The most expensive starters in the American League last year delivered. How did everyone else do?Next Ten Most Expensive (11-20) A.L. Starting Pitchers 2009
#
| Player | $ | Sal
| +/-
| AP
| SW
| '08
|
| 11 | Joba Chamberlain | $7 | $19 | -12
| $16 | $20 | $14 |
| 12 | Daisuke Matsuzaka
| -$2 | $19 | -20
| $19 | $17
| $24 |
| 13 | Kevin Slowey
| $8 | $18 | -11
| $16
| $12 | $18 |
| 14 | Cliff Lee
| $16 | $18
| -2
| $23
| $17
| $37
|
| 15 | Jon Lester | $30 | $16 | +13 | $26 | $21 | $24 |
| 16 | Scott Baker | $22
| $16
| +6
| $11
| $13
| $21
|
| 17 | Matt Garza
| $20 | $16 | +5 | $14 | $16 | $18 |
| 18 | Ervin Santana
| $6 | $16 | -11
| $14 | $13 | $31 |
| 19 | Gil Meche
| $2 | $16 | -13
| $11
| $9
| $19
|
| 20 | Erik Bedard
| $13 | $15 | -2 | $16 | $11 | $9 |
| Average
| $12 | $17 | -5
| $17 | $15 | $22 |
Not so good. Without Lester in there, these guys lost $7 per pitcher.
It is telling that this bloc of pitchers earned almost as much per pitcher in 2008 as the 10 most expensive pitchers. The market expected most of these pitchers to slip, and more often than not they were right. Dice-K, Santana and Meche all fell hard, while Garza and Baker got slightly better but outperformed market expectations. Factoring in Lee's numbers in Philly, he put up a $27 season...$10 less than what he did in 2008, but much better than his price here.
This group of pitchers does what we typically expect them to do. They're less reliable than the top pitchers, and there's more variability from pitcher to pitcher. Even the predictions between the market, Patton, and Sports Weekly are scatter shot. Patton loved Lee and Lester and held back on Meche. Sports Weekly was conservative on Slowey, Meche, and Bedard. The market was a little bit out in front on Baker and Meche. In some cases, the market's reservations seemed a little odd in the moment, but in hindsight their relative conservatism made a lot of sense.
Next Ten (21-30) Most Expensive A.L. Starting Pitchers 2009
#
| Player | $ | Sal
| +/-
| AP
| SW
| '08
|
| 21 | Justin Verlander
| $37 | $15 | +22
| $18 | $18 | $10 |
| 22 | Jered Weaver
| $25 | $14 | +11
| $12 | $12
| $15 |
23
| John Danks
| $20 | $14 | +6
| $15
| $16 | $22 |
24
| David Price
| $11 | $12
| -1
| R1
| $15
| $2
|
25
| Mark Buehrle
| $19 | $11 | +7
| $14 | $10 | $18 |
26
| Gavin Floyd
| $20 | $11
| +9
| $12
| $7
| $19
|
27
| Chien-Ming Wang
| -$8 | $11 | -19
| $19 | $12 | $8 |
28
| Andy Sonnanstine
| -$4
| $10 | -14
| $11 | $7 | $14 |
29
| Fausto Carmona
| -$6 | $9
| -15
| $14
| $7
| -$1
|
30
| Justin Duchscherer
|
| $8 | -8 | $4 | $9 | $23 |
| Average
| $12 | $12 | -0
| $12 | $11 | $13 |
This next group earned exactly what the 11-20 bracket did while costing $5 less per pitcher. The flip of that, though, is that these pitchers earned a relatively paltry $13 on average in 2008, including Duchscherer, who everyone knew was going to miss at least part of the season when he was purchased last spring. There are some big pay cuts here (Danks, Buehrle, and Floyd), but Buehrle and Floyd have a lot to do with the fear that their strikeout numbers would be low.
There's a pattern among the first 30 pitchers here. The market's relative fervor over hitters isn't matched on the pitching side and - as a result - both Patton and SW are out in front on a few of these names. Patton grabs Buehrle, Floyd, Sonnanstine, Wang, and Carmona - while tying SW on Verlander. SW also gets Danks, Price, and Duke. The only pitcher the market gets outright here is Weaver.
