Bargains and Busts: 2011 N.L. Hitters

Different leagues, different dynamics.

Ten Most Expensive N.L. Hitters 2011

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	CBS	LABR	TW	PK	2010
1	Hanley Ramirez	$16	44	-28	49	41	42	41	$33
2	Albert Pujols	$35	44	-8	49	40	42	44	$40
3	Troy Tulowitzki	$32	40	-8	48	35	37	36	$31
	Joey Votto	$34	40	-6	45	39	36	36	$40
5	Ryan Braun	$47	39	8	45	37	36	38	$33
6	Carlos Gonzalez	$33	39	-6	44	37	36	38	$45
7	David Wright	$17	34	-17	37	32	34	33	$31
8	Matt Kemp	$53	34	19	32	35	34	32	$24
9	Prince Fielder	$34	33	1	35	31	34	30	$22
10	Matt Holliday	$24	33	-9	37	30	32	29	$32
	Average	$33	38	-6	42	36	36	36	$33

In the American League, the best hitters cost less but also earn significantly less than their N.L. counterparts. The $28 per player the N.L. crowd earned in 2010 is still better than what the most expensive A.L. hitters earned in any year from 2009-2011. Are the National League hitters really that much better?

They're better...but they're not that much better. Put these 10 hitters into the A.L. context and they earn $30 per player, not $33. In other words, while Kemp is still better than Jacoby Ellsbury, he's not $7 better. Across the board, the average A.L. hitter and the average N.L. hitter are not that different, but when applied to each individual hitter the differences can be stark.

I'd like to say that all of the experts get this, but while the CBS and LABR expert leagues more or less spend the same amount per player on the (projected) best players, it's Tout Wars and Rotoman that really get the idea that the two Major Leagues aren't created equally. While only two hitters have had $40+ seasons in the A.L. since 2009, eight have pulled the feat in N.L.-only leagues during that time.

So while the experts might be overpaying in both leagues, the N.L. experts are somewhat more justified in overpaying based on prior earnings. And they're even more justified based on the following:

Top 10 N.L. Hitters 2011

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	CBS	LABR	TW	PK	2010
1	Matt Kemp	$53	34	19	32	35	34	32	$24
2	Ryan Braun	$47	39	8	45	37	36	38	$33
3	Michael Bourn	$36	21	15	20	23	21	20	$26
4	Jose Reyes	$36	30	6	32	29	29	29	$25
5	Albert Pujols	$35	44	-8	49	40	42	44	$40
6	Justin Upton	$35	30	5	29	29	31	29	$22
7	Joey Votto	$34	40	-6	45	39	36	36	$40
8	Prince Fielder	$34	33	1	35	31	34	30	$22
9	Carlos Gonzalez	$33	39	-6	44	37	36	38	$45
10	Troy Tulowitzki	$32	40	-8	48	35	37	36	$31
	Average	$38	35	3	38	34	34	33	$31

There is far more duplication on the best/most expensive hitter lists in the N.L. than there is in the A.L.: not only in 2011, but every year for the last three years.

# of hitters on Top 10/Most Expensive Charts: 2009-2001

	A.L.	N.L.
2009	3	7
2010	2	5
2011	3	6

If you had a crystal ball and knew that you had a 50-50 chance of spending big money in the National League and getting a top 10 earner, you'd probably be willing to spend. If, on the other hand, you only had a 30% chance of getting a top 10 earner - like in the A.L. -  you might hold back.

Even the precarious limb that the CBS is constantly climbing on can be viewed somewhat positively within this context. Of the 13 players listed above, they were ahead of the other expert leagues and Rotoman on every player except Bourn, Kemp, and Upton. While missing out on Kemp should dampen your enthusiasm for spending the way CBS spends, the biggest difference between the N.L. and the A.L. is that while it might be impossible for a player to earn over $45 in the American League (based on recent history), it happened twice last year in the National League. I'm not saying I like CBS's prices better (in fact, they're my least favorite in these charts), but actual performance leaves these players closer to CBS's lofty expectations than you might otherwise expect.

