After a few years of pussyfooting around the issue, N.L. owners finally did it.
Ten Most Expensive N.L. Pitchers 2011
| # | Name | $ | SAL | +/- | CBS | LABR | TW | PK | 2010 |
| 1 | $34 | 31 | 2 | 32 | 30 | 32 | 34 | $38 | |
| 2 | $23 | 28 | -6 | 30 | 27 | 28 | 31 | $22 | |
| 3 | $33 | 26 | 7 | 29 | 23 | 26 | 29 | $27 | |
| 4 | $38 | 24 | 14 | 25 | 25 | 23 | 25 | $24 | |
| | $18 | 24 | -6 | 26 | 28 | 19 | 20 | $14 | |
| 6 | $28 | 23 | 6 | 25 | 21 | 22 | 24 | $23 | |
| 7 | $10 | 22 | -12 | 25 | 20 | 22 | 27 | $26 | |
| 8 | $14 | 22 | -8 | 20 | 24 | 22 | 21 | $19 | |
| | $16 | 22 | -6 | 25 | 22 | 19 | 17 | $25 | |
| 10 | $20 | 22 | -2 | 21 | 21 | 23 | 19 | $15 | |
| | Average | $23 | 25 | -1 | 26 | 24 | 24 | 25 | $23 |
They had come close in the past, but 2011 was the first time that the 10 most expensive pitchers in the National League were all starting pitchers (You can read my recap of these pitchers here).
As I documented when I wrote about the N.L. starting pitchers, this is a reliable group. Getting back a $23 return on pitchers you spent $25 on is solid. While it's true that six out of the 10 pitchers here lost money, you at least knew you were going to get double-digit earnings on a top flight starter...something you wouldn't have been guaranteed of in 2009 or 2010.
It figures that in a year when owners finally stopped spending money on closers that a few closers would finally earn big bucks.
Top 10 N.L. Pitchers 2011
| # | Name | $ | SAL | +/- | CBS | LABR | TW | PK | 2010 |
| 1 | Clayton Kershaw | $38 | 24 | 14 | 25 | 25 | 23 | 25 | $24 |
| 2 | Roy Halladay | $34 | 31 | 2 | 32 | 30 | 32 | 34 | $38 |
| 3 | Cliff Lee | $33 | 26 | 7 | 29 | 23 | 26 | 29 | $27 |
| 4 | $29 | 10 | 19 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 11 | $15 | |
| 5 | Cole Hamels | $28 | 23 | 6 | 25 | 21 | 22 | 24 | $23 |
| 6 | $26 | 11 | 15 | 12 | 14 | 8 | 6 | $6 | |
| 7 | $24 | 20 | 4 | 20 | 19 | 20 | 25 | $25 | |
| 8 | Tim Lincecum | $23 | 28 | -6 | 30 | 27 | 28 | 31 | $22 |
| 9 | $23 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 11 | 9 | $6 | |
| 10 | $22 | 15 | 7 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 15 | $17 | |
| | Average | $28 | 20 | 8 | 21 | 20 | 20 | 21 | $20 |
Kimbrel, Storen and Axford mark the first time since 2009 (the year I started using 5x5 values instead of 4x4) that three closers crack this list. Billy Wagner and Heath Bell made it in 2010, and Jonathan Broxton stood alone like the cheese in 2009. This year's batch of closers was cheaper than any of the 2009-10 options that cracked the Top 10. There's a reason N.L. owners don't spend big bucks on closers; the ones that cost the most never earn the most...as least in recent memory.
Five pitchers crack both of these lists. This is the best showing by far for the most expensive pitchers; only three appeared on both lists in 2009-2010. Rotoman was out in front on these guys in the A.L., but it is CBS that is slightly more aggressive here. However, despite being out in front on average salaries, they only outbid everyone on Hamels and Latos. LABR wins on Greinke, Hanson, Kimbrel and Storen. Tout Wars gets Gallardo and Rotoman grabs Halladay, Lincecum, Johnson and Cain. As is frequently the case, there are many, many ties.
Not only was there a lot of duplication, but this was the first year where you had to at least go to double-digits to get a big time earner. In the A.L., there were profits to be had in the crapshoot. Is this also true in the N.L?