Through 30 pitchers, the market "gets" Felix, Kazmir, Burnett, Slowey, Baker, Santana, Meche and Weaver (not counting any ties). For the most part, the market seems to favor younger pitchers who either strike a lot of batters out or who have some kind of upside or perceived upside going forward. The problem the market has is that if it was liberal on hitters, it has to run out of money somewhere, and that starts to happen down here.
Next Ten (31-40) Most Expensive A.L. Starting Pitchers 2009
#
| Player | $ | Sal
| +/-
| AP
| SW
| '08
|
31
| Joe Saunders
| $11 | $8 | +4
| $12 | $8 | $22 |
| 32 | Andy Pettitte
| $16 | $7 | +10
| $7 | $6
| $13 |
33
| Jeremy Guthrie
| $7 | $6 | 0
| $11
| $11 | $18 |
34
| Armando Galarraga
| -$0 | $6
| -6
| $14
| $5
| $18
|
35
| Jesse Litsch
| -$1 | $6 | -7
| $11 | $6 | $18 |
36
| John Smoltz
| -$3 | $5
| -9
| $5
| $10
| $5
|
37
| David Purcey
| -$2 | $5 | -7
| $2 |
| $1 |
38
| Nick Blackburn
| $13
| $4 | +8
| $4 | $3 | $11 |
39
| Dana Eveland
| -$7 | $4
| -11
| $1
|
| $7
|
| 40 | Edwin Jackson
| $23 | $4 | +19 | $4 |
| $7 |
| Average
| $6 | $6 | 0
| $7 | $5 | $12 |
The only pitchers the market grabs outright here are Purcey and Eveland. Patton is on a spending spree now, grabbing Saunders, Galarraga and Litsch, while tying the market on Pettitte, Blackburn and Jackson and SW on Guthrie. That leaves only Smoltz for SW...who Patton and the market happily let them grab.
This group is sort of a microcosm of the 11-20 bracket of pitchers. They nearly earned the same as the 21-30 bracket, yet the market and the touts tread lightly here. Guthrie, Galarraga, and Litsch all take double-digit pay cuts that are vindicated by the results and then some for Galarraga and Litsch.
However, it's important to note that for the average Roto squad these are your third and fourth starting pitchers. Owners need to hold their noses and dive into the pool here, even though half of these pitchers wind up in the red. Jackson turned out to be a find here, but one incredible find out of 10 pitchers certainly doesn't scream success.Next Ten (41-50) Most Expensive A.L. Starting Pitchers 2009
#
| Player | $ | Sal
| +/-
| AP
| SW
| '08
|
41
| Anthony Reyes
| -$2 | $4 | -6
| $7 | $5 | $4 |
42
| Clay Buchholz
| $8 | $3 | +5
| R1 | $1
| -$5 |
43
| Kelvim Escobar
| $0 | $3 | -3
| $5
| $2 |
|
44
| Brett Anderson
| $18 | $3
| +15
| $6
|
|
|
45
| Kyle Davies
| $3 | $3 | +1
| $4 |
| $6 |
46
| Gio Gonzalez
| $1 | $3
| -2
| $1
|
| -$3
|
47
| Tim Wakefield
| $8 | $2 | +5
| $7 | $3
| $16 |
48
| Trevor Cahill
| $7
| $2 | +5
| $1 |
|
|
49
| Koji Uehara
| $6
| $2
| +3
| $6
| $7
|
|
50
| Brad Penny
| $1 | $2 | -1 | $7 | $5 | -$3 |
| Average
| $5 | $3 | +2
| $4 | $2 | $2 |
At a glance, the pitchers at the bottom look like the sort of grinders that you're hoping for when you spend $3 on a starting pitcher in the crapshoot. Getting $5 from your $3 investment is great, and it means that you avoided one of those bombs that have a way of making you look like an idiot, regardless of what you did with your 22 other roster spots. The problem is that these pitchers averaged a paltry 104 innings per starter. Some of that, of course, is the perpetually injured Escobar, but there are still a lot of pitchers here who didn't make it to the finish line.
When you go back and look at these pitchers in groups, this is the most predictable set of pitchers I've seen since I began doing these write-ups.
