A.L. FAAB Log: September 10, 2007

Aaron Laffey $16
At this point, for most owners, it's all about the wins play. This is my maneuver, to get Laffey in for a start against the Royals. No one in my league touched him in a two-start week against the Twins and Angels. Of course, Laffey was an exhibit for why playing match-ups doesn't always make sense, as Laffey got hit hard by the Twins and was OK (and picked up a win) against the Angels. It is Laffey's second time around against Kansas City, like it was against Minnesota, so this could end badly. Laffey is a soft-tosser who only hits 88 MPH on the gun on a good day. He's a severe G/F pitcher, but I don't think he can keep up his 5.0 G/F and, even with that superior ratio, he's still got a .306 BA against. If you do take the plunge on Laffey this week, you'll probably want to think about jettisoning him next week.

I should point out that the high bids (last week I bid $11 on Loe) are to block waiver claims of other contenders. Grabbing Laffey at $16 makes it hard to put a claim in on him for the last week of the year unless there is some significant roster shuffling.

Horacio Ramirez $5
Ho-Ram, as he's not-so-affectionately known at the great Seattle Mariners fan blog Lookout Landing, is an awful, awful play if you are searching for wins. Yes, he's somehow won a game eight times this year, but he's been a batting practice pitcher, with a .330 BA against and a 6.45 ERA. He's a two-start pitcher this week, with the A's today and the Devil Rays Saturday, but I wouldn't touch him with a ten foot pole while wearing a radiation suit. He's actually 6-1 with a 4.05 ERA at home, so two home starts aren't the worst thing in the world if you like the splits. But, again, I wouldn't go here. Or, as Jeff from Lookout Landing so aptly put it:

I feel like every recap of a Horacio Ramirez start should begin with "well it's not like we expected to win anyway." Because, really, why would we? Generally speaking, I find myself far less irritated after a loss in which he pitched than after a loss in which he didn't - not because the loss is any less meaningful, but because I've been preparing myself for it for so long that if and when it finally comes, it's practically old news. It's like getting a flu that's been developing for days versus waking up one morning with a gonorrhea outbreak. In the case of the former, you'll be annoyed but you'll deal with it, whereas in the case of the latter, you're way more likely to flip out and repeat "WHAT THE FUCK WHAT THE FLYING FUCK WHAT THE FUCK" a million times over before calming down and going to the clinic. Obviously, a competent front office doesn't still have Horacio in the rotation, but here we are, and as long as he's around there's really no sense in getting all worked up when he sucks.

Jason Hammel $3
Hammel pitches at Seattle this week. His last two starts, against the Yankees and Blue Jays, have been decent, but I wouldn't recommend Hammel right now. He's put up some decent minor league numbers throughout his career, but there a lot of guys in Triple-A who have decent minor league numbers. In general, Tampa has a tough schedule the rest of the way, so their back-end-of-the-rotation guys should be avoided down the stretch.

Wladimir Balentien $1. Other bid $1
Like a lot of statheads, I don't get too wrapped up in a player's strikeouts...unless it's an example as extreme as Balentien. In 1,897 AB, he's now whiffed 547 times. This hacking approach worked in A-ball back in 2005, where - despite a 33/160 BB/K ratio - Balentien hit .291 and slugged .891. It didn't work so well in 2006, when Balentien hit .230 and only slugged .435. Despite this less than inspiring season, the Mariners moved Balentien up to AAA this year. The results were solid but not spectacular. Balentien cut down on the Ks for the second year in a row, dropping down to 105, but he "only" hit .291. I saw "only" because the transition from Tacoma to Seattle, in terms of the park adjustment, is one of the more difficult moves to make in the majors. My own opinion is that Balentien should spend at least half a year in Triple-A, but the Mariners have always been high on him. If they don't sign Jose Guillen to an extension, Ballentin is a decent enough play for next year at $10. He might only hit .240, but he should hit for 15 HR power, and he's got a little speed (15/4 SB/CS) that might translate to 5-10 SB in the bigs. Long-term, I don't think Balentien's going to be a star, but I think he'll be a solid regular.

Rondell White $1
White has been terrible this year during those rare, precious moments when he's been healthy. He might be finished at 35, but he has a smidge of Roto value as the Twins have been playing him on occassion versus left-handers. He has 3 HR this year, so this is a desperation power gamble. The operative word here is desperate.

Chad Bradford $1
Bradford has been kind of hittable lately, as he's put up a terrible 7.15 ERA in August. However, Danys Baez has made Bradford look like Rollie Fingers, so there is a chance that Bradford picks up the odd save or two if Baez continues to throw BP. The problem here is that the Orioles have been up to their usual September swan dive, and saves have been just a wee bit hard to come by in Baltimore.

Jesse Litsch. Claimed by 11th, 2nd and 1st place teams.
As a rule, there's something I don't like about pitchers who put up a 4.11 K/BB ratio. But there is something I like about Litsch. Maybe it's that he's a throwback in that his slider is the pitch he throws when he needs a big out. Or maybe it's the fact that, for a 22-year old kid, he looks completely unfazed on the mound. Beyond all of that sentimental goop, I like Litsch because he's improved as the year has passed. Litsch had a 6.62 ERA in May and a 3/7 K/BB ratio in 17 1/2 IP. Since then, he has a 3.47 ERA with a 37/20 K/BB ratio in 70 IP. Yes, the strikeouts are still too low, so Litsch's ERA is due to spike a little. And you're probably better off sitting on the sidelines in 2008, because he's due for a consolidation season. But, long-term, I like this guy, despite my prejudices.

Mike Mussina. Claimed by 10th place team.
You know you've sunk to the bottom of the heap when Aaron Laffey, Horacio Ramirez and Jason Hammel are given higher priority than you are. Then again, no contender could touch Moose...he clearly looked like meat in his last start against Detroit, throwing up 85-86 MPH meatballs with not enough movement and location to get past major league hitters. Forget match-ups here, forget the fact that the Yankees will provide run support; this is simply asking for trouble. Now, if Moose is available in your league and you're out of it, you have nothing to lose by making a next-year play. At $10 or his waiver salary, Moose could very well bounce back in the Spring with a little R&R. And if he doesn't? Well, then you've lost nothing. My opinion is that this Moose might be cooked, but Mussina's a gamer who will probably prove me wrong.