In my last post, I looked at the A.L. rookie hitters that John Sickels, the superb analyst at Minor League Ball rated a B+ or higher on his web site this winter. Today, I'll move over to the N.L. hitting pool.
Grade A
1) Jay Bruce. 2007 Stats (High-A/AA/AAA): 521 AB, 26 HR, 89 RBI, 8 SB, 47 BB, 135 K, .319 BA, .375 OBP, .587 SLG.
At this point, any debate about Bruce isn't going to concern what his ceiling is. He put those numbers up as a 20-year old last year, and held his own as he moved from level to level. There's an excellent chance that Bruce is going to be the Reds Opening Day center fielder, so we can't simply say he's a top farm or reserve pick and leave it at that.
My take on Bruce is that he'll struggle a little bit out of the gate if the Reds bring him up. His raw power is undeniable, and he'll hit home runs on cripple pitches. But his high K/AB rate suggests that he's still learning to hit off-speed offerings, and I think his batting average will dip down to about .260-.270 as a result. In the power department, he could still hit 25 HR, but that might be on the high end of expectations for a 21-year old rookie.
The bid falls in at $12 in a non-carryover league but at $18-20 in a freeze league. There's no way you can let Bruce slip below $15 in a freeze league. Even if he's tanking, people still might pay the going 2-for-1 rate in a dump deal based on his potential alone.
2) Colby Rasmus. 2007 Stats (AA): 472 AB, 29 HR, 72 RBI, 18 SB, 70 BB, 108 K, .275 BA, .381 OBP, .551 SLG.
Personally, I'd downgrade Rasmus to an A-, but that's because I believe he projects long-term as a $25-30 hitter as opposed to the $35 hitter Bruce might be some day. Rasmus, though, is probably a better short-term investment. He has better strike zone management, similar power to Bruce, and speed that won't go away once he reaches the majors. Unlike Bruce, though, there's a good chance that Rasmus will start the year in Triple-A. The Cardinals look like they're retooling for 2009 or later, and throwing Rasmus into the fire at the age of 21 doesn't make a lot of sense. Naturally, there is the temptation to bring Rasmus up sooner than later, since there won't be a lot else to look forward to in St. Louis, but my guess is he starts in the minors.
If he does make the team, I'd bid $16, if only because he could be a 15-15 guy right out of the gate. Be aware, though, that the batting average might not be so good right away, and the RBI opportunities in St. Louis might not be as plentiful as they've been in the past.
Grade A-
3) Joey Votto. 2007 Stats (AAA/Majors): 580 AB, 26 HR, 109 RBI, 18 SB, 75 BB, 125 K, .298 BA, .379 OBP, .498 SLG.
At 24, Votto is older than Bruce and Rasmus, and that's why I suspect the grade is a tick lower. He looks like a more polished product, but he's probably pretty close to his ceiling. That isn't to say that Votto isn't a good player to target in your auction. He did very well in his cup of coffee in September, and might see less regression in his MLB stats due to his age. Even if the power drops a little, Votto might still hit .280 with 15 HR and a good deal of ribbies. The steals are illusory; Votto was caught 10 times, and he'll probably see the red light more often than not. I'd go $14. One complication is the continued presence of Scott Hatteburg. Votto might start out in a quasi-platoon, which would obviously compromise his value.
4) Cameron Maybin. 2007 Stats (R/High-A/AA/Majors): 372 AB, 15 HR, 55 RBI, 30 SB, 54 BB, 112 K, .293 BA, .383 OBP, .489 SLG.
Thanks to the speed, Maybin arguably has the highest Roto ceiling of anyone on this list. But he probably also has the broadest range of possibilities as well. He did fine for a 20-year-old who spent most of his season in High-A ball. But that's the problem: Maybin was rushed to the majors for a cup of coffee that tasted like saccharine. Understandably, the Tigers were still on the fringes of a pennant race, and hoping to inject life into their sagging season. But now that Maybin's been in The Show, the temptation will be for the Marlins to start him off in the majors if he has a strong spring. They shouldn't. He's still a work-in-progress, and he could very well hit .230 or so over the course of a full major league season.