A.L. SP by Brackets 2009
Cost
Bracket
| $
| Sal
| +/-
|
1-10
| $25
| $23 | +2 |
11-20
| $12
| $17 | -5 |
21-30
| $12
| $12 | -0 |
31-40
| $6
| $6 | 0 |
41-50
| $5
| $3 | +2 |
If every team in your A.L. bought five starting pitchers, you averaged about $60 of value from those pitchers - more or less. Another way of looking at the chart above is that 40% of each team's value came from their ace.
That's a pretty reliable barometer if you're planning your strategy and wondering if spending money on a big ticket ace is the right way to go. Based on the last three years, 2008 looks like the aberration. In 2007, spending big money on pitchers brought back solid returns, compared to what you get back elsewhere. It looks like we returned to that paradigm once again in 2009.
The big change I made on the blog this winter was moving my retrospective pricing from 4x4 to 5x5. I was going to simply leave it at that, but it's worth explaining to some of my readers what impact this is having on the pricing.
Some of the pitchers in these charts are earning more in 5x5 than in 4x4. Alex Patton once called 5x5 "the great equalizer", suggesting that the values at the top get flattened. However, that's not quite right.
In 4x4, the average nine man Roto staff is worth $78; the average 12-team A.L. league churns out $936 worth of stats. In 5x5, 12-team A.L., that same team earns $1,020.
The short explanation is that since you're adding a quantitative pitching category that you're making pitchers somewhat more predictable and, thus, somewhat more valuable. That value is coming in strikeouts. Closers - as you will see - take a pretty big pay cut because while $84 of value is stolen from the hitters, most of the strikeout moolah gets taken from wins and saves. Starting pitchers make some, most, or even all of their money back with whiffs, but closers simply put up enough innings and whiffs pull this trick.
The long and short of it all is that the 10 pitchers in this chart below earned more in 2009 than you might have expected otherwise.
Ten Most Expensive A.L. Starting Pitchers 2009
#
| Player | $ | Sal
| +/-
| AP
| SW
| '08
|
| 1 | CC Sabathia | $34 | $31 | +3
| $32 | $28 | $40 |
| 2 | Roy Halladay | $37 | $28 | +9
| $33 | $30
| $40 |
| 3 | Josh Beckett
| $28 | $23 | +5
| $23
| $24 | $20 |
| 4 | James Shields | $18 | $23
| -5
| $24
| $18
| $25
|
| 5 | Zack Greinke
| $44 | $21 | +23
| $24 | $15 | $22 |
| 6 | Felix Hernandez
| $40 | $21
| +20
| $17
| $20
| $17 |
| 7 | Francisco Liriano
| $1 | $20 | -19
| $24 | $22 | $6 |
| 8 | John Lackey | $18 | $20 | -1
| $18 | $21 | $18 |
| 9 | Scott Kazmir | $9 | $20 | -11
| $18
| $16
| $20
|
| 10 | A.J. Burnett
| $19 | $19 | 0 | $16 | $12 | $23 |
| Average
| $25 | $23 | +2
| $23 | $21 | $23 |
They blew the same group from 2008 away, earning a whopping $7 more per pitcher than their 2008 counterparts.
No, that's not quite correct. Last year's charts were using 4x4 values. Inserting 5x5 values instead, the 10 most expensive pitchers earned $20 per pitcher, not $18.
Nevertheless, this was much better place to put your money in 2009 than it was in 2008. There were six pitchers who cracked $30 in earnings in 2009, and four of the six made this list. That's fairly predictable. There were really only two big busts (Kazmir and Liriano). While you obviously would rather have had Greinke or Felix than Lackey or Burnett, breaking even on a $19 or $20 pitcher in Roto isn't a bad deal at all.
After squeezing the top hitters, Patton takes a different approach here and goes after the top pitchers with gusto. In a three-way battle with the market and Sports Weekly, he gets Sabathia, Halladay, Shields, Greinke and Liriano. The market gets Felix, Kazmir, and Burnett, while SW takes home Beckett and Lackey.
While the top pitchers were fairly predictable, the 10 most expensive pitchers only had five pitchers make the next list.
