Pre All-Star Versus Post All-Star

Late last year, I examined the Post All-Star stats of a handful of players who were performing well (as of September 11, 2007) after the All-Star break. Tonight, I thought I'd examine the value of Pre All-Star versus Post All-Star statistics further.

During the early days of analysis, touts like John Benson pointed out the value of examining first half versus second half statistics. Although never a certain predictor, Post All-Star stats can occasionally tell you if a player is a candidate to improve or a candidate to slump the following year.

This post will focus on American League hitters.

Top 5 A.L. Post All-Star jumps (based on OPS differential).

1) Jermaine Dye.
Pre All-Star 266 AB, 12 HR, 39 RBI, 2 SB, .214 BA, .271 OBP, .402 SLG.
Post All-Star 242 AB, 16 HR, 39 RBI, 0 SB, .298 BA, .368 OBP, .579 SLG.

I already wrote a long piece about Dye in the post linked above. He's a hard player to judge, despite the fact that he's a 12-year major league veteran, due to the fact that he spent three years at the beginning of his career as a part-timer, and lost parts of three other seasons due to injuries. I still can't explain what went wrong in the first half, but Dye's splits have actually been slightly better Pre All-Star since 2004. He's not finished by any means yet, and I think the caveats that applied coming into 2007 apply in 2008. Don't bet on 2006, but his 2005 or 2007 numbers are well within reach. If he splits the difference between 2006-2007, that's just gravy. I'm guessing conventional wisdom is going to tick him down a few more notches due to age, but Dye's overall performance the last three years tells me that a 30 HR/90 RBI season is well within reach.

2) Robinson Cano.
Pre All-Star 328 AB, 6 HR, 40 RBI, 2 SB, .274 BA, .314 OBP, .427 SLG
Post All-Star 289 AB, 13 HR, 57 RBI, 2 SB, .343 BA, .396 OBP, .557 SLG

Here's a player whose second half stats dovetail quite nicely with his developmental curve, and thus should be taken very seriously. I don't think it's a coincidence that Cano's two best power months - August (7 HR) and July (6 HR) were the same months that he also walked more (12, 7) than he did in any other month. Yes, 39 BB in 664 plate appearances is still pathetic. But it's also five more walks than Cano drew in his first two seasons combined, and some hitters are gifted enough that 40 walks a year makes all the difference. 30 HR might be asking a lot from Cano, but I don't think a 25 HR year is out of the question. I've seen some $30+ bids already in one or two fantasy publications, and now I know why.

3) Aubrey Huff.
Pre All-Star 314 AB, 6 HR, 38 RBI, 0 SB, .258 BA, .294 OBP, .392 SLG
Post All-Star 236 AB, 9 HR, 34 RBI, 1 SB, .309 BA, .389 OBP, .508 SLG

There is little to read into here. Aubrey Huff is just a slow starter. In 2006, he went a woeful 18 for 102 (.176) in April and May before finally waking up with a torrid June. 2005 saw Huff hit only 5 HR through June and then catch fire as the weather heated up, smashing 14 HR in July and August alone. He's a 31 year old who is an OK Roto option, but it doesn't look like he'll return to his 2002-2004 peak form with Tampa Bay.

4) Bobby Abreu.
Pre All-Star 323 AB, 5 HR, 41 RBI, 12 SB, .263 BA, .351 OBP, .372 SLG
Post All-Star 282 AB, 11 HR, 60 RBI, 13 SB, .305 BA, .390 OBP, .528 SLG

I also wrote about Abreu in my September write-up of strong second-half performances. There's some healthy debate going on right now over at Alex Patton's player database, and the conventional wisdom seems to be that Abreu's a player on the decline. That decline, though, has been going on since 2005; it's not something new that suddenly started happening last year. With Abreu, it's best to bet on his continuing to be a solid player but not looking at his second half and expecting a return to his pre-2005 form. It's most likely not going to happen.

5) Jose Vidro.
Pre All-Star 301 AB, 3 HR, 26 RBI, 0 SB, .286 BA, .349 OBP, .349 SLG
Post All-Star 247 AB, 3 HR, 33 RBI, 0 SB, .348 BA, .418 OBP, .449 SLG

Given the lack of power, I'm not inclined to put any stock in Vidro's second half numbers. He's a groundball hitter (G/F 1.68 in 2007), and Vidro's lack of power is simply going to be a fact of life from now on. There is perhaps something to the argument that the spacious home dimensions help some of Vidro's balls drop in, as he hit .330 at Safeco last year versus .298 on the road. But that's not a skill I want to bet on. Vidro could hit .285 next year without any appreciable erosion of his skills.

