Every year, the N.L. experts spend less and less on the top pitchers. Last year continued the trend.
Ten Most Expensive N.L. Starting Pitchers, 2011
| # | Name | $ | SAL | +/- | CBS | LABR | TW | PK | 2010 |
| 1 | $34 | 31 | 2 | 32 | 30 | 32 | 34 | $38 | |
| 2 | $23 | 28 | -6 | 30 | 27 | 28 | 31 | $22 | |
| 3 | $33 | 26 | 7 | 29 | 23 | 26 | 29 | $27 | |
| 4 | $38 | 24 | 14 | 25 | 25 | 23 | 25 | $24 | |
| 5 | $18 | 24 | -6 | 26 | 28 | 19 | 20 | $14 | |
| 6 | $28 | 23 | 6 | 25 | 21 | 22 | 24 | $23 | |
| 7 | $10 | 22 | -12 | 25 | 20 | 22 | 27 | $26 | |
| 8 | $16 | 22 | -6 | 25 | 22 | 19 | 17 | $25 | |
| 9 | $14 | 22 | -8 | 20 | 24 | 22 | 21 | $19 | |
| 10 | $20 | 22 | -2 | 21 | 21 | 23 | 19 | $15 | |
| | Average | $23 | 25 | -1 | 26 | 24 | 24 | 25 | $23 |
This is old news in the American League, where no matter what happened the previous year, the most expensive starter gets a $31 average salary year in and year out. But in the N.L., it's pretty common to see at least one big-ticket item in the mid-$30s and then at least one more pitcher at $30 or $31 in salary.
You could argue that the pitchers on this list are getting paid what they earned in 2010, and that those earnings are less than we've seen since I started tracking these data in 2008. But the real reason that the salaries at the top dropped was the influx of pitching talent into the National League. Lee, Greinke, Shaun Marcum, Matt Garza and a full season of Daniel Hudson were available for N.L. owners to bid on as new pitchers in the pool. The A.L. only had mid-season imports Dan Haren and Edwin Jackson as new blood. Why pay $35 for Halladay or $32 for Lee with so many good pitchers floating around in the middle and even at the end?
Average Auction Pitcher, 2011
American League: 115.9 IP, 6.9 W, 4.3 SV, 90.9 K, 3.94 ERA, 1.276 WHIP
National League: 120.2 IP, 7.1 W, 4.9 SV, 100.6 K, 3.68 ERA, 1.261 WHIP
The average pitcher purchased in the National League was simply better last year than the average pitcher purchased in the American League. To put this another way, if Kershaw had put up the same exact season in the American League, he would have earned $42, not $38. This cuts both ways, of course; Justin Verlander's $46 season in the A.L. would have "only" been worth $42 in the National League.
The experts might not have went through this same exact mental exercise, but they know not to push too hard on the top arms in this kind of climate. In a four-way battle with the expert leagues, Rotoman buys Halladay, Lincecum, Johnson, ties CBS/LABR on Kershaw, and ties CBS on Lee. LABR gets Greinke and Hanson. CBS gets Hamels and Latos. Tout Wars is left with Gallardo.
Some of these price differences are surprising. A $6 difference between CBS and LABR on Lee, a $5 difference on Johnson, and a $4 difference on Hamels? LABR, in particular, seems to have little to no interest in price enforcing the top pitchers. Yes, there are better stats to be had in the N.L., but I'd be careful...the best pitchers in the N.L. are still found primarily among the 10 most expensive pitchers, and you're still not going to get a top 10 pitcher without spending double-digits.
Top 10 N.L. Starting Pitchers 2011
| # | Name | $ | SAL | +/- | CBS | LABR | TW | PK | 2010 |
| 1 | Clayton Kershaw | $38 | 24 | 14 | 25 | 25 | 23 | 25 | $24 |
| 2 | Roy Halladay | $34 | 31 | 2 | 32 | 30 | 32 | 34 | $38 |
| 3 | Cliff Lee | $33 | 26 | 7 | 29 | 23 | 26 | 29 | $27 |
| 4 | $29 | 10 | 19 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 11 | $15 | |
| 5 | Cole Hamels | $28 | 23 | 6 | 25 | 21 | 22 | 24 | $23 |
| 6 | $24 | 20 | 4 | 20 | 19 | 20 | 25 | $25 | |
| 7 | Tim Lincecum | $23 | 28 | -6 | 30 | 27 | 28 | 31 | $22 |
| 8 | $21 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 16 | $25 | |
| 9 | Yovani Gallardo | $20 | 22 | -2 | 21 | 21 | 23 | 19 | $15 |
| 10 | $19 | 12 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 12 | 14 | $10 | |
| | average | $27 | 21 | 6 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 23 | $22 |
Six out of the 10 pitchers here are repeaters from the first chart, and only Kennedy, Hudson, and Bumgarner can really be called surprises. Rotoman is the big winner here, grabbing Cain and Hudson. At least LABR's tight-fisted ways with some of the top pitchers is justified; they tie Rotoman on Bumgarner and Kennedy.
There's nothing wrong with what the experts did last year. Your goal is to buy a pitching staff, not just a top pitcher. But, as always, there are stats to be had at the top of the food chain (as I'll demonstrate in my next post). Drop your pitching prices if you like, but at some point you have to push the top starters and pay at least one or two of them what they're worth.
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