Friday, September 07, 2007

September Call-Ups: N.L. Hitters

Tony Abreu: He has limited to no value for this year, unless someone gets hurt. He might play more down the stretch if the Dodgers fall out of it. Long-term I like him, but he's not going to do much in terms of power right away.

Eliezier Alfonzo: His power numbers make him look like a decent long-term play, but at 29 Alfonzo is no spring chicken. Then again, 29 years old on the Giants is like 23 years old on a lot of other teams. Still, limited to no Roto value.

Jeff Baker: His numbers stink this year, but he's also been battling injuries most of the year. If the Rockies gave him a shot, I could see Baker providing good power in Coors. The downside is that Matt Holliday and Brad Hawpe are better, and Baker isn't young at 26. He needs a trade, but a trade will hamper his value. It's the Rockies Catch-22.

Alberto Callaspo: He has nothing left to prove in Triple-A. Unfortunately, he has plenty to prove in the majors, and his numbers make him look like a utility guy in the long-term. He makes great contact and can work out a walk, but these are skills that make him far more valuable to a major league team than a Roto team.

Joe Koshansky: The Rockies love to accumulate power hitting first basemen, hold on to them for way too long, and then trade them to other teams after their window has nearly closed. Koshansky excites Roto players because he's a guy who could hit 40 HR in Colorado in his prime, and probably could sock 30-35 anywhere else. However, he strikes out a lot, and hitting below .300 in Colorado Springs isn't a good way to get promoted. Those in keeper leagues should definitely FAAB Koshansky now, though. I still don't see Todd Helton moving but, if he does, Koshansky's probably got a pretty clear shot at the job. He'll be 26 next year so, like Ryan Shealy before him, the window is closing quickly.

Jason Lane: Lane could probably be a capable major league outfielder, but he'll be 31 years old next him, so time and perception are against him. Luke Scott is also an old-ish OF, but he's two years younger than Lane and has put up better numbers than Lane this year. Lane is going to be stuck on the Round Rock/Houston shuttle unless he's traded. Phil Garner didn't like Lane, but I don't even think a managerial change will help here.

Ryan Langerhans: With Wily Mo Pena on board, Langerhans is just insurance this month. I think he's finished. If you're going to be an adherent of the Three True Outcomes, you'd better hit a lot of home runs.

Andy LaRoche: I know Las Vegas is an incredibly extreme hitters' venue, but a .589 SLG and 18 HR in 265 AB will get your attention. LaRoche and James Loney allow the Dodgers to let Nomar Garciaparra pinch-hit for a while. Nomar's signed through next year, so the Dodgers have to either ship Nomar out or send Loney or LaRoche down next year. I think they should move Nomar, but they're going to get pennies on the dollar for him and have to eat some salary. They'll have to do something; Nomar on the bench is not going to be a fun situation if he's still on the team.

Carlos Quentin: I'm willing to write his year off to injuries and bad luck, but he's 25 years old, has Justin Upton to contend with, and probably won't just be handed a job next spring. He's going to need a trade or an injury to avoid getting tagged with the 4th OF label.

Geovanny Soto: I saw him on ESPN/WGN Wednesday night, like a lot of you probably did, and I came away with the impression that Soto looks like a hitter. Soto might see a little action down the stretch. His power outburst at AAA Iowa this year (26/109/.353 AVG/.652 SLG) put him on our radar as a potentially dangerous hitter if the Cubs give him a shot at the starting job. It wouldn't surprise me to see Chicago bring in a grizzled vet and easy Soto in with 350-400 AB in his first full season. I'm not sure if the power will translate to the majors right away, but I could see Soto hitting .280/.290 with 10-15 HR and a good deal of RBI.

Wilson Valdez: The Dodgers are using Valdez as a pinch runner/defensive replacement, but Valdez doesn't steal bases. No Roto value.

Joey Votto: There was a lot of clamoring in Fantasy Baseball circles that the Reds should have brought Votto up in June because a) he was ready and b) Scott Hatteburg and Jeff Conine weren't exactly Lou Gehrig and Willie McCovey, or even George Scott and Cecil Cooper. However, looking at Votto's minor league numbers, I could see why the Reds didn't feel the need to rush him to The Show. His 2007 at Triple-A was somewhere between his disappointing 2005 (17/83/.256) and his super 2006 (22/77/.319). What's deceiving about Votto's 2007 is that he hit 22 HR again, but he lost 25 doubles from his amazing 46 in 2006. It's possible that Votto wasn't driving the ball as well, or it's possible that Votto was swinging for the fences in an effort to get the call. My take on Votto next year is that he'll hit .270 with about 15-20 HR and will eventually be a 30-35 HR hitter in his best years. That's obviously very good, but whether he'll hit those HR as a .300 hitter or a .250 hitter will tell us how valuable he is. Roto geeks are particularly excited that Votto started running in 2006, and has stolen 40 bases in the last two seasons, but we'll see whether or not that holds up. Will he play this year? I hope so, but Scott Hatteburg still could steal a good deal of AB.

Delwyn Young: He had a lights out year in AAA this year. But he was 25 years old, repeating the league, and his 37/105 BB/K ratio raises a huge red flag. Those 52 doubles also tell me that he could turn his 17 HR power into 30 HR power long-term. Again, though, 25 isn't 23, and Las Vegas isn't Chavez Ravine. I've been burned so many times by guys who hit for the Dodgers in Triple-A (Billy Ashley, Chin-Feng Chen, Sloppy Joe Thurston, Adam Riggs) that I have the same wariness toward Young. I'm not 100% sure he'll flop, but I don't feel confident.

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