Ten Most Expensive 2011 A.L. Hitters
# | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | CBS | LABR | TW | PK | 2010 |
1 | Carl Crawford | $16 | 40 | -24 | 41 | 40 | 38 | 41 | $40 |
2 | Miguel Cabrera | $36 | 39 | -4 | 48 | 35 | 35 | 38 | $38 |
3 | Robinson Cano | $32 | 38 | -6 | 49 | 35 | 30 | 30 | $33 |
Evan Longoria | $20 | 38 | -18 | 44 | 37 | 33 | 24 | $30 | |
5 | Adrian Gonzalez | $36 | 36 | -1 | 42 | 34 | 33 | 36 | $27 |
6 | Alex Rodriguez | $16 | 35 | -18 | 34 | 37 | 33 | 31 | $25 |
Mark Teixeira | $24 | 35 | -11 | 38 | 36 | 30 | 31 | $25 | |
8 | Nelson Cruz | $21 | 34 | -12 | 40 | 29 | 32 | 31 | $27 |
9 | Josh Hamilton | $26 | 32 | -6 | 38 | 30 | 29 | 30 | $38 |
Kevin Youkilis | $16 | 32 | -17 | 35 | 33 | 30 | 30 | $21 | |
Average | $24 | 36 | -12 | 41 | 35 | 32 | 32 | $30 |
For three years running, the most expensive hitters in the American League have cost $35 or $36 and have earned $24 to $25. That's reliable...though I'm sure it's not the kind of reliability their owners were counting on.
No wonder Tout Wars is so conservative. I comment every year that the Tout Warriors play it way too close to the vest with the most expensive players and that they don't spend enough money and blah, blah, blabbity blah. But can you blame them? Ever Tout Wars' conservative approach gives this group of players a $2 per player raise last year. So if Tout Wars is giving everyone a raise, does that mean that CBS and LABR are out of line?
CBS is. LABR is not.
The market isn't betting against last year, but rather trying to guess who to 10 best players are going to be this year. Last year, the 10 best hitters in the American League earned $34 per player. So - even you don't agree on LABR's individual bids on these players, the logic behind bidding $35 per player is generally sound (LABR's own Top 10 bids - without the averages - swaps out Nelson Cruz for Jacoby Ellsbury, giving LABR $27 of earnings for $35 of salary. Still a loss, but much, much better.).
CBS, though, is out to lunch.
Crawford was the only A.L. hitter to earn $40 in 2010, but CBS decided to hand out six $40+ bids in 2011! Robinson Cano's $49 bid and Miguel Cabrera's $48 price tags seem especially ludicrous; without a ton of steals, no hitter is going to come close to earning that in 5x5.
Cabrera had a tremendous season last year and "only" earned $36. He's emblematic of the problem CBS has: they're doling our salaries that players can't possibly earn. If Cabrera had matched the league leaders/highest earners in every category except for steals he would have put up a 43 HR, 119 RBI, 136 R, .338 BA in 630 AB...and would have earned $42. Give him the nine steals that match his career high, and Cabrera would have been a $44 player. A historically great season by Cabrera would have put him into losing territory.
If you're overspending for hitters, you at least want to make sure you're overspending for the right ones:
Top 10 2011 A.L. Hitters
Player | $ | Sal | +/- | CBS | LABR | TW | PK | 2010 | |
1 | Jacoby Ellsbury | $45 | 29 | 16 | 28 | 30 | 29 | 30 | $2 |
2 | Curtis Granderson | $37 | 21 | 15 | 21 | 20 | 23 | 21 | $19 |
3 | Miguel Cabrera | $36 | 39 | -4 | 48 | 35 | 35 | 38 | $38 |
4 | Adrian Gonzalez | $36 | 36 | -1 | 42 | 34 | 33 | 36 | $27 |
5 | Jose Bautista | $34 | 29 | 5 | 32 | 29 | 27 | 27 | $34 |
6 | Dustin Pedroia | $34 | 30 | 4 | 35 | 26 | 28 | 27 | $15 |
7 | Robinson Cano | $32 | 38 | -6 | 49 | 35 | 30 | 30 | $33 |
8 | Melky Cabrera | $31 | 3 | 28 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 6 | $9 |
9 | Alex Gordon | $31 | 9 | 22 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 10 | $3 |
10 | Michael Young | $30 | 18 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 20 | 19 | $24 |
Average | $35 | 25 | 9 | 27 | 24 | 24 | 24 | $20 |
There is only overlap on three players from the best/most expensive list: Cabrera, Cano, and Gonzalez. But since Bautista, Ellsbury and Pedroia just miss, this is still an expensive group...and still a group where CBS dominates the spending. They have the highest bids on Cabrera, Gonzalez, Bautista, Pedroia, and Cano. Tout Wars is first on Granderson, Gordon, and Young, while LABR and Rotoman are left with Ellsbury and Melky.
