Micah Bowie: Journeyman reliever who has managed to stick this year with the Nationals. No Roto value.
Matt Chico: He had a nice outing against the Giants in his return from the minors, but Chico is a dangerous risk, even in RFK. 14 of his 24 HR allowed have been at home, so the favorable venue doesn't protect him, or you. His next start is against the Braves, so keep him on reserve or in the free agent pool.
Clay Hensley: He can't be owned this year. If you must start him, do it at home. He has an 8.39 ERA and .372 BAA on the road.
Philip Humber: Humber's stock definitely took a big leap backwards this year with his so-so showing at New Orleans. He sported a .244 BAA, which is OK, but allowed a crazy 21 HR in 139 IP. He recovered quickly from TJ surgery in 2005, but I wonder if he wasn't rushed back too quickly. His lone relief outing for the Mets this year was fine, but Humber's going to need to take a step forward if he's going to contribute to the Mets.
Pedro Martinez: Pedro gets the Astros on Sunday and then the Phillies next Saturday. I'm merely repeating the scouting reports here. He's working at very limited velocity, so has zero room for error. Having the Mets line-up behind him helps, but the play on Pedro is for a healthy 2008.
Jonathan Meloan: He utterly dominated in the minors this year, with a paltry .156 BA against and over 12 Ks per nine IP between Double-A and Triple-A. Unfortunately, he's walking the park so far in his very limited major league exposure. Meloan very well could be a closer-of-the-future, but that future might not be until 2010.
Franklin Morales: Morales is a hot shot arm who dominated in the low minors and the did OK in Double-A and Triple-A this year, leading to a late promotion. Morales' problem is that he walks way too many guys, something you don't want to do in Coors. He's only 21 years old, so the Rockies can be patient with him. Morales needs lots more seasoning, and I predict he'll struggle if he breaks camp with the team in 2008.
Mark Mulder: He was absolutely belted by the Pirates in his first start this season. He's possibly a two-start starter this week, but he's at Cincinnati and then home against the Cubbies. Right now, Mulder is a desperation wins play only.
Troy Patton: Patton's done well so far in two major league starts, but the drop in K/IP concerns me quite a bit. Even in Double-A, where he sported a 2.99 ERA in 102 1/3 IP, his 5.98 K/IP ratio was poor, and his 10 HR allowed doesn't speak to a dominant prospect. Patton still needs some refinement, so he's a risk despite his good ERA/WHIP so far.
Mike Pelfrey: So far, not so good for Mike Pelfrey in the major leagues. Given all the hype surrounding his stuff, you would think that Pelfrey would be doing better than he has thus far. The scouting report says that Pelfrey's secondary pitches need refinement and he doesn't have command of them. As a result, hitters wait for the heater. He's only 23 years old, so he has plenty of time to turn it around. But he's definitely hit the wall this year. He needs to show more before he's a good investment.
Chris Sampson: Sampson is a control artist who put up sick numbers in 34 major league innings last year despite extremely underwhelming K/IP. This year he's regressed to the mean, putting up a more expected 4.62 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP. He hardly walks anybody, but a lot of balls are put in play, leaving him at the mercy of his defense. He could put together a few years as bottom of the staff filler, but he could also wind up out of baseball in a couple of years.
Ryan Speier: Speier missed all of 2006 after having surgery to repair a torn labrum. He hasn't had a lot of impact yet this year, and he won't be in line for saves in 2008.
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