With two weeks left in the season, a number of teams are stuck in tight races in Wins, ERA, and WHIP. If you're only fighting for wins points, then your course of action is typically clear. Pick up as many starters as you possibly can and just try to grab wins. Even if one of the crummy starters you pick up gets ripped, it won't matter. If ERA/WHIP suddenly starts getting you nervous, you can always reverse course - provided that you haven't already used up all of your FAAB, that is.
Most Rotisserie experts always talk about how you should spend your FAAB early so that you're not sitting on a pile of it at the end. I would agree that this almost always makes sense, but I must say that I'm glad that I have a good amount of FAAB left this year so I can pretty much pick and choose the pitchers I want for the match ups I want.
Anyway, I thought I'd take a look at A.L. schedules for the last two weeks of the season and see if there are any match-ups worth playing, both in terms of wins and in terms of ERA/WHIP. I don't plan to include every team. In most deep A.L. or N.L. only leagues, you're not going to be able to pluck a Red Sox or Yankees starter off of the free agent wire in mid-September.
Baltimore Orioles: It's entirely possible that every healthy Orioles starter is in your free agent pool this week. Jon Leicester has had two solid outings in a row and Brian Burres had a nice outing against the Blue Jays, but I'd pass on these pitchers and this schedule. The Orioles have three at New York and four at Texas before closing out at home with three versus Toronto and three versus New York. If you are going to take a chance, the three games versus Toronto are where you'd probably want to make your (poor) play, as the Jays seem to be putting in a lot of B line-ups lately.
Boston Red Sox: All of the Red Sox starters are most likely taken in A.L. only leagues. Clay Buchholz might get one more start after the Sox clinch, but he's also probably owned. The Sox might shuffle their rotation to get ready for the play-offs. They have two off days left, on Thursday the 20th and Monday the 24th, so it's possible that they'll set up their rotation the way they like it the last week of the season.
New York Yankees: Mike Mussina might be available in your league's free agent pool; the rest of the starters are likely owned. It's still unclear whether or not Mussina will get more starts if the Yankees go to a six-man rotation down the stretch, or after they clinch a play-off berth. Mussina pitched well his last time out but is still a poor risk; his velocity is way down and he is getting almost no swinging strikes.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays: Jason Hammel, Andy Sonnanstine and Edwin Jackson are all possible free agents. Their schedule this week is brutal, with three at Los Angeles and three versus Boston. The final week the fun continues with three versus the Yankees. The only match-ups worth considering are in the season's final weekend at Toronto. Jackson is currently due to pitch 9/28 versus the Jays, while Hammel would go 9/29. I'd avoid Jackson entirely, but Hammel could be a useful desperation play in that last game. In his last four starts, Hammel has a 3.52 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP. The rub is that he's got only one win to show for his efforts. Unlike a James Shields, Hammel won't go more than six or seven, and that Devil Rays bullpen makes leads evaporate nightly.
Toronto Blue Jays: If any Jays starter is available for the pennant push, it's likely Jesse Litsch. He's slated to pitch vs. Boston this coming week, and then is a two start pitcher the final week of the season at Baltimore and then vs. Tampa Bay. Long term, I think Litsch is an OK play next year, but he's in a terrible slump right now, with an 8.31 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in his last four starts. Given his age and the number of innings he's pitched this year, it's possible the Jays might shut him down for the season. Then again, these are the Jays we're talking about here, so more likely than not they won't.
Chicago White Sox: Jose Contreras, Jon Garland and Gavin Floyd are possibly free agents in some leagues. Garland's been strong in his last two starts (tonight's start is pending as I write this), and finishes with the Royals home and away. Amazingly, despite his struggles, Garland's year-to-date numbers mirror his numbers from 2002-2006, with the exception of his off-the-charts 2004. You can probably claim Garland for his match-ups with KC. Floyd gets two starts this week at Kansas City and at Minnesota, and finishes up in the last week against Detroit. Like Garland, he's pitched pretty well as of late, but is a little harder to recommend. If you do pick him up, this coming week's match-ups are the ones to play. Contreras gets the Royals this week, and closes in the final week with the Royals and the Tigers. Improbably, he's getting wins, but his WHIP has been over 1.8 in his last four starts. Even with the Royals on the docket, he's not recommended.
