Monday, September 10, 2007

N.L. FAAB Log: September 9, 2007

Brian Fuentes $13. Other bid $4.
By the end of the year, bidding on guys like this is always tepid; teams that are out of it aren't paying as much attention as they should be, and contenders often don't have the space to roll the dice on the possibility of the odd win or save here and there. With the exception of a terrible run in late June/early July, Fuentes has been his usual, reliable self all season long. He's a free agent after next season, so the Rockies will probably either move Fuentes this off-season or move him back into the closer's role in 2008 to up his value. Either way, this is a nice gamble by the winning bidder.

Miguel Olivo $8. Other bids: $2, $1.
Olivo is a decent power option behind the plate, but his batting average is a killer, and he's tailed off badly in that department Post All-Star (.218) in the second half. His .259 OBP is unacceptable for a major leaguer, so there's always the concern, if you're looking at 2008, that Olivo won't have a full-time job next year. He'd be best used on the wrong side of a platoon (851 OPS against versus lefties from 2004-2006, as opposed to 633 versus righties), but my guess is that he'll have a starting gig somewhere next year, be it with Florida or elsewhere.

Adam Wainwright $6. Other bids: $6, $5, $4, $3, $1, $1, $1.
The owner who dropped Wainwright wanted to make room for Pedro Martinez, and sometimes moves like this have to be made post trade deadline. However, this guy had better choices, most notably Matt Morris. This is really an example of why you have to be paying attention late, even if you're out of it. Four owners with $60 or more FAAB left over all passed here, and that just is inexcusable. Wainright's ERA has dropped from 4.38 in July to 3.75 and, although his WHIP is high, he still would be a freeze next year at $10. These are the kind of moves you can't let your opponents make in September and expect to win the following year.

Chad Qualls $2
Qualls continues to do what he's done since his arrival in the majors in 2004: provide solid middle relief innings with a goodly amount of wins and a smattering of saves thrown in for good measure. Guys like this are always floating around the free agent pool, and in 4x4 you're usually better off with a Qualls type than you are with a crummy 5th starter who might send your ERA and WHIP into the toilet. He won't ever close in Houston, but that doesn't mean Chad Qualls isn't an asset.

Sean Marshall $2
Marshall's ERA and WHIP are probably a little prettier than they should be given some of his peripheral stats. He doesn't generate a lot of whiffs, and his sinking fastball isn't inducing as much grounders (G/F 1.54) as you'd expect. Marshall is still young, and could still take a step forward, but right now looks more like a 4th or 5th starter. His next start isn't until Saturday, so Marshall's looking at a 16 day lay-off if Lou Pinella doesn't use him in relief early this week. I'd avoid Marshall right now.

David Eckstein $2. Other bid $1
Eckstein is what he is: a decent Roto option at middle infield because of his steals who will help a little bit in batting average. You could keep him next year at $10, but you always want to try and get guys like this for a little less if possible. As I always say, these are the kind of guys from whom you must demand profit.

Morgan Ensberg $1
After a quick start for San Diego, Ensberg's been buried on the bench, starting twice in the last three weeks. He's probably got one more chance, whether it's in San Diego or somewhere else, to prove he's an option as a major league first baseman. I've always noticed that guys like Ensberg who emerge late often bow out early. This is partially because the pressure of working against the assumption that you can't play, but also because sometimes these guys are less able to make the adjustments after they lose part of their game. Ensberg will be 32 on Opening Day next year; he'd better hope some team brings him in to caddy a young guy who turns out isn't quite yet ready. Tampa Bay is a likely destination if the Rays believe that Evan Longoria will need a smidge more seasoning.

Shawn Green $1
It's hard to believe that this guy might be wiped up at the age of 34, but his numbers are terrible for a major league corner outfielder. He's not a serious option against lefties anymore, and he doesn't have enough power to justify using him in a platoon. He has one lousy HR in 137 AB Post All-Star. I can still remember when Green looked like a superstar from 1999-2002, bashing 40+ HR in three of those four years and putting up OPSs near 1000. The Mets will surely buy out Green's option, and I think he'll have a hard time getting more than $3-4 million on the open market.

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