Worst 5 Post All-Star Drops

1) Justin Morneau
Pre All-Star 322 AB, 24 HR, 74 RBI, 0 SB, .295 BA, .364 OBP, .581 SLG
Post All-Star 268 AB, 7 HR, 37 RBI, 1 SB, .243 BA, .318 OBP, .384 SL

Google "Justin Morneau" and "slump", and you come up with this intriguing article about the probability of Morneau going 104 AB without a home run. The conclusion of the article was that - based on Morneau's major league history to date - that the 104 AB streak was "clearly an outlier, and not one we'd expect a healthy Morneau ever to repeat in his career.

If this is the case, then it's entirely possible that Morneau could continue to build on his power production the way that many young hitters do and become a 40 HR guy sooner rather than later. It's worth noting, though, that this is the second year in a row that Morneau slumped in the power department. He hit 23 HR in 300 Pre All-Star AB but only 11 in 292 Post All-Star AB in 2006. This drop was buried beneath his .342 BA and .930 OPS Post All-Star and an MVP award.

The fact that Morneau has slumped like this two years in a row makes me wonder if it isn't an anomaly. It's possible that he's the inverse of Aubrey Huff, and simply isn't a second half hitter. However, it also could be a conditioning issue, or tied into fatigue. I don't have a simple answer, but if Morneau gets off to a fast start in 2008, keep in mind that it might not be a breakout, but the continuation of a two-year trend.

2) Carlos Guillen
Pre All-Star 283 AB, 14 HR, 67 RBI, 7 SB, .325 BA, .393 OBP, .567 SLG
Post All-Star 281 AB, 7 HR, 35 RBI, 6 SB, ,267 BA, .320 OBP, .427 SLG

Like Dye, Guillen has a checkered injury history, so it's difficult to determine whether or not Guillen wore down in the second half or if the numbers are a portent to something we should worry about in 2008. His Post All-Star numbers in 2006 were actually better than his Pre All-Star numbers that year, though given his .548 SLG that year, one would have expected more than 9 HR. Overall, I think Guillen is an excellent second-tier player who simply isn't going to crack $30 and break into the first tier of hitters. He earned $27 last year, and a $22-24 bid seems sensible.

3) Kevin Youkilis
Pre All-Star 293 AB, 9 HR, 44 RBI, 2 SB, .328 BA, .419 OBP, .502 SLG
Post All-Star 235 AB, 7 HR, 39 RBI, 2 SB, .238 BA, .356 OBP, .391 SLG

For the second year in a row, Youkilis slumped in the second half, particularly in the power categories. The 7 Post All-Star HR hide it, but Youk's doubles dropped from 22 Pre-All Star to 13 Post All-Star last year. He's a good hitter, but I think people sometimes think that Youk is younger than his 28 years and more of a walk machine than he actually is. He's probably at about the level of performance that you would expect overall: a 15-20 HR hitter who will hit .280-.300. Since he's slumped in the second half two years running, I wouldn't look at his Post All-Star 2007 and link it to a trend for 2008.

4) Brandon Inge
Pre All-Star 266 AB, 11 HR, 41 RBI, 5 SB, .248 BA, .340 OBP, .421 SLG
Post All-Star 242 AB, 3 HR, 30 RBI, 4 SB, ,223 BA, .280 OBP, .326 SLG

Inge certainly wasn't a great first half hitter, but he completely fell off the map in the second half. The walks dropped from 33 Pre All-Star to 14 Post All-Star. One thing to look at is that he simply tanked against righties all year, posting a meager 621 OPS in 397 AB. Inge was never a stalwart, but his 2007 clearly was a drop from his 776, 749, and 793 OPSs from 2004-2006. We might not get to find out if his second half slump was a fluke or the beginning of a trend; he's buried behind Miguel Cabrera on the Tigers depth chart, and the Tigers are having trouble dumping his contract elsewhere. If Inge does get a job elsewhere, I'd worry that his second half and his problems against righties could be the sign that he's not going to bounce back.

5) Orlando Cabrera
Pre All-Star 5 HR, 51 RBI, 10 SB, .328 BA, .366 OBP, .444 SLG
Post All-Star 3 HR, 35 RBI, 10 SB, .268 BA, .321 OBP, .338 SLG

The steals have always kind of masked the fact that Cabrera has never really been all that great. Outside of his one big year for the Expos in 2003, Cabrera's never cracked an 800 OPS, and 2004-2007 has seen him put up 634, 674, 739 and 742 OPSs. His first half is what really stands out as an outlier. I think Cabrera's OK to own at $15-17 because of the steals, but I wouldn't expect him to come close to .300 ever.