line isn't too different from the Post All-Star split.
I know there are some who are already looking at the improved BA and the much improved slugging percentage and thinking Betancourt's going to break out in 2008. I'm cynical, mainly because of the 4 walks in 195 AB. Few players have found long-term success without walking, and I don't think Betancourt will be an exception. I also don't like the fact that Betancourt stopped running in the second half. While I don't think that means he'll never run again, it also means that a 15-20 SB season isn't likely in '08.
Jermaine Dye. Post All-Star: 186 AB, 14 HR, 28 RBI, 0 SB, .306 BA, .383 OBP, .618 SLG.
After Dye's incredible 2006, there were two schools of thought on Dye. The first school of thought was that Dye would revert back to his 2005 numbers - which were nothing to sneeze at, incidentally - and be a very good but not great hitter. The second, less kind, school of thought was that Dye would significantly collapse due to age and that anyone spending over $20 on him would be very, very sorry. His first half had the extremely negative nellies chuckling, as Dye put up an awful .214 BA in 266 AB. Granted, he did hit 12 HR and drive in 39 runs, but it looked like anyone who shelled out $30+ in their auctions was a fool. Dye's overall season still isn't going to make his owners happy, but he did turn it around to the point where he should still be worth $23-25 on Auction Day next year. The nice thing about Dye is that his overall numbers will probably make people shyer than they should be. You should buy. Dye will only be 34 next year, and should have another decent year in him. Keep in mind that the White Sox are weaker and will probably not have as many RBI opportunities and that Dye stopped running this year before you bid, though.
Alex Gordon. Post All-Star: 195 AB, 8 HR, 29 RBI, 5 SB, .282 BA, .314 OBP, .508 SLG.
A rookie like Gordon is a great guy to use second-half stats as a barometer, rather than his entire season. Over 550 AB, that line translates into 22/83/14/.282. That might actually be too conservative, but third base is deep enough in the American League that you don't want to overpay for the 30/100/15/.320 line Gordon might put up someday. Like Betancourt, Gordon's dwindling BB/AB ratio is a concern, though Gordon's younger than Betancourt, so I'm willing to cut him a little more slack.
Raul Ibanez. Post All-Star: 211 AB, 11 HR, 38 RBI, 0 SB, .294 BA, .364 OBP, .512 SLG.
Ibanez is a poor man's verison of Dye. He had a career year in 2006 and the touts all thought that Ibanez surely would fall off the cliff this year. Ibanez's second-half shows that he still has some life in his bat. Unlike Dye, I probably wouldn't take Ibanez's second-half numbers as a sign that he's going to go out and recreate 2006 in 2008. For one, Ibanez is two years older than Dye, but he also is in a poorer park and has a healthier history than Dye. In other words, 2006 looks much more like the anomaly with Ibanez. However, when you hear the guys at Baseball Prospectus start crowing this winter about how Ibanez is finished, don't buy it. He'll still be a productive buy at $15-17.
Delmon Young. Post All-Star: 226 AB, 3 HR, 33 RBI, 1 SB, .323 BA, .351 OBP, .429 SLG.
I thought I'd look at Young because there are some narrow corners of the Internet where some are touting Young for ROY honors. Well, first off, there is no way that Young deserves ROY consideration. His 744 OPS is pretty pedestrian, and I think his rooters are making the mistake of looking at the more standard statistical markers (RBI, BA) and saying that Young deserves it.
However, I do like his second-half numbers as a harbinger for future stardom. Yes, his power's down a little in the second half and, yes, a .429 SLG is nothing to write home about for a major league OF. Young is doing this as a 21-year old (he turns 22 on Friday). Making contact the way Young has is in and of itself a triumph. And he's making better contact Post All-Star. He does need to walk a little more, and Tampa Bay is the wrong organization to learn this skill, but Young is definitely on the right track in my mind.
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