Top 10 Profits, N.L. Pitchers 2011
| # | Name | $ | SAL | +/- | CBS | LABR | TW | PK | 2010 |
| 1 | Ian Kennedy | $29 | 10 | 19 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 11 | $15 |
| 2 | $19 | 0 | 18 | | 1 | | | $1 | |
| 3 | $16 | 1 | 15 | 1 | | 1 | | -$9 | |
| 4 | Craig Kimbrel | $26 | 11 | 15 | 12 | 14 | 8 | 6 | $6 |
| 5 | Clayton Kershaw | $38 | 24 | 14 | 25 | 25 | 23 | 25 | $24 |
| 6 | $15 | 1 | 14 | | 2 | 1 | 2 | $3 | |
| 7 | $16 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 | $14 | |
| 8 | $17 | 4 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | $11 | |
| 9 | $15 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3 | $1 | |
| 10 | $13 | 1 | 12 | | 2 | 1 | 2 | $12 | |
| | Average | $20 | 6 | 15 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 6 | $8 |
Seven of the 10 best bargains in the National League cost $4 or less. So, yes, you didn't have to spend big to win big.
But unlike in the A.L., the majority of pitchers on this list are relievers. Six of the top 10 bargains, in fact, were relievers. Things have been trending in this direction for the last two years. Two relievers made the bargain list in 2009 and four made it in 2010.
But these guys are cheap because they're volatile. The two bargain relievers in 2009 were Ryan Franklin and Rafael Soriano. In 2010, they were Hong-Chih Kuo, Tyler Clippard, Evan Meek, and Sean Marshall. Clippard and Marshall owners won in 2011; owners of these other four pitchers lost. We don't know which relievers are going to flame out in 2012, but we know that some will so we don't pay full sticker price for any of these arms.
The other side of this coin is that the bargain starting pitchers just aren't there. Mike Leake and Brandon Beachy were the only other N.L. starters not on the list above to turn a $10+ profit. Relievers who turned a $10+ profit who failed to make the cut above were Storen, Edward Mujica, Jason Motte, Rafael Betancourt, and David Hernandez. Overall, there were four starting pitchers and nine relievers who cost $4 or less who turned a $10+ profit. As I said earlier this winter, you can't win in 5x5 with three starters and six relievers, but you're far better off filling in your last one or two spots with a quality middle reliever as opposed to a shaky fifth starter.
Enough love for relief pitching. Not all of these guys helped us out last year.
Top 10 Losses, N.L. Pitchers 2011
| # | Name | $ | SAL | +/- | CBS | LABR | TW | PK | 2010 |
| 1 | Ryan Franklin | -$5 | 12 | -17 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 12 | $16 |
| 2 | $4 | 20 | -17 | 20 | 19 | 22 | 23 | $29 | |
| 3 | -$4 | 13 | -17 | 9 | 18 | 12 | 10 | $2 | |
| 4 | $5 | 18 | -13 | 15 | 19 | 20 | 19 | $16 | |
| 5 | Josh Johnson | $10 | 22 | -12 | 25 | 20 | 22 | 27 | $26 |
| 6 | $2 | 14 | -12 | 11 | 16 | 16 | 15 | $21 | |
| 7 | -$2 | 10 | -12 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | $13 | |
| 8 | Jonathan Broxton | $1 | 12 | -11 | 11 | 14 | 12 | 12 | $10 |
| 9 | $7 | 18 | -11 | 16 | 20 | 19 | 22 | $29 | |
| 10 | $2 | 12 | -11 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 8 | $12 | |
| | Average | $2 | 15 | -13 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 16 | $17 |
Four relievers crack the bust list...despite the falling prices for closers across the board. The problem with closers has never been more evident than it is with these guys. Lidge and Broxton return almost nothing in value and Franklin and Lyon return less than nothing. Even if you were one of the poor saps that bought Jimenez or Billingsley, at least you got something back for your investment.
No wonder people dump saves. One fourth of the anticipated N.L. closers were on this list last year. If you told me going into 2011 that I had a one in four chance of grabbing a big-time bust if I spent on a closer, I would have passed - even if it meant I might lose out on someone like Kimbrel.
Perhaps the story buried in all of this, though, is the relative predictability of starting pitching in 2011. Ricky Nolasco was the only other double-digit loser last year. This means that six starting pitchers turned a $10+ profit while seven lost $10 or more. Everyone else fell within the $0-9 range one way or the other.
We always expect that there are going to be a lot of crazy pitching seasons in one direction or the other. But this didn't happen last year. Missing from the losses list were the 2011 versions Aaron Harang, Lohse, or Charlie Morton in 2010: pitchers who went for single digits but still managed to lose big money for their owners. If you threw down a small time investment for a starting pitcher, the worst you did last year was Travis Wood ($8 salary, $0 earnings). This obviously isn't a love letter for Wood, but rather an observation that - at least last year - that the end game wasn't a place where you were going to get burned.
2 comments:
Hey Mike,
Thanks for your insightful posts. Just wanted to let you know--at least for me, the rss feed seems funky. The whole post gets truncated at a random spot, and I can't click the title to follow it to the actual post. They also seem to be coming out days behind: the most recent post in my rss reader (Google Reader) was the NL Hitters post.
Try adding ?alt=rss to the end of the URL.
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