That being said, Maybin still has a lot of Roto potential because of the steals and the developing power. He's still worth a $12 bid and, like Bruce, potentially more in carryover leagues.
5) Andy LaRoche. 2007 Stats (AAA/Majors): 348 AB, 19 HR, 58 RBI, 4 SB, 59 BB, 66 K, .296 BA, .398 OBP, .532 SLG.
The big issue with LaRoche is the question of where he'd play in the majors. The Dodgers have Nomar Garciaparra at 3B, and I don't think they'd stick him on the bench, even though LaRoche at this point might be a better bet. The batting average did tank in the small MLB sample size, but LaRoche kept on walking, posting 20 walks in 103 plate appearances in the majors. That's an indication to me that he'd control the strike zone and eventually see the average bump back up to about .270 or .280. I do wonder about the power of all Dodgers prospects, as Dodger Stadium tends to always be one of the least favorable power venues in the majors. For now, LaRoche gets no bid, as I think he'll start the year in AAA.
6) Andrew McCutchen. 2007 Stats (AA/AAA): 513 AB, 11 HR, 53 RBI, 21 SB, 48 BB, 94 K, .265 BA, .328 OBP, .388 SLG.
Scouts rave about McCutchen, but the skills haven't caught up with the tools yet. McCutchen gets a little credit for doing OK as a 21-year-old in Double-A, but those numbers mean that he should probably go back to the minors and maybe even start out in AA once again. He's a definite farm/reserve pick, and if you're looking for immediate production in 2008, you should downgrade him on your farm list accordingly.
Grade B+
The National League had 13 hitters rated with a B+ by Sickels. Following the format I set forth in my A.L. post, I'll rate these guys into four categories for 2008: high impact, possible impact, unlikely or low impact, and zero impact.
High Impact: Geovany Soto
With only Henry Blanco and Koyie Hill currently sitting on the Cubs depth chart, I'm assuming Soto is going to be the Cubs starting catcher on Opening Day. He's a tough prospect to project, since his power burst in 2007 came out of nowhere; his prior HR high in the minors was nine for High-A West Tennessee in 2004 before breaking out with a 26 HR season at AAA last year. He might regress a little in the majors, but keep in mind that minor league catchers sometimes take longer to figure out their craft than other position players. I'd bid $11 and take the chance that Soto might hit 20 HR, a rarity from an N.L. Roto catcher.
Possible Impact: Matt Antonelli, Brandon Jones, Steven Pearce.
Antonelli should probably be in the low impact group of hitters. He did well at High-A Lake Elsinore, and then held his own in Double-A later in the year, but the Tadahito Iguchi signing means that the Padres will wisely let Antonelli get a full year of additional seasoning under his belt. Jones has had a solid minor league career, but he might be one of those tweeners who doesn't hit for enough power for a corner OF position, but is a little too slow to play CF. He has half a season at AAA, and that's where he think he'll at least start 2008. Pearce smoked 31 HR on a journey that started at High-A Lynchburg and ended in the majors The power and the walks dropped a lot between AA and the majors, and I think that Pearce is also heading back to AAA. He needs a position, as the Pirates are locked up in the OF and at 1B.
Low Impact: Chase Headley, Chris Marrero, Jordan Schaffer.
Headley put up incredible numbers in Double-A last year, but he's 23 years old and the clock is starting to tick a little bit. He also looks like he doesn't have a position in the majors right now with Kevin Kouzmanoff playing more than adequately at 3B. There's been talk the the Pads might move him to left in AAA to start 2008. Marrero is only 19 years old, but I could see him up in September for a cup of coffee if he does well this year. He might have the highest ceiling of any Nationals prospect. He probably belongs in the no impact group, but the list here is already thin so I thought I'd include him. Schaffer's already being mentioned as a possible replacement for Mark Kotsay after the inevitable Kotsay injury, but he's another prospect who looks like he's at least a full year away if not two - he finished 2007 in High-A ball.
No Impact: Michael Burgess, Jason Heyward, Matt LaPorta, Fernando Martinez, Angel Villalona, Josh Vitters.
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