Top Ten A.L. Starting Pitchers 2009
#
| Player | $ | Sal
| +/-
| AP
| SW
| '08
|
| 1 | Zack Greinke | $44 | $21 | +23
| $24 | $15 | $22 |
| 2 | Felix Hernandez
| $40 | $21 | +20
| $17 | $20
| $17 |
| 3 | Roy Halladay
| $37 | $28 | +9
| $33
| $30 | $40 |
| 4 | Justin Verlander
| $37 | $15
| +22
| $18
| $18
| $10
|
| 5 | CC Sabathia | $34 | $31 | +3 | $32 | $28 | $40 |
| 6 | Jon Lester
| $30
| $16
| +13
| $26
| $21
| $24
|
| 7 | Josh Beckett | $28 | $23 | +5 | $23 | $24 | $20 |
| 8 | Jered Weaver
| $25 | $14 | +11
| $12 | $12 | $15 |
| 9 | Edwin Jackson
| $23 | $4 | +19
| $4
|
| $7
|
| 10 | Scott Baker
| $22 | $16 | +6 | $11 | $13 | $21 |
| Average
| $32 | $19 | +13
| $20 | $18 | $22 |
Verlander, Lester, Weaver, Jackson and Baker join this group.
Just like in the N.L., though, this isn't a very surprising group at all. Jackson is the big surprise, but it cost at least $14 to take a ride with any of these other pitchers.
Obviously, the return here is tremendous. But $19 isn't a cheap price for what's typically an unpredictable commodity.
Top 10 A.L. Starting Pitchers 2008
(readjusted for 5x5 in 2008)
#
| Player | $ | Sal
| +/-
| AP
| SW
| '07
(4x4)
|
| 1 | Roy Halladay
| $40 | $21 | +19
| $29 | $22 | $23 |
| 2 | Cliff Lee
| $37 | $1 | +36
| $3 |
| -$7 |
| 3 | Ervin Santana
| $31 | $6 | +25
| $11
| $2 | -$9 |
| 4 | Mike Mussina
| $26 | $4
| +22
| $6
| $3
| $1
|
| 5 | James Shields
| $25 | $21 | +4
| $17 | $13 | $24 |
| 6 | Daisuke Matsuzaka
| $24 | $23
| 0
| $21
| $18
| $13 |
| 7 | Jon Lester | $24 | $7 | +17 | $9 | $5 | $1 |
| 8 | Justin Duchscherer | $23 | $6 | +18 | $3 | $1 | $1 |
| 9 | A.J. Burnett
| $23
| $16
| +7
| $17
| $16
| $18
|
| 10 | Zack Greinke
| $22 | $11
| +11
| $11
| $7
| $11 |
| Average
| $28 | $12 | +16
| $13 | $9 | $8 |
This is last year's Top 10 with 5x5 values instead of 4x4. The list changes from what I had posted last year. Here, you can see the impact of 5x5 on high quality, low strikeout pitchers. Mussina lost $2 in 5x5. Duchscherer lost $5 in the 5x5 format and Joe Saunders disappears from the Top 10 entirely.
But even with the adjusted Top 10, there are a lot of surprises here. Half the pitchers in 2008 cost $7 or less; the point I made about buying your staff on the cheap in '08 still applied. You didn't even need every one of these pitchers; you could have got lucky/struck gold with Lester and Duchscherer and turned a tidy profit.
You would have had a harder time doing that in 2009. Spending $45 on Verlander, Lester, and Weaver obviously would have bought you a golden ticket. However, there were a lot of pitchers in the $13-17 range who didn't pan out. In my next post, I'll look at these pitchers and see how they did compared to the most expensive ones.
Last time, I focused on the 10 best and 10 most expensive pitchers in the National League. Today, I'll look at the rest.Next Ten (11-20) Most Expensive N.L. Starting Pitchers 2009
#
| Player | $ | Sal
| +/-
| AP
| SW
| '08
|
| 11 | Ricky Nolasco
| $14 | $19 | -5
| $19 | $15 | $28 |
12
| Rich Harden
| $13 | $19 | -6
| $16 | $12
| $29 |
13
| Derek Lowe
| $5 | $19 | -13
| $18
| $12 | $26 |
| 14 | Edinson Volquez
| $4 | $19
| -15
| $20
| $14
| $25
|
15
| Adam Wainwright
| $32 | $18 | +14
| $15 | $16 | $17 |
16
| Brett Myers
| $3 | $17
| -15
| $11
| $7
| $11 |
17
| Josh Johnson
| $26 | $17 | +9
| $17 | $13 | $9 |
18
| Matt Cain
| $26 | $17 | +9
| $14 | $18 | $16 |
19
| Carlos Zambrano
| $12 | $16 | -3
| $17
| $19
| $17
|
20
| Aaron Harang
| $8 | $16 | -8 | $14 | $11 | $6 |
| Average
| $14 | $18 | -3
| $16 | $14 | $18 |
The market is still way ahead on these pitchers - and even more so than they were on the Cadillacs. Patton grabs Volquez and ties the market on Nolasco and Johnson, while Sports Weekly grabs Cain and Zambrano. The market gets the other five pitchers here outright.
