Yesterday, I looked at the 10 biggest spikes and the 10 biggest drops from Pre All-Star to Post All-Star statistics for American League Hitters. Today, I'll look at the same for American League starting pitchers, using OPS against: an even more imperfect stat for pitchers than for hitters, but unlike ERA not reliant on what a reliever might do after you leave the game.
The minimum number of IP in each half for this exercise is 80.
(I neglected to point out in yesterday's post that the minimum number of plate appearances was 250 in each half).
Top 5 Post All-Star Jumps
1) Scott Kazmir
Pre All-Star: 5-6, 112 1/3 IP, 4.41 ERA, 1.576 WHIP, 115 K, 58 BB, 12 HR, .274 BAA.
Post All-Star: 8-3, 94 1/3 IP, 2.39 ERA, 1.145 WHIP, 124 K, 31 BB, 6 HR, .222 BAA.
The Post All-Star numbers do scream breakout, but Kazmir's stuff does that just as nicely. The number that should jump out at you is the walks. Kazmir's 2.96 BB/9 is vastly superior to anything he's ever done before and, if he can keep it up or even stay under 4 BB/9, he'll probably step forward into the elite Top 5-10 pitchers in the American League. If you want him, keep talking up the fact he'll face the Red Sox and Yankees 10 times next year. Don't point out that, in 59 1/3 IP against those teams last year, Kazmir put up a 2.73 ERA with a .228 BAA.
One problem predicting what guys like Kazmir will do stems from the fact that his PERA is always higher than his actual ERA. Even with a 1.145 WHIP, Kazmir should put up a 3.40 ERA...or only .008 lower than what he actually did last year. Typically, the law of averages catches up with weak ratio pitchers, even if they do strike out a lot of guys and look good doing it.
2) Fausto Carmona
Pre All-Star: 10-4, 107 2/3 IP, 3.85 ERA, 1.347 WHIP, 61 K, 29 BB, 10 HR, .277 BAA.
Post All-Star: 9-4, 107 1/3 IP, 2.26 ERA, 1.071 WHIP, 76 K, 32 BB, 6 HR, .217 BAA.
Carmona's BABIP isn't as radical as Brian Bannister's was last year, but it was above league average. For a guy who didn't strike out more than six batters per nine, I tend to believe that the lights out second half numbers were more fluke than reality. His BABIP in the second half was .252, which is well below his .308 BABIP Pre All Star. This isn't a knock on Carmona. He's a good pitcher, and he keeps the ball on the ground, which will minimize the damage. But I'd expect something along the lines of a 3.5 to a 3.7 ERA next year, not the 3.06 he put up in 2007.
3) Kevin Millwood
Pre All-Star: 6-7, 80 1/3 IP, 6.16 ERA, 1.680 WHIP, 60 K, 32 BB, 13 HR, .306 BAA.
Post All-Star: 4-7, 92 1/3 IP, 4.29 ERA, 1.570 WHIP, 63 K, 35 BB, 6 HR, .296 BAA.
Millwood's improvement was more a product of the fact that he didn't blow up in Post All-Star the way he did before the break. Even using OPS against, he still ranked 28th of 39 pitchers with 80 IP or more Post All-Star. He allowed just as many extra-base hits in the second half (31) as he did in the first half of the year. The K/IP rate was actually lower in the second half, and the WHIP was almost as bad. All of this tells me that Millwood was more lucky than good in July and August before reverting back to (bad) form in September. The bid limit on Millwood in 2008 can't be anything higher than $4, and even that seems risky.
4) C.C. Sabathia
Pre All-Star 12-3, 133 1/3 IP, 3.58 ERA, 1.178 WHIP, 119 K, 18 BB, 15 HR, .270 BAA
Post All-Star 7-4, 107 2/3 IP, 2.76 ERA, 1.105 WHIP, 90 K, 19 BB, 5 HR, .246 BAA
The main thing Sabathia did better in the second half was keep the ball in the park. In a 12 start stretch between July 24 and September 19, Sabathia only surrendered a dinger or more in one game, versus Tampa Bay on August 19 (allowing two). The key for Sabathia in 2006 was lowering the walk rate. He pushed this forward into 2007, so I see no reason why he can't post ERAs between 3 and 3.4 for years to come.
