Minor Leaguers - A.L. Hitters

Keith Law has a column up over at ESPN rating the Top 100 Prospects of 2008. As always with Keith Law, it's an extremely well written and edifying column.

One of the more significant challenges in Roto, however, is figuring out what kind of price tag to put on these guys in your auction. Ratings often take defense into account, which most Roto leagues don't use. Furthermore, some of these projections look at the bigger, long-term picture of where these players will be in five years. As a baseball fan, that's the kind of information I devour, but as a Roto player, knowing that Jose Tabata is going to be a superstar in 2013 doesn't do me much good now.

With that in mind, I thought I'd look at some of John Sickels' B+ or higher prospects from his Minor League Ball blog and put up some early 4x4 bid limits for the guys who will have an impact in 2008.

Grade A
Evan Longoria 2007 Numbers (AA/AAA): 485 AB, 26 HR, 95 RBI, 4 SB, .299 BA, 73 BB, 110 K, .402 OBP, .510 SLG
In the American League, Evan Longoria is in a class by himself as a prospect. Assuming he wins the Rays third-base job, he'll play 2008 as a 22-year old, and I'd agree with Law that Longoria's the morning-line favorite for A.L. Rookie of the Year. From a Roto standpoint, though, I wouldn't break the bank on him. Most likely, Longoria will initially be a 15-20 HR hitter with a .260 to .270 average. That's great for a 22-year old kid, but it might not even put him in the first tier of A.L. third basemen. Bid $14.

Grade A-
Jacoby Ellsbury 2007 (AA/AAA/Majors): 552 AB, 5 HR, 59 RBI, 50 SB, .330 BA, 46 BB, 60 K, .381 OBP, .442 SLG
I like Ellsbury, but the power he showed in his 116 major league AB for the Red Sox probably isn't sustainable, at least not in the short-term. I also don't think he's going to run quite as much for the Red Sox, a slightly more conservative speed team than most. I'm not as apt or willing to run him into the ground as some of his detractors are, and I think he'll eventually be a fine 10-15 HR player with very good speed. But don't get sucked into the postseason hype. Bid $14.

Jed Lowrie 2007 (AA/AAA): 497 AB, 13 HR, 70 RBI, 5 SB, .298 BA, 77 BB, 91 K, .392 OBP, .503 SLG
At best, Lowrie will get a cup of coffee in September for the Red Sox, as he currently doesn't have a place to play. He hit 47 doubles last year, so he could be one of those players who finds a little more power in his bat as he develops. I'm not as high on Lowrie as John Sickels is, but I still view Lowrie as a strong B+ prospect who is worth a high pick in leagues with farm systems.

Matt Wieters. 2007 DNP (college)
Guys like Wieters are problematic in terms of where to rank them. On the one hand, I don't like drafting players with zero professional experience. On the other, I know that if I have a high pick, Wieters is the best player on the board, and I don't pick him, then someone else will. My advice is only to make a pick like this if you already have a deep farm system and can afford to wait. Getting someone with more impact/upside is better if you're playing for this year.

Grade B+
There are 17 of these hitters in the American League. Rather than give a full profile of each, I thought I'd break them out into four categories for 2008: high impact, possible impact, unlikely or low impact, and zero impact.

High Impact: Adam Jones, Daric Barton
Jones should get a clean shot at a right-field job in 2008, whether it is with the Mariners or the Orioles. His poor K/BB means that he might hit .240, but Jones can definitely mash and will still put up decent power numbers if he gets 450-500 AB. Bid $12. Barton is the better long-term prospect than Jones, but he won't hit for power initially. He's a sweet hitter, though, and I think the A's will break camp with him as their starting 1B. Bid $11.

Possible Impact: Brandon Wood, Carlos Gonzalez
Unless the Angels move Chone Figgins, it looks like Wood's best path to the majors is now at SS. For the moment, the Angels seem committed to starting the year with Erick Aybar at the position, so I suspect Wood will go to AAA to start the year. There's a good chance, though, that he'll be up in June if Aybar struggles. I'm starting to worry about Wood. He can clearly hit for power, but his batting average and K/BB last year in the minors means he might hit .230 out of the gate. Gonzalez probably should be moved into the unlikely impact column. He spent 2007 in Double-A, and his K/BB rates are also poor. He looks to me like a work in progress, and I think the A's will stick with Emil Brown all year in the OF, unless Gonzalez really rips it up at AAA.

Low Impact: Travis Snider, Reid Brignac, Jeff Clement, Jose Tabata
Snider's opportunity would come only if Adam Lind doesn't produce this year. It's likely the Blue Jays leave him in AAA all year. Brignac will probably push Jason Barrett aside in 2009, but I don't think the Rays have much to gain by flipping Barrett in July and sticking Brignac at SS in early August. Clement has the best shot of all the players in this group of putting up 250-300 worth of AB, but he doesn't have position right now. I think Clement will eventually become a 1B/DH type, but the Mariners probably will stick with Richie Sexson at 1B and Jose Vidro at DH all year. Tabata really belongs in the last group, as I don't think the Yankees would bring up a 19-year old who is still developing and played all of last year at High A-ball. But he is a special talent, and the Yanks brought up lesser light Melky Cabrera at the age of 20 for a cup of coffee in 2005. Don't be utterly shocked if Tabata spends a couple of weeks at the stadium in 2008.

No Impact: Lars Anderson, Elvis Andrus, Chris Carter (OAK), Hank Conger, Chris Davis, Desmond Jennings, Mike Moustakas, Carlos Triunfel.

These are all farm picks for leagues with deep systems or leagues that allow you to keep farm players for long stretches of time. You'll hear talk of Triunel possibly making the majors late this year, but I think the Mariners will stick with Yuniesky Betancourt all year.