Cleveland Indians: Aaron Laffey's the guy who might be available from the Indians. I wrote about him last week in my A.L. FAAB log, so I won't repeat the scouting report here. The Indians wisely bumped Laffey from his start last night so they could set up their play-off rotation, so Laffey got hosed out of his start against the Royals this week. Now, he gets the Tigers on Tuesday next week, and gets Seattle and KC on the road to close out the year. He's a good wins play that last week, but keep in mind that he could be shut down that week, as he's at 163 2/3 IP now, and the Indians might not want to stretch him too far.
The Indians also have a doubleheader against the Mariners in the final week. Cliff Lee will probably get that start, though the Tribe could also turn to Jeremy Sowers. Neither is a good risk while trying to shake off the rust against a solid Seattle line-up.
Detroit Tigers: Jeremy Bonderman is probably done for the year, so the Tigers are currently turning to Yorman Bazardo and Jair Jurrjens in the rotation. I suspect that Bazardo's assignment tonight was a one-time deal; the Tigers are skipping him in the rotation next week, and they could turn to Virgil Vazquez or Jordan Tata in the final week of the season if they need a 5th starter. Jurrjens is an interesting play if he does manage to stay in the rotation the rest of the way. He gets Kansas City at home next week, and then would close out in the final week against the Twins. Two games against weaker offenses at home is tempting, though Jurrjens' low strikeout rate thus far makes me wonder whether or not the law of averages is due to catch up with him.
Kansas City Royals: Billy Buckner and Kyle Davies are the probable free agents here. Buckner's due to get Detroit next week and the White Sox in the final week. Davies gets two starts next week, versus Chicago and at Detroit, then versus Cleveland in the last week. Both have some long-term potential, but both are pitching poorly enough at the moment that I can't recommend either.
Minnesota Twins: The Twins have pulled Boof Bonser out of the rotation for the rest of the season and have replaced him with Kevin Slowey. He'll get two starts at home versus the Rangers and Royals this coming week, and then closes out his season at Fenway Park. Due to the rust he's a risky play this coming week, but is a stab at wins due to the two starts. Waive or reserve him before he goes to Boston, even if Boston has clinched and has their B line-up out there.
Los Angeles Angels: Bartolo Colon resumed doing what he was doing prior to hitting the DL for the second time this season. He threw up a couple of good innings and then got tagged. He's got Tampa at home next week and then is at Oakland and Texas in the final week. I'm not convinced Colon is healthy and would stay away.
Oakland A's: Lenny DiNardo and Dan Meyer are the possibilities here. Meyer gets Seattle this week and is at Fenway the final week of the season. DiNardo is at Cleveland this coming week and home against L.A. the final week. Both are poor plays simply based on performance. Rich Harden is due to return to the rotation on Sunday the 23rd, and will probably bump Meyer from the rotation.
Seattle Mariners: Depending on your league, Miguel Batista, Horacio Ramirez and Jeff Weaver could all be available. Horacio Ramirez was pulled after four batters tonight, and I suspect that he won't be returning to the rotation. If he does, though, he'd get the Angels next week and Cleveland the final week. He is the worst starting pitcher in the American League and should not be used against a Little League team right now. Weaver and Batista are on a parallel track to close out the year, with two starts versus Oakland and at L.A. next week, followed by the Rangers in the final week. Weaver's gone back to being horrible and shouldn't be used. Batista is OK in the last week against the Rangers, though he's a WHIP risk.
Seattle has a doubleheader on tap the last week of the season, so someone like Jake Woods could be called upon to start the second game.
Texas Rangers: Brandon McCarthy is probably the only Rangers starter who is a free agent; I'm guessing teams out of the running this year snagged Edinson Volquez just in case. He's home against Baltimore this week and home against L.A. in the last week. He's on a strict pitch count and is a tough play based on the fact that he's struggled to date.
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