5) Roy Halladay
Pre All-Star 10-3, 109 IP, 4.46 ERA, 1.266 WHIP, 68 K, 19 BB, 9 HR, .281 BAA
Post All-Star 6-4, 116 1/3 IP, 3.02 ERA, 1.221 WHIP, 71 K, 29 BB, 6 HR, .255 BAA
Halladay's another hard pitcher to measure because his success comes from the ground ball, not the strikeout, and most analysis tends to focus on the power of the whiff. Halladay missed three weeks due to an emergency appendicitis last year and wasn't the same at first when he rushed back. His Post All-Star numbers are more in line with what to expect, though with a pitcher like Halladay, who allows so much contact, the ERAs are bound to fluctuate.
Top 5 Post All-Star Slumps
1) Chad Gaudin
Pre All-Star 8-3, 109 1/3 IP, 2.88 ERA, 1.372 WHIP, 68 K, 48 BB, 5 HR, .246 BAA
Post All-Star 3-10, 90 IP, 6.30 ERA, 1.722 WHIP, 86 K, 52 BB, 16 HR, .290 BAA
You could kind of see this coming based on the WHIP, the high workload for a 24-year old pitcher, and the fact that Gaudin, despite his youth, had all the markings of a journeyman, but his Post All-Star numbers were ridiculous. The K/IP tell me that Gaudin certainly could put it all together and has the stuff to succeed, but he looks like he simply was overmatched as the year went on. He needs an out pitch to compliment his fastball, and right now he just doesn't have one that works consistently for him. Gaudin's the kind of guy I'd rather spend $2-3 on this year than Millwood. Billy Beane told Athletics Nation that Gaudin has the best raw stuff of anyone on that staff outside of Rich Harden.
2) Dan Haren
Pre All-Star 10-3, 129 1/3 IP, 2.30 ERA, 0.997 WHIP, 101 K, 32 BB, 11 HR, .205 BA
Post All-Star 5-6, 93 1/3 IP, 4.15 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 91 K, 31 BB, 13 HR, .298 BA
I'm pretty sure Dan Haren isn't a guy who is going to throw up a 1.5 WHIP. But I definitely know he isn't going to put up a 2.3 ERA. He certainly isn't going to put up a 1.6 ERA like he did in April or a 1.67 ERA like he did in May. Haren still looks to me like a #2 guy, not an ace, and his peripherals at the beginning of the year didn't support the idea of Haren as an ace. I'm worried a little bit that he's going to come closer to a 3.80 ERA in Arizona than the 3.07 he posted last year. Haren's probably going to be a Top 15 N.L. pitcher in 2008, but I suspect some owners are going to chase him close to Jake Peavy/Brandon Webb territory
3) Jose Contreras
Pre All-Star 5-10, 100 2/3 IP, 5.19 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 60 K, 37 BB, 7 HR, .281 BA
Post All-Star 5-7, 88 1/3 IP, 6.01 ERA, 1.619 WHIP, 53 K, 25 BB, 14 HR, .331 BA
Most of this damage came in July, when Contreras posted a brutal 12.97 ERA in 25 2/3 IP. He put up a 4.00 ERA in August and a 3.54 in September. He was still luckier than good in those months, as his BAA was .291 and .300, respectively.
Will he be better next year? Who knows? In July, Contreras had lost significant velocity on his fastball but seemed to regain it after a quick trip to the bullpen. His mechanics, though, remained out of whack. Hitters were having an easier time picking up the ball out of the stretch, and Contreras started dropping into a three-quarters arm slot, losing velocity in the process. All of these things certainly can be fixed, though with pitchers it's impossible to predict if they will.
4) Jarrod Washburn
Pre All-Star 8-6, 106 1/3 IP, 3.72 ERA, 1.335 WHIP, 54 K, 33 BB, 7 HR, .267 BAA
Post All-Star 2-9 87 1/3 IP, 5.05 ERA, 1.443 WHIP, 60 K, 34 BB, 16 HR, .271 BA
If you look at only BAA and OPS against, Washburn has been a model of consistency the last five years, even in 2005 when his ERA dropped to 3.20. He's a pitcher for whom you can throw first half/second half splits out the window. Washburn is an innings eater who will get hit sometimes but usually keep you above $0 in earnings.
5) Joe Blanton
Pre All-Star 8-5, 134 1/3 IP, 3.28 ERA, 1.087 WHIP, 85 K, 24 BB, 11 HR, .239 BAA
Post All-Star 6-5 , 95 2/3 IP, 4.89 ERA, 1.401 WHIP, 55 K, 16 BB, 5 HR, .309 BAA
Like many of the pitchers on this list, Blanton pitched well over his head in the first half but somewhat beneath his skill level in the second half. Blanton was lucky to get out of the season in one piece, as he's a flyball pitcher with a penchant for giving up HR. He could still be OK, but last season's overall numbers look like the best you're going to see from Blanton, not something he'll build upon.
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