Which group of pitchers do you like better: the 10 most expensive (from my last post) or this group?
The 10 most expensive earn more per pitcher, but this group returns a little bit more on the dollar than the Top 10. There are some bigger duds here, but you have almost as good a chance of landing a Top 10 starter here as you did in the top group.
Next Ten (21-30) Most Expensive N.L. Starting Pitchers 2009
#
| Player | $ | Sal
| +/-
| AP
| SW
| '08
|
| 21 | Ted Lilly | $25 | $15 | +9
| $16 | $15 | $22 |
| 22 | Ryan Dempster
| $17 | $15 | +2
| $20 | $15
| $29 |
| 23 | Chris Young
| $1 | $14 | -13
| $14
| $15 | $10 |
24
| Max Scherzer
| $13 | $13
| -0
| $16
| $12
| $6
|
25
| Clayton Kershaw
| $21 | $12 | +9
| $15 | $9 | $5 |
| 26 | Johnny Cueto
| $10 | $11
| -1
| $9
| $12
| $9 |
27
| Randy Johnson
| $6 | $11 | -5
| $10 | $10 | $19 |
28
| Jair Jurrjens
| $26 | $11 | +15
| $11 | $8 | $16 |
29
| Oliver Perez
| -$6 | $10 | -17
| $7
| $8
| $13
|
30
| Hiroki Kuroda
| $13 | $9 | +3 | $9 | $10 | $16
|
| Average
| $13 | $12 | 0
| $13 | $11 | $15 |
And these guys manage to turn a tiny profit; something not a single group of 10 N.L. starting pitchers could do in 2008.
This is an especially impressive achievement when you factor in Young and Perez's losses. This group manages to earn almost as much as the 11-20 bracket for $6 less per pitcher.
Patton is all over these guys. He outpaces the market and Sports Weekly on average. Pitcher for pitcher, he grabs Lilly, Dempster, Scherzer and Kershaw and ties the market on Jurrjens. Sports Weekly gets Young, Cueto and Kuroda. The market can only manage to grab Johnson and Perez outright.
We're finally seeing the market running out of money...and in a place where having a little extra cash to make your preferences known wouldn't be such a bad thing.
Next Ten (31-40) Most Expensive N.L. Starting Pitchers 2009
#
| Player | $ | Sal
| +/-
| AP
| SW
| '08
|
31
| Wandy Rodriguez
| $25 | $9 | +16
| $8 | $5 | $15 |
32
| Ubaldo Jimenez
| $24 | $9 | +15
| $11 | $6
| $14 |
| 33 | Mike Pelfrey
| $1 | $9 | -8
| $11
| $7 | $14 |
| 34 | John Maine
| $6 | $8
| -2
| $12
| $8
| $12
|
35
| Paul Maholm
| $5 | $8 | -3
| $7 | $2 | $16 |
36
| Chris Carpenter
| $33 | $8
| +25
| $11
| $11
| $2 |
37
| Ian Snell
| -$3 | $8 | -10
| $5 | $3 | -$4 |
38
| Kenshin Kawakami
| $9 | $7 | +3
| $3 | $5 |
|
39
| Manny Parra
| -$7 | $6 | -13
| $7
| $5
| $8
|
40
| Tommy Hanson
| $18 | $6 | +12 | R1
| $2 |
|
| Average
| $11 | $8 | +4
| $8 | $5 | $8 |
This group not only turns a profit, but a relatively strong one given the modest $8 investment. This seems like a bloc of haves and have nots; Rodriguez, Jimenez, and Carpenter really make these guys stand out.
