Entering 2011, it seemed that the American League was going to have one of the weakest crops of pitchers in recent memory.
Ten Most Expensive A.L. Pitchers 2011
| # | Name | $ | SAL | +/- | CBS | LABR | TW | PK | 2010 |
| 1 | $23 | 31 | -8 | 35 | 30 | 29 | 34 | $35 | |
| 2 | $20 | 27 | -7 | 29 | 27 | 25 | 29 | $26 | |
| | $29 | 27 | 2 | 29 | 26 | 26 | 30 | $28 | |
| 4 | $46 | 24 | 22 | 26 | 21 | 25 | 26 | $26 | |
| 5 | $23 | 23 | 0 | 23 | 22 | 24 | 21 | $20 | |
| 6 | $13 | 23 | -10 | 23 | 22 | 24 | 24 | $22 | |
| 7 | $31 | 23 | 8 | 25 | 23 | 20 | 25 | $17 | |
| 8 | $36 | 23 | 14 | 25 | 21 | 22 | 27 | $29 | |
| 9 | $16 | 22 | -6 | 23 | 21 | 22 | 24 | $23 | |
| 10 | $24 | 21 | 3 | 23 | 20 | 21 | 27 | $28 | |
| | Average | $26 | 24 | 2 | 26 | 23 | 24 | 27 | $25 |
With Cliff Lee and Zack Greinke moseying on over to the National League, the highest average salaries for the top American League pitchers dropped for the second year in a row. Happily for the market, this is the most successful the best pitchers have been since I started using 5x5 exclusively in 2009.
It can't be explained away by the formulas I use to derive pitcher earnings. Verlander earned $46.16 last year; the same numbers plugged into the 2010 formulas would have been worth $45.46. Sometimes, the vagaries of the formulas from year to year inflate or deflate what a pitcher earns. Last year, the best pitchers were simply better.
Top 10 A.L. Pitchers 2011
| # | Name | $ | SAL | +/- | CBS | LABR | TW | PK | 2010 |
| 1 | Justin Verlander | $46 | 24 | 22 | 26 | 21 | 25 | 26 | $26 |
| 2 | Jered Weaver | $36 | 23 | 14 | 25 | 21 | 22 | 27 | $29 |
| 3 | $34 | 12 | 22 | 9 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 5 | |
| 4 | Dan Haren | $31 | 23 | 8 | 25 | 23 | 20 | 25 | $17 |
| 5 | CC Sabathia | $29 | 27 | 2 | 29 | 26 | 26 | 30 | $28 |
| 6 | $27 | 16 | 11 | 17 | 15 | 17 | 14 | -2 | |
| 7 | $27 | 11 | 16 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 20 | |
| 8 | $27 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 17 | |
| 9 | $25 | 1 | 24 | 1 | 1 | 1 | | 7 | |
| 10 | David Price | $24 | 21 | 3 | 23 | 20 | 21 | 27 | $28 |
| | Average | $31 | 17 | 13 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 19 | $18 |
Price and Clay Buchholz - the 10th best A.L. pitcher in 2010 - both earned $24. But where four pitchers earned $30+ in 2011 only one - Hernandez - earned $30 or more in 2010. Despite the fact that the context more or less remained the same, the best pitchers in the A.L. were simply better last year.
Understandably, the market downgraded these guys somewhat. CBS kept the expert leagues somewhat honest, while Rotoman was way ahead of the pack. Of the 15 pitchers between the two charts above:
CBS: Hernandez, Lester (tie), Verlander (tie), Haren (tie), Beckett (tie), Wilson (tie), Romero, Fister (tie).
LABR: Shields (tie), Wilson (tie), Fister (tie).
Tout Wars: Rivera, Soria (tie), Shields (tie), Beckett (tie), Fister (tie)
Rotoman: Lester (tie), Sabathia, Verlander (tie), Soria (tie), Haren (tie), Weaver, Feliz, Price.
Rotoman's aggressive pricing at the beginning doesn't take him out of the running for the bargain bin later. He misses out on every one of the best pitchers who isn't also represented on the most expensive list, but rallies in the next chart.
