This is my final look at Post All-Star numbers this week. I might revisit this series over the course of the winter, though that seems like it's a million years away. Tomorrow, time permitting, I'm going to take a look at Major League schedules down the stretch and how it will impact your pitchers.
Again, all stats do not include games played this evening.
Bronson Arroyo. Post All-Star: 6-5, 80 2/3 IP 3.57 ERA, 1.264 WHIP, 72 K, 17 BB, 15 HR, .269 BAA.
Throughout this series, I've been trying for the most part to focus on some of the less obvious first half/second half differences. Arroyo is a poster boy for this type of analysis. Overall, his numbers look pretty pedestrian, but Arroyo's second half puts him back on the map as a productive pitcher to consider in 2008. The HR are a big problem and are not just confined to Great American, but Arroyo keeps himself out of trouble by avoiding the walks and thus can be a solid $15 pitcher in N.L. only formats. The key is to try to grab him around $10 and hope for the moderate profit.
Doug Davis. Post All-Star: 8-1, 72 2/3 IP 3.84 ERA, 1.294 WHIP, 53 K, 32 BB, 8 HR, .231 BAA.
It's extremely difficult to recommend a pitcher who walks 100 or close to that amount every year but, as we all know all too well, you often need someone to fill out your staff in deep, N.L. only leagues. Davis was particularly tattooed in four interleague starts (19 1/3 IP, 31 H 1 W, 2 L, 13 K, 13 BB, 8.38 ERA, 2.276 WHIP), and he won't be facing Boston and the Yankees again in 2008. That being said, I wouldn't get too worked up about Davis's second half turnaround. He's going to walk a ton of guys, and he isn't going to strike out enough guys to make it worth your while. I'd look for a 4.25 ERA and a 1.4 WHIP from Davis next year: acceptable, but only if you have a strong WHIP guy to cancel him out.
Jeff Francis. Post All-Star: 7-3, 78 1/3 IP 5.06 ERA, 1.417 WHIP, 62 K, 23 BB, 12 HR, .288 BAA.
The second half numbers look brutal compared to the first half splits, but Francis's component numbers are actually pretty similar on the whole. For all of the talk about how Coors is no longer the hitters paradise it once was because of the humidor, the fact is that fewer home runs don't change the fact that the place is cavernous and balls in play are simply more likely to become hits. Francis has a .294 BAA at home compared to a .266 on the road. He's the same pitcher in both venues, it's just that more balls in play are going to become hits in Colorado. The bottom line is that Francis does have a place on your Roto squad, but don't pretend that Coors still isn't a hitters park, home runs notwithstanding.
Oliver Perez. Post All-Star: 7-3, 66 IP 3.82 ERA, 1.455 WHIP, 71 K, 34 BB, 10 HR, .250 BAA.
Perez's numbers this year seem to show some progress toward finally harnessing the potential he's flashed throughout his career and that he seemed to harness in 2004, but his second half numbers show some of the same, familiar cracks. For someone who walks so many guys, he can't give up so many home runs no matter how many guys he strikes out. This is an old, boring mantra for power pitchers, but you can throw a fastball 100 MPH and if it's straight, major league hitters will give it a ride. I don't think Perez is going to go back to posting 6+ ERAs any time soon, but he might wind up having one of those long careers that isn't as spectacular as you would have hoped based on the raw talent.
Ian Snell. Post All-Star: 2-7, 72 1/3 IP 5.72 ERA, 1.562 WHIP, 65 K, 24 BB, 13 HR, .309 BAA.
The K/IP and BB/IP ratios are still on track, so you have to wonder if this is just a case of poor pitch selection or just a case of succumbing to the pressure of a poor first half. The Pittsburgh media seems to think that both Snell and Gorzo have been overworked, though that doesn't completely explain it. This is a baffling slump that is going to definitely lower Snell's expectations next year, even though he's probably still the same pitcher.
Adam Wainwright. Post All-Star: 6-3, 72 2/3 IP 2.48 ERA, 1.280 WHIP, 58 K, 21 BB, 2 HR, .252 BAA.
The WHIP doesn't match the ERA, indicating that a correction is in order next year, but Wainwright's shaky second half and overall 1.43 WHIP masks a great pitcher in the making. His 7.18 K/IP is much closer to his strikeout rate last year as a reliever. While I don't expect him to be that dominant as a starter next year, he should be a solid #2 Roto option in N.L. only leagues.
Barry Zito. Post All-Star: 3-3, 69 IP 3.78 ERA, 1.116 WHIP, 55 K, 21 BB, 10 HR, .218 BAA.
The two sets of numbers that obviously jump out in this profile are the batting average against and the home runs allowed. The BAA tells me that Zito's back on his game, while the HR allowed, though alarming, are right in line with his typical 25-30 HR allowed per season. Zito is probably going to be a good post-hype buy next year. He won't be a Top 10 pitcher, but he should put up a respectable ERA between 3.75 - 4.00 with a WHIP of about 1.3. That's certainly not what the Giants are paying him 126 million smackeroos for, but you can get away with paying him $15 and not feel bad about it.
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