Still, this is a testament to how waiting and picking your spots last year on the hill might have worked. What's striking is that SW clearly is going to leave money on the table. They're $3 short per pitcher here and would only wind up with their share of Carpenter. They underspent on the pitchers and the hitters. For the second year in a row, if you walked into an auction with their values and their values alone, you were probably crying in your beer after your auction.
I'm amazed at how last year every group of starting pitchers lost money and this year we're seeing profits. Can that hold?
Next Ten (41-50) Most Expensive N.L. Starting Pitchers 2009
#
| Player | $ | Sal
| +/-
| AP
| SW
| '08
|
41
| Jonathan Sanchez
| $11 | $6 | +6
| $6 | $4 | $7 |
42
| Chris Volstad
| $3 | $6 | -3
| $7 | $4
| $9 |
43
| Randy Wolf
| $24 | $5 | +19
| $5
| $1 | $13 |
44
| Bronson Arroyo
| $17 | $5
| +12
| $11
| $6
| $11
|
45
| David Bush
| -$2 | $5 | -7
| $12 | $4
| $16 |
46
| Jon Garland
| $9 | $4
| +5
| $4
| $1
| $5 |
47
| Kyle Lohse
| $4 | $4 | 0
| $6 | $4 | $17 |
48
| Scott Olsen
| -$4 | $4 | -8
| $9 | $1 | $11 |
49
| Joe Blanton
| $15 | $4 | +11
| $6
| $8
| $6
|
50
| Aaron Cook
| $7
| $4 | +4 | $6 | $3
| $15 |
| Average
| $8 | $5 | +4
| $7 | $4 | $11 |
It sure can. There are some individual losers here, but on the whole this group was pretty solid. Getting $8 of earnings per pitcher this far down is a pretty damn good return on what's typically an unreliable investment.
Since Patton didn't spend a lot of money early, he can pick and choose down here near the bottom. He does wind up missing outright on most of the big winners here, though. He ties the market on Sanchez, Wolf, and Garland and gets Volstad, Arroyo, Bush, Lohse, Olson, and Cook. SW gets Blanton. The market does not get a single pitcher outright.
The thing that strikes me about this group of pitchers is that they earned $11 per pitcher and get their salaries slashed by over 50%. To a degree, the market was right; four of the six double-digit earners in 2008 failed to earn in double-digits again in 2009.
Next Ten (51-60) Most Expensive N.L. Starting Pitchers 2009
#
| Player | $ | Sal
| +/-
| AP
| SW
| '08
|
51
| Todd Wellemeyer
| -$6 | $3 | -10
| $9 | $6 | $19 |
52
| John Lannan
| $9 | $3 | +6
| $1 | $2
| $12 |
53
| Jordan Zimmerman
| $4 | $3 | +2
| R1
| $2
|
|
54
| Anibal Sanchez
| $4 | $2
| +1
| $3
| $3
| $0
|
55
| Pedro Martinez
| $5 | $2 | +3
| R2
| $10
| $0 |
56
| Andrew Miller
| -$0 | $2
| -2
| $1
| $1
| -$1 |
57
| Joel Pineiro
| $21 | $2 | +19
| $1 |
| $3 |
58
| J.A. Happ
| $19 | $2 | +17
| $1
| $1
| $2
|
59
| Micah Owings
| -$1 | $2 | -3
| $4
| $1
| $2
|
60
| Jamie Moyer
| $7
| $1 | +5 | $5 | $1
| $18 |
| Average
| $6 | $2 | +4
| $3 | $3 | $6 |
Finally, even Patton runs out of cash.
We're in the crapshoot here; these are the starters the market doesn't really want to touch but has to if they hope to make innings. With 117 pitching slots that need to be filled and 13 team leagues, these guys are fifth starters and - for a couple of teams- fourth starters. If you got Pineiro or Happ, bully for you, but every single column on this chart except for the earnings doesn't exactly indicate that anyone saw these guys coming.
Once again, though, these guys turn a profit.
Don't get too wrapped up in profitability. Each tier of pitchers earned less and less the cheaper and cheaper they got...and you do want stats as well as profits. However, if you're going to get profits at the bottom, it means that you don't have to chase the best pitchers as hard at the top as you normally might. Tim Lincecum is going to be tempting next year, but don't run too far past $40. There are going to be some stats to buy down at the middle and the bottom if you miss out on the studs at the top.