As usual, big earnings on the big ticket items leave lots of cheapies here.

Top 10 N.L. Profits 2011

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	CBS	LABR	TW	PK	2010
1	Emilio Bonifacio	$28	1	27	3			3	$7
2	Michael Morse	$29	9	19	4	10	14	12	$12
3	Matt Kemp	$53	34	19	32	35	34	32	$24
4	Lance Berkman	$29	12	17	11	12	14	14	$11
5	Gerardo Parra	$19	3	15	2	5	3	6	$5
6	Michael Bourn	$36	21	15	20	23	21	20	$26
7	Daniel Murphy	$17	2	15		4	2	2
8	John Mayberry Jr.	$15	0	14			1	R3	$2
9	John Jay	$16	2	14	1	3	2	5	$10
10	Todd Helton	$19	5	14	2	5	8	5	$8
	Average	$26	9	17	8	10	10	10	$11

Half of the players here fall into the crapshoot (players purchased for $3 or less). Since CBS was spending so much earlier, it's logical that they're almost shutout here; they can only tie Rotoman on Bonifacio. The other expert leagues and Rotoman split on these surprises. LABR is out in front on Kemp, Bourn and Murphy. Tout Wars wins Helton, Mayberry, Morse and ties Rotoman on Berkman. Rotoman wins Jay and Parra outright.

For the second year in a row, a big ticket item really makes an impact here. Kemp had even more of an impact than Carlos Gonzalez did on this same list in 2010. For the most part, though, the opportunities here came on the guys way at the bottom of the list.

The "best players were even better last year" narrative continues below.

Top 10 N.L. Losses 2011

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	CBS	LABR	TW	PK	2010
1	Hanley Ramirez	$16	44	-28	49	41	42	41	$33
2	Pedro Alvarez	$0	23	-22	29	20	19	18	$12
3	Buster Posey	$6	25	-19	29	24	22	23	$19
4	David Wright	$17	34	-17	37	32	34	33	$31
5	Ryan Zimmerman	$15	31	-16	34	30	30	31	$26
6	Adam LaRoche	$0	16	-16	10	19	19	18	$20
7	Ian Stewart	($1)	15	-16	14	15	15	14	$14
8	Jayson Heyward	$11	26	-15	28	25	26	26	22
9	Stephen Drew	$9	24	-14	24	21	26	20	$20
10	Ike Davis	7	20	-13	22	16	21	16	$17
	Average	$8	26	-18	28	24	25	24	$21

This is the cheapest the "worst" players have been since 2008. Since only Hanley and Wright repeat both here and on the most expensive list, this makes some sense. But the list on the whole is "cheaper." Zimmerman is the only other $30+ salary hitter on the list; 2009 and 2010 saw five $30+ hitters land on the busts list.

Just like in the A.L., the danger zone seems to be in the $20 range. Hooray for you if you bought Bourn and managed to wander into the danger zone and win. But the plurality of flameouts in the N.L. were in the $20-29 range...just like in the A.L.

N.L. Hitter Average Salary by Bracket

Range	Players	$	SAL	+/-
$30+	15	$31	$36	-5
$20-29	32	$19	$23	-4
$10-19	50	$13	$13	0
$0-9	104	$6	$3	3

The difference here is that while the $10-19 and $20-29 players both lost $2 per player in the A.L., here the $10-19 players broke even. If you had been playing Stars and Scrubs, it would have paid to stay out of the $20s for your second tier players and buy one or two more $10-19 players...as a general proposition. LaRoche and Stewart's owners might want to have a word with you about how that general proposition worked on a case by case basis.

I suspect that this year the urge might be to push the prices on the best N.L. hitters down. With Pujols out of the N.L. and Fielder possibly leaving, the initial reaction is going to be that the stars at the top aren’t as good. However, the average player in the league will be worse – not better – as a result. In other words, if Kemp does the same exact thing in 2012 (he won’t), then those stats he puts up will be worth more – and not less – than they were in 2011….once again, assuming all things remain equal with the average hitter.