Unlike in years prior, this list is rife with speculation (a $5 per player raise from 2010). Bautista, Melky, and Young are the only three players that don't get raises. This is somewhat unusual, though Ellsbury and Pedroia were both bounce back/injury candidates who actually bounced back.
Even though CBS "won" more players here, this chart reinforces the idea that CBS spent its money badly. When it came time to speculate, the money for guys like Melky and Gordon was gone. If you were patient and waited for these guys to come your way, you probably cleaned up in a league like this.
Top 10 Profits, 2011 A.L. Hitters
# | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | CBS | LABR | TW | PK | 2010 |
1 | Melky Cabrera | 31 | 4 | 27 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 6 | $9 |
2 | Jeff Francoeur | 27 | 5 | 22 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 8 | $12 |
3 | Alex Gordon | 31 | 9 | 22 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 10 | $3 |
4 | Eric Hosmer | 23 | 1 | 21 | 4 | R2 | |||
5 | Mark Trumbo | 20 | 2 | 19 | 1 | 4 | 3 | $0 | |
6 | Alex Avila | 20 | 4 | 17 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 4 | $4 |
7 | Jacoby Ellsbury | 45 | 29 | 16 | 28 | 30 | 29 | 30 | $2 |
8 | Brennan Boesch | 17 | 1 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | $14 |
9 | Curtis Granderson | 37 | 21 | 15 | 21 | 20 | 23 | 21 | $19 |
10 | Casey Kotchman | 15 | 1 | 15 | 1 | 1 | R3 | $4 | |
Average | $27 | 8 | 19 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 9 | $7 |
Yet - unlike in years past - there were many more endgame guys to be had for the taking. Half of the hitters on this list fell into the "crapshoot" (hitters purchased for $3 or less), with Avila and Frenchy barely missing the cut. What's missing here are the men in the middle; there's a huge gap between Gordon's $9 and Granderson's $21 average salaries; this is the first time ever that a single player purchased between $10-19 failed to make this list.
In a weird way, does this list offers some odd vindication to CBS's approach? If Kotchman, Boesch and Hosmer are just sitting there for the taking in the endgame in expert leagues, isn't this all just guesswork? Shouldn't we spend more money on the best players, particularly if there are no +15 players in the $10-19 range?
No. If anyone's approach is vindicated, it is LABR's. Spending $35 on the 10 best expected hitters because you don't want to push the prices in the middle too high is OK. Spending $41 is not.
Besides, it's not as if the $10-19 hitters were all dogs.
Top 10 Losses 2011 A.L. Hitters
# | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | CBS | LABR | TW | PK | 2010 |
1 | Adam Dunn | -$2 | 31 | -33 | 34 | 28 | 30 | 24 | $24 |
2 | Carl Crawford | $16 | 40 | -24 | 41 | 40 | 38 | 41 | $40 |
3 | Kendry Morales | 22 | -22 | 30 | 18 | 17 | 20 | $9 | |
4 | Shin-Soo Choo | $11 | 31 | -20 | 34 | 28 | 30 | 30 | $30 |
5 | Alex Rodriguez | $16 | 35 | -18 | 34 | 37 | 33 | 31 | $25 |
6 | Justin Morneau | $2 | 21 | -18 | 26 | 16 | 20 | 20 | $19 |
7 | Evan Longoria | $20 | 38 | -18 | 44 | 37 | 33 | 24 | $30 |
8 | Alex Rios | $10 | 28 | -18 | 31 | 27 | 26 | 29 | $32 |
9 | Joe Mauer | $8 | 25 | -18 | 31 | 22 | 23 | 25 | $23 |
10 | Chone Figgins | $1 | 18 | -17 | 18 | 17 | 19 | 18 | $19 |
Average | $8 | 29 | -21 | 32 | 27 | 27 | 26 | $25 |
Figgins is the only hitter who cost between $10-19 to show up on this list. Nine of the 10 busts cost $21 or more. Part of that, though, is Figgins' $17 loss is the highest loss for the 10th hitter on this chart since I started tracking this. Pedroia lost $14 in 2010, Vladimir Guerrero lost $14 in 2009, and Paul Konerko lost $13 in 2008. The overall $21 average loss is the worst loss I've seen.
This could just be one of those things, though. Perhaps the $10-19 hitters spread their losses out more evenly?
A.L. 2011 Hitter Average Earnings/Salary by Bracket
Range | Players | $ | SAL | +/- |
$30+ | 13 | $22 | $35 | -13 |
$20-29 | 26 | $22 | $24 | -2 |
$10-19 | 59 | $12 | $14 | -2 |
$0-9 | 87 | $7 | $3 | 3 |
The hitters in the $21-29 loss chart are the anomalies. But there is no doubt that this past season was a bad year for the "stars" in a Stars and Scrubs strategy. Tout Wars' conservative spending model was probably the way to go in the American League in 2011.
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