Top 10 Profits, A.L. Pitchers 2011
| # | Name | $ | SAL | +/- | CBS | LABR | TW | PK | 2010 |
| 1 | Doug Fister | $25 | 1 | 24 | 1 | 1 | 1 | | $7 |
| 2 | Justin Verlander | $46 | 24 | 22 | 26 | 21 | 25 | 26 | $26 |
| 3 | James Shields | $34 | 12 | 22 | 9 | 14 | 14 | 12 | $5 |
| 4 | $17 | 1 | 16 | | 2 | 2 | 4 | | |
| 5 | C.J. Wilson | $27 | 11 | 16 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 11 | $20 |
| 6 | $17 | 2 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 11 | $2 | |
| 7 | $18 | 4 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 4 | $8 | |
| 8 | $14 | 0 | 14 | 1 | | | 1 | $4 | |
| 9 | Jered Weaver | $36 | 23 | 14 | 25 | 21 | 22 | 27 | $29 |
| 10 | $18 | 4 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | $1 | |
| | Average | $25 | 8 | 17 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | $10 |
It sure helps Rotoman that half of the pitchers here were also among the best in the A.L. last year. But he's also out in front on McCarthy, Ogando and Walden. He ties the CBS on Tomlin and only loses out on Masterson (LABR).
The feast-or-famine nature of the chart above is nothing new. Typically, it is dominated by guys who were paid $5 or less. What changes year in and year out are whether or not big money earners crack the chart. And there's two reasons that can happen: the big money earners are true studs, or the average pitcher auctioned in the American League stinks on ice, making the best pitchers worth more.
A.L. League Average Auctioned ERA/WHIP 2009-2011
2009: 4.23 ERA, 1.360 WHIP
2010: 3.97 ERA, 1.295 WHIP
2011: 3.94 ERA, 1.276 WHIP
In 2009, Zack Greinke and Hernandez narrowly missed the Top 10 in salary but the mediocre composition of the A.L. that year pushed up their earnings. In 2010, while Felix was very good, he couldn't make it to $40 and, in fact, was the only pitcher even to make it past $30 (as noted above). In 2011, the average pitcher purchased in auction was extremely similar to the average pitcher purchased in 2010, but the best pitchers were simply better.
How much better?
Eight A.L. qualifiers had sub 3.00 ERAs, while eight A.L. qualifiers had a sub 1.1 WHIP (this was not necessarily mutually exclusive). The last time eight A.L. pitchers had a sub-3 ERA in a non-strike year was in 1978. The last time eight A.L. qualifiers had a sub 3 ERA and a sub 1.1. WHIP was in 1972.
The A.L. average ERA in 2011 was 4.08. In 1972, that average ERA was a 3.06. There was no Rotisserie League Baseball in 1972, but even with his 342 2/3 (!) innings, 24 wins, 1.92 ERA, and 0.978 WHIP, a rough translation of Gaylord Perry's 1972 season would have been worth the same $46 that year that Verlander's 2011 was worth last year.
Perry only gets robbed in the context of 1972 because guys like this weren't bringing up the rear.
Top 10 Losses, A.L. Pitchers 2011
| # | Name | $ | SAL | +/- | CBS | LABR | TW | PK | 2010 |
| 1 | -$13 | 13 | -26 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | $9 | |
| 2 | -$6 | 13 | -18 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 9 | $9 | |
| 3 | $2 | 20 | -18 | 23 | 18 | 19 | 21 | $19 | |
| 4 | -$1 | 14 | -15 | 16 | 13 | 12 | 14 | $16 | |
| 5 | $5 | 18 | -13 | 20 | 17 | 18 | 16 | $13 | |
| 6 | $4 | 16 | -12 | 18 | 16 | 14 | 14 | $12 | |
| 7 | -$4 | 7 | -10 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 3 | $10 | |
| 8 | Joakim Soria | $13 | 23 | -10 | 23 | 22 | 24 | 24 | $22 |
| 9 | -$2 | 7 | -10 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 6 | $11 | |
| 10 | -$6 | 4 | -10 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 5 | $0 | |
| | Average | -$1 | $13 | -$14 | $15 | $13 | $13 | $13 | $12 |
More reason to spend big bucks on pitchers; Soria's the only one of the most expensive pitchers to land here.
In some years, Rotoman simply spent the most on all of the pitchers, thus discounting some of his strengths. But this year, his 5x5 bid prices kicked ass. He only tied Tout Wars on Drabek and Soria and everybody on Matusz. CBS gets Liriano, Thornton, Hughes and Anderson, ties TW on Lackey and LABR on Slowey and Pineiro.
It's hard to predict whether or not the best pitchers will stay so far ahead of the pack. But 1972 isn't returning any time soon. The volatility at the bottom of the pack will remain. Paying big bucks for premium pitchers - regardless of what the bottom looks like - will likely remain a solid proposition in 2012.
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