2011 A.L. Starting Pitchers: Part II

If there's one thing you can always take to the bank, it's that this group of pitchers is almost certain to lose money every year.

Next 10 Most Expensive (11-20) A.L. Starting Pitchers, 2011

#	Name	$	SAL	+/-	CBS	LABR	TW	PK	2010
11	Josh Beckett	$27	16	11	17	15	17	14	-$2
12	Brett Anderson	$4	16	-12	18	16	14	14	$12
13	Clay Buchholz	$7	16	-9	15	16	16	19	$24
14	Brandon Morrow	$12	15	-3	15	16	15	12	$10
15	John Danks	$8	15	-7	14	15	15	15	$19
16	Gio Gonzalez	$21	14	7	12	15	15	15	$19
17	Ricky Romero	$27	14	13	15	13	14	13	$17
18	Phil Hughes	-$1	14	-15	16	13	12	14	$16
19	Brian Matusz	-$13	13	-26	13	13	13	13	$9
20	Jeremy Hellickson	$21	13	8	13	13	13	14	$5
	Average	$11	15	-3	15	15	14	14	$13

It was a close call in 2010 ($13 earned/$14 paid), not as close in 2009 ($12/$17) and a rout in 2008 ($8/$16, adjusting for 5x5). For four years running now, the market loses money on these pitchers.

It's not that these pitchers all fail to meet expectations across the board. From 2009-2011, there are anywhere from 3-5 starters who turn a profit. No, it's that these guys are all over the place...and the ones that lose money lose big. There were five double-digit losers in 2008 and 2009, two in 2010, and three last year. Only in 2010 were there more double-digit losers in the 10 most expensive pitchers than there were in the second 10 most expensive pitchers.

Think about that for a moment. You had more of a chance on losing big bucks on a pitcher if you spent $14-17 per pitcher than if you spent $23-25.

Does Rotoman know this, and is this why he's spending like a drunken sailor on the top pitchers? I'm not sure, but after a crazy spending spree on the most expensive guys, he backs off in a big way here. CBS has the highest bids on Anderson, Hughes and Romero; LABR is out in front on Morrow, and Rotoman wins on Buchholz and Hellickson. There are a lot of ties; if there's one thing we know about Stage Three and pitchers, it's that despite the wide range of expectations, our bids fall in the middle of these expectations quite a bit.

The starters above are the only ones in the A.L. who lose money for their owners as a group.

Next 10 Most Expensive (21-30) A.L. Starting Pitchers 2011

#	Name	$	SAL	+/-	CBS	LABR	TW	PK	2010
21	Jake Peavy	$6	13	-7	9	14	15	6	$7
22	John Lackey	-$6	13	-18	14	10	14	9	$9
23	Trevor Cahill	$9	13	-4	15	12	11	13	$25
24	James Shields	$34	12	22	9	14	14	12	$5
25	Edwin Jackson	$6	12	-6	13	13	10	10	$7
26	C.J. Wilson	$27	11	16	12	12	10	11	$20
27	Ervin Santana	$20	11	9	11	12	10	12	$16
28	Gavin Floyd	$15	10	5	9	10	10	10	$10
29	Michael Pineda	$19	9	10	7	11	8	8
30	Joel Pineiro	-$2	7	-10	9	9	4	6	$11
	Average	$13	11	2	11	12	11	10	$11

Everyone else from this point forward makes money for his owners. But only a little. As a general proposition, the amount of money spent has to equal the amount of money earned. Since I use three expert leagues to determine auction populations and not all three leagues buy the same 108 pitchers, the earnings versus the salaries are going to be imperfect. But it should add up...more or less.

Despite the modest $2 per pitcher profit, this is a group of either great success or great failure; only Cahill is within $4 or less of his bid price one way or the other. The market pays these pitchers what they earned in 2010...though, again, only as a group.

One interesting note: in 2010 and 2011 there were 28 starting pitchers with a salary of $10 or more. Rotisserie owners aren't reacting to past events as much as they're slotting pitchers and deciding that they're only going to pay so much for so many starters. There is a finite pool of money, and for pitchers this is particularly true.

