In my last two posts, I broke down the American League and National League hitters that John Sickels over at his Minor League Ball blog gave a B+ or higher. For this post, I'm going to combine the cream-of-the-crop pitching prospects into one post.
One reason is that minor league pitchers are not only a lot harder to forecast, but it's also harder to see where they're coming from. Yovani Gallardo and Tim Lincecum were two of the more highly touted National League pitching prospects heading into 2007, and rightfully so. Predictably, both were called up mid-year. Each pitcher provided positive earnings, with Gallardo earning $12 and Lincecum $9.
Both were out-earned, though, by Kyle Kendrick. Kendrick was a C prospect in Sickels' off-season ratings who didn't even crack the Phillies Top 20. Even in Ultra leagues, it's possible that Kendrick remained undrafted. Yet it was Kendrick, and not Gallardo or Lincecum, who provided more Roto value in 2007.
With that in mind, I'm just going to look at the A and A- pitchers in both leagues. That doesn't mean that I don't think guys like Eric Hurley, Greg Smith and Gio Gonzalez might not all provide some positive Roto value in 2008. It's just that there are some pitchers in the minors who aren't highly rated who we're not even thinking about now who could very well be the guys we're talking about this coming October.
Grade A
1) Clay Buchholz 2007 Stats (AA/AAA/Majors): 11-6, 148 IP, 2.31 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 171 K, 45 BB, 9 HR.
It looks like there's no room at the inn right now in Boston, but Buchholz could arguably be the Red Sox second best starter if the Sox did decide to put him on the team right now. He's got five plus pitches, and actually works best off the curve and the change to set hitters up with either a four-seam or two-seam fastball. He was hitting 95-97 MPH on the gun last year, though he's more typically a 92-94 MPH guy. He scuffled a little bit in his 38 2/3 AAA innings, with a human 3.96 ERA and 5 HR allowed, but I'm willing to believe that Buchholz will do better than that in the majors. He's as sure a thing as a pitching prospect can be. Of course, we all know that that's no sure thing. I don't like making pitchers high reserve picks, but Buchholz should go in the top three or four of an A.L. only farm draft.
2) Joba Chamberlain 2007 Stats (High A/AA/AAA/Majors): 11-2, 112 1/3 IP, 2.01 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 169 K, 33 BB, 5 HR.
You could rank Chamberlain ahead of Buchholz if you like; they're that close in terms of raw stuff, ability, and potential (For a more detailed article, check out this great piece over at Mound Talk. Both have the potential to be great. I personally think Chamberlain is more of a raw product right now, as both his curve and change-up need some polish, and it's possible he'll just abandon the curve as he goes along.
The Catch-22 with Joba - both in terms of his developmental curve and in terms of his Roto value - is what his role will be going forward. There have been a lot of conflicting reports coming out of New York about whether or not he'll start, go back to the pen, or possibly start out in the pen and finish the year in rotation. Personally, I think if he's a starter at the beginning of the year, he might struggle a little bit, particularly the second or third time around a line-up. He has less than 50 innings as a Double A starter or higher under his belt. Switching back to the pen late in the year makes me think it might take longer to stretch him out.
The bid's a tough call. I'd be willing to go $11 for potential, even in a 4x4, with the hopes that he saves the games Mo can't, gets a few cheap wins, and puts up a stellar ERA/WHIP. As a reliever, that is. As a starter, I'd drop the bid a couple of bucks, since I think the range of expectations at that point include a few more negatives.
3) Jacob McGee. 2007 Stats (High A/AA): 8-6, 140 IP, 3.15 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 175 K, 52 BB, 10 HR.
Despite the A Grade, I don't think McGee's in the same class as Buchholz and Chamberlain. But that's more of a compliment to them than a knock on McGee. Furthermore, McGee was a 20-year-old pitcher who held his own in Double-A in five starts at the end of the year. My feeling is that McGee won't be up in Tampa this year. Andy Sonnanstine and Edwin Jackson might very well be placeholders for McGee and David Price (see below), but I think that the Rays won't rush McGee. As a reserve pick, I'd go late 1st or high 2nd round for McGee in a farm system league.
4) Clayton Kershaw. 2007 Stats (Low A/AA): 8-7, 122 IP, 2.95 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 163 K, 67 BB, 9 HR.
There are a lot of raves about Kershaw, but sometimes these 19-year-old phenoms are the Roto equivalent of pyrite. Kershaw was masterful in Low A ball, but struggled in AA, where he continued to be unhittable but started walking batters all over the park in his five starts there. Obviously, that's not enough data to say if its a trend or not. But Kershaw is at least two years away in my mind, and maybe even three. He's only a good reserve pick in leagues with deeper farm systems.
5) David Price. 2007 Stats (College): 11-1, 133 1/3 IP, 2.63 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 194 K, 31 BB, 3 HR.
Price might belong up with Buchholz and Chamberlain, but I'm always wary of spending a farm pick on a player with zero professional experience. That doesn't mean someone else won't, though. Guys like Price are gone quickly in more minor-league oriented leagues if you don't spend an early pick. At the very least, he won't be in your minor league draft next year, even if he doesn't go early. Price could even hit the majors this year but, like McGee, I don't see the Rays rushing him.
Grade A-
6) Johnny Cueto. 2007 Stats (High A/AA/AAA): 12-9, 161 IP, 3.07 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 170 K, 34 BB, 11 HR.
Cueto's a fastball, change-up, slider guy who actually works off the slider. All three pitchers are plus pitches, though the change is still a relative work in progress. Unlike some of the guys above him on this list, Cueto has an opportunity to either break camp with the Reds or at least jump into the rotation sooner rather than later. If he makes the team, I'd give him a conservative $7 bid in a non-carryover league. Cueto wore down a little bit in the second half, and I worry that he might be a burnout candidate given his small size and sudden jump up the ladder.
7) Franklin Morales. 2007 Stats (AA/AAA/Majors): 8-6, 152 IP, 3.49 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 119 K, 72 BB, 11 HR.
Like Cueto, Morales has a high ceiling, but the walks continue to dog him. I'm also a little perturbed that he didn't strike out a batter an inning at any level, and his major league total dropped to under six per nine IP. He's got great stuff, with a three-pitch arsenal of fastball, curve, change, but it seems to me like his numbers should have been more dominant based on the stuff. My bid is a low $5. That might not get him, but I'm guessing Morales struggles at first as long as his K/BB rates remain so-so.
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