Today, I ran the expert auction for Alex Patton in the CBS Sportsline expert league.
The results still aren't posted, so I'm not going to do a complete analysis tonight. However, I will run though how I did for the Patton team, while providing complete analysis later in the week.
Catchers: Jason Varitek $9, John Buck $3
A nice catching duo for $12, albeit an average drag on both counts. Varitek went somewhat early, and given some of the other catching prices later, was a comparative bargain. Buck was my last player for over $1, and I was targeting him with my final competitive bid. All of the other catchers who went were back-ups, so I was glad to fill in my roster with 13 everyday players.
Corner Infielders: Josh Fields $14, Lyle Overbay $13, Melvin Mora $7.
I like all three prices, though I might have been better served with one higher priced, big bopper. I didn't get any of these guys until Overbay at the end of the 9th round of the auction, so I actually felt a little lucky that I got him at this price. Fields I like at $14 though, again, there are average concerns here. Mora is slipping, but at $7 I feel like he's still a bargain.
Middle Infielders: Brian Roberts $26, Aaron Hill $17, Luis Hernandez $1
In Sportsline, you can't keep players traded to the "other" league, so Roberts is a risk if the long-rumored trade to the Cubs is ever finalized. However, he was one of the cheaper 30+ SB speed options available, so I felt the risk was worth it. Hill at $17 was near my par value and he went relatively early. Given what some of the other 2B/SS went for, his price looked strong later. Luis Hernandez was the last hitter I bought. While I obviously would have liked to buy 14 everyday players, Hernandez was fine for my final buy in a 12-team A.L. only league.
Outfielders: Vlad Guerrero $36, Raul Ibanez $17, Garret Anderson $14, J.D. Drew $14, Jose Guillen $13.
On the surface, these prices look OK. But this is one of the places I made a moderate tactical error. There were several outfielders who went cheaper later, and if I had waited a little longer rather than locking up my OF with Drew, I would have had a greater opportunity at some better bargains. However, many of the teams that cashed in on these late OF bargains ate into their profits with some high buys at MI or C. For my stud player, Vlad was cheaply priced compared to A-Rod and Miguel Cabrera. Drew at $14 has a ton of upside, though we all know the downside as well.
DH: Frank Thomas $14
Nothing wrong with this price, even if Thomas only plays 120-130 games, but Jason Giambi and Jose Vidro both snuck in for $1 later after teams were blocked. I could have done better here for that reason alone.
Starting Pitchers: Erik Bedard $27, Chien-Ming Wang $15, Mark Buehrle $10, Adam Loewen $2, Jason Jennings $1, Edwin Jackson $1, Troy Patton $1.
Eh. I started out fine with Bedard, who I have projected #1 in the A.L. Starting pitching got more expensive in the middle rounds, with pitchers I had projected $5-8 lower than Bedard creeping to within $1-2 of his price. After that, though, I feel like I could have or should have added one more arm. Wang and Buehrle are better for 4x4 than 5x5, though they're both OK at these prices. The rest of this crew is weak. Because it was weak, I decided to take some chances in the end, which could spell trouble. I like Loewen at $2, but have to admit he's a risk. Since I needed to roll the dice, I gambled on Jennings, Jackson, and Patton; I might have been better off grabbing some of the other $1 endgame guys later. Time will tell. I'll probably need to make a trade and play the FAAB wires aggressively.
Relievers: Jamie Walker $4, Fernando Rodney $1
I didn't enter the auction deciding to dump saves, but didn't like the prices closers were going for early on. I could have bought some of the lower-tier options cheap, but decided instead to buy as much offense as possible. Walker at $4 could be the closer. He might not, but at $4 I don't mind the risk. There are two other teams without a closer; I'm hoping Walker gets some early saves and I can sneak three points out of the category. Rodney's fine as a 9th pitcher, but I'm not expecting any saves.
Outlook
It certainly wasn't my greatest auction ever, but I like this team on the whole. I'll need to make some trades, but it looks pretty solid compared to some of the other teams out there. I'll know more once I review all of the teams looking at the Sportsline projections and see how I shake out. I give myself a B or a B+. I made a few minor tactical errors, but on the whole I adjusted well as I went along and feel like I have a competitive squad.
5 comments:
I love your catchers and the decline in Varitek's price compared to the other catchers you posted on Alex's site is outstanding.
I don't like the Roberts play. He's going to move and probably to the Cubs before the season starts. Even the FAAB dollars won't help you. Plus, he's your only real speed, so he doesn't even help that much.
I'll have to look at the other outfielders, but I like your crop. Jose Guillen is the biggest bargain of the bunch. You should do very well in HR, RBI, and Runs. Maybe even win all three.
I would have totally dumped steals and gotten a high average middle infielder instead of Roberts- maybe Kendrick, who has a high upside- although I don't know what he cost - then spent the remainder in pitching, getting a fourth good starter.
Just give up saves for now. If you can replace your dead pitchers with guys who will get some Ks you should be solid in Wins, ERA, and Ratio and solid in Ks. Then, perhaps you can trade some power for a two closers around the trade deadline.
Good luck.
Roberts came up pretty early. I wasn't planning on dumping any categories. I probably should have bought more speed, but wasn't thrilled by some of the other prices at the time.
I agree Roberts could be moved, though I keep thinking that if it was going to happen it might have happened by now. It's not out of the question that he hangs around until the summer.
Keep in mind that the American League is so thin in speed that Roberts alone might put me ahead of 3-4 other teams. He's also a good runs play, a decent BA play, and contributes in BA.
I agree he's a risk. But I bought him knowing the risk, and I'll live with the consequences.
Guillen could be a great buy as he's going from Seattle (where fly balls go to die) to KC. That said, as a Royal fan, I don't like their signing him.
This is off-topic, but perhaps you could comment about a new rules change my 12 team AL carryover league is about to approve. We're cutting an OFer and adding a pitcher to better reflect the reality of AL rosters.
We will also up the minimum IP requirement from 900 to 1000.
I hope you don't mind if I respond as well.
Outfield is one of the scarcer positions in a 12 team AL league. It's actually second after catcher. Catchers (14 starters/24 drafted); middle infield and corner (28/36); outfield (42/60); DH (14/12).
My league has always had 1000 IP minimum. My secondary league has a high 1125 IP minimum.
While major league rosters have added pitchers over the past 10-15 years, many of those pitchers are LOOGYs (lefty one-out guys) or other short specialists. They are not guys who accumulate a decent amount of innings pitched. Given that, I would suggest that if your league wants to add a pitcher, keep 14 hitters and go to 10 pitchers, raising the IP to 1000, adding $11 to the team total, although realistically, you are adding more crapshoot pitchers, so it should really only raise your budget to $261 not $260.
I will actually have an article on auction pitching distribution on baseballthinkfatory.org in the next week. My first Rotisserie piece posted yesterday as the first part of a two parter. I explore category budgeting in a Stage 3 league and position scarcity in Part II.
hey rodger, I hope my post on the subject is what you were looking for.
eugene, the whole idea of the blog is a lively dialog. By all means, I love it when readers throw in their two cents. I love writing about Roto, but part of what I'm attempting here is to create a conversation amongst the experts who might not have a web site or a forum, but who have real world Roto experience at their disposal and can offer a counterpoint to experts who know a lot about baseball but are sometimes lacking in practical Roto know-how.
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