Next 10 Most Expensive (31-40) A.L. Starting Pitchers 2011

#	Name	$	SAL	+/-	CBS	LABR	TW	PK	2010
31	Scott Baker	$15	7	8	10	8	4	9	$10
32	A.J. Burnett	$5	7	-2	4	8	9	7	$0
33	Wade Davis	$6	7	-1	5	8	8	10	$10
34	Brett Cecil	$3	7	-3	4	8	8	10	$11
35	Dallas Braden	$2	7	-5	5	8	7	7	$17
36	Kevin Slowey	-$4	7	-10	8	8	4	3	$10
37	Jeff Niemann	$11	6	5	7	6	6	6	$11
38	Derek Holland	$15	6	9	1	5	11	9	$3
39	Jeremy Guthrie	$8	6	2	6	5	6	10	$16
40	Brian Duensing	$0	5	-5	3	8	5	6	$15
	Average	$6	6	0	5	7	7	8	$10

If you were hoping to see a $20+ earner on this chart, forget it. I mean put it completely out of you mind. Doug Fister was the only American League pitcher (not just starting pitcher, but pitcher) to get paid less than $10 and earn more than $20. For all of the talk of how unpredictable pitchers are, American League pitchers were very predictable last year. If you tried to eke out a title with a $40-50 pitching staff last year, my analytical guess is that you struggled with this strategy.

Rotoman dominates this chart and the next one in terms of price. He has to; he was shortchanging the best hitters and now we see where he's allocating his dollars. This is fine as a pricer. In practice, if you're sitting in an auction and see the pitching prices skew like this, you had better adjust on the fly; that is, unless you want to spend $130 on offense.

The other side of the stability coin is that while there weren't a lot of big winners on the cheap, there weren't a lot of big losers either.

Next 10 Most Expensive (41-50) A.L. Starting Pitchers 2011

#	Name	$	SAL	+/-	CBS	LABR	TW	PK	2010
41	Carl Pavano	$6	5	0	4	7	5	8	$18
42	Rick Porcello	$6	5	0	3	8	5	6	$3
43	Erik Bedard	$10	5	5	1	7	6	5
44	Alexi Ogando	$18	4	14	2	5	6	4	$8
45	Brandon Webb		4	-4	4	3	6	5
46	Justin Masterson	$18	4	14	4	5	4	3	$1
47	Carlos Carrasco	$5	4	1	3	5	4	5	$2
48	Fausto Carmona	$0	4	-4	3	4	4	7	$13
49	Kyle Drabek	-$6	4	-10	2	4	5	5	$0
50	Mark Buehrle	$14	4	10	4	4	3	8	$7
	average	$7	4	3	3	5	5	6	$5

Hughes, Matusz, Lackey, Pineiro, Slowey, and Drabek. That's - what - six negative earners out of the 50 starting pitchers? If the penalty for spending $4 on Fausto Carmona is a $0 season, I can live with that...once, not over and over and over. If the penalty for my $4 bid on Carrasco is a $5 season, that's actually great...I need those earnings to come from somewhere, and breaking even on all of the pitching investments - even the bottom ones - means that I'm at least going to have a shot at contending.

CBS and Rotoman come at this from opposite ends of the spectrum. CBS is out of money - they spent it all on the best pitchers, but they really spent it all on the best hitters. Rotoman saved his money, so now he can pick and choose from among these starters. And I'm not being sarcastic. I really like some of these guys (though maybe not some of the same guys Rotoman does).

However, I think I'd rather spend less here at the bottom as a general proposition. Yes, this wasn't a good year to get too many bargains at the bottom of the barrel. But that's the exception and not the rule. The $4 buys are often indistinguishable at the end of the season from the $2 buys. There's nothing wrong with expressing a preference now and again. But as far as spending $4-5 over and over again on the guys at the back of your staff? I advise against it.