If you missed out on one of
the top N.L. starters in 2010,
you probably did OK if you bought someone in the next
most expensive group. But that wasn't the case last year.
Next 10 Most Expensive
(11-20) N.L. Starting Pitchers 2011
|
#
|
Name
|
$
|
SAL
|
+/-
|
CBS
|
LABR
|
TW
|
PK
|
2010
|
|
11
|
$4
|
20
|
-17
|
20
|
19
|
22
|
23
|
$29
|
|
|
12
|
$24
|
20
|
4
|
20
|
19
|
20
|
25
|
$25
|
|
|
13
|
$7
|
18
|
-11
|
16
|
20
|
19
|
22
|
$29
|
|
|
14
|
$15
|
18
|
-3
|
19
|
16
|
19
|
23
|
$24
|
|
|
15
|
$5
|
18
|
-13
|
15
|
19
|
20
|
19
|
$16
|
|
|
16
|
$17
|
17
|
0
|
14
|
19
|
17
|
16
|
$20
|
|
|
17
|
$14
|
16
|
-2
|
15
|
16
|
18
|
17
|
$20
|
|
|
18
|
$18
|
16
|
2
|
14
|
17
|
17
|
14
|
$16
|
|
|
19
|
$12
|
15
|
-2
|
13
|
15
|
16
|
14
|
$15
|
|
|
20
|
$2
|
14
|
-12
|
11
|
16
|
16
|
15
|
$21
|
|
|
Average
|
$12
|
17
|
-5
|
16
|
18
|
18
|
19
|
$21
|
This phenomenon isn't just
limited to the National League. The same thing has happened in the American
League for four
years running. Despite the fact that it was technically close in 2010, the
pitchers in this "next most expensive" group have lost money in the
N.L. for four years running as well.
Here it's as if the market
knows that these pitchers are going to crash and burn and can't discount them
fast enough. And it's not like the most
expensive pitchers were way better in 2010 than this group was.
Twenty-dollars in average earnings versus $23? Hardly a slam-dunk.
As I've speculated before,
though, it isn't so much a specific bias against these pitchers
as it is the idea that there's only so much money to go around and somebody has
to take a pay cut. Jimenez ($9 drop from 2011 salary from 2010 earnings) and
Oswalt's ($11) pay cuts are drastic, but the next highest cuts in the 20 most
expensive pitchers go to Roy
Halladay and Jonathan Sanchez ($7 apiece). As I keep saying, the
market isn't making predictions so much as it's placing bets, and there is a
cap on what it's going to bet. This is a nice way of saying that the market is
also slotting on these pitchers, and not necessarily using its best judgment on
each and every pitcher.
Rotoman's $2 pay cut per pitcher might be the most
reasonable stand to take here even though he winds up being the most off the
mark. These pitchers were good in 2010; why shouldn't they get paid in 2011? Be
that as it may, Rotoman's prices would have landed you
Jimenez, Cain, Oswalt and Carpenter in a battle with the Tout market. Cain
works out, but that foursome wasn't giving you a leg up last year.
LABR and Tout Wars have the
next highest prices. LABR "wins" Marcum and ties Tout Wars on Hudson
and Sanchez. Tout Wars cleans up on the rest of these arms, getting
Billingsley, Lilly, and Rodriguez.
CBS is shut out. It's
certainly wise to avoid taking a $5 loss/getting a $12 return on a $17 pitcher,
but a $5 pay cut per pitcher here seems silly, even if it wound up being
"right."
But it's not so much that
CBS doesn't like these pitchers so much as it is that they're out of money.
Next 10 Most Expensive
(21-30) N.L. Starting Pitchers 2011
|
#
|
Name
|
$
|
SAL
|
+/-
|
CBS
|
LABR
|
TW
|
PK
|
2010
|
|
21
|
$16
|
13
|
2
|
13
|
13
|
14
|
15
|
$16
|
|
|
22
|
$18
|
13
|
5
|
13
|
13
|
13
|
12
|
$19
|
|
|
23
|
-$4
|
13
|
-17
|
9
|
18
|
12
|
10
|
$2
|
|
|
24
|
$21
|
13
|
8
|
11
|
14
|
13
|
16
|
$25
|
|
|
25
|
$3
|
13
|
-10
|
9
|
13
|
16
|
13
|
$12
|
|
|
26
|
$19
|
12
|
6
|
11
|
14
|
12
|
14
|
$10
|
|
|
27
|
$3
|
11
|
-9
|
7
|
12
|
15
|
12
|
$17
|
|
|
28
|
$11
|
11
|
0
|
8
|
13
|
11
|
10
|
$13
|
|
|
29
|
$14
|
10
|
4
|
6
|
13
|
12
|
12
|
$1
|
|
|
30
|
$16
|
10
|
6
|
6
|
11
|
13
|
9
|
$3
|
|
|
average
|
$12
|
12
|
0
|
9
|
13
|
13
|
12
|
$12
|
The heavy spending on the
top hitters has to take a toll somewhere, since each expert league has a hard
salary cap. For CBS, it's on the pitchers that aren't in the Top 10. They're in
the game on Garza and Kuroda but then just run out of money.
If you were happily
pinching your pennies on the 11-20 grouping, you probably should have dove in
here. Bargains are great, but you do want to spend some money on starting
pitching and put together a staff...particularly in 5x5. You need strikeouts
and - by extension - you need innings. A three SP strategy can work well in
4x4. In 5x5? Not so much.
LABR and Tout Wars are the
most aggressive bidders here. LABR gets Volquez, Chacin and Zimmerman. Tout
Wars gets Nolasco, Dempster and Vazquez. Rotoman gets Garza
and Hudson. LABR and Rotoman tie on Bumgarner while all of the
expert leagues tie on Kuroda.
I find the lack of
consensus on these starters moderately surprising. Some of it, of course, is
CBS, but even among the more "standard" expert leagues and Rotoman the
differences are pretty atypical. LABR's $6 higher on Volquez than Tout Wars?
Tout Wars' $3 differences on Nolasco and Dempster? This isn't how Stage Three
is supposed to play out. It's become so run-of-the-mill to see prices that are
either exactly alike or within $1 of each other that these small differences
jump out.
It appears that CBS is back
in the game with the next group.
Next 10 Most Expensive
(31-40) N.L. Starting Pitchers 2011
|
#
|
Name
|
$
|
SAL
|
+/-
|
CBS
|
LABR
|
TW
|
PK
|
2010
|
|
31
|
$5
|
10
|
-5
|
10
|
10
|
10
|
12
|
$21
|
|
|
32
|
$29
|
10
|
19
|
9
|
11
|
9
|
11
|
$15
|
|
|
33
|
$18
|
9
|
9
|
10
|
11
|
6
|
7
|
$14
|
|
|
34
|
$12
|
9
|
3
|
8
|
9
|
10
|
12
|
$17
|
|
|
35
|
9
|
-9
|
27
|
$35
|
|||||
|
36
|
$0
|
8
|
-8
|
7
|
10
|
7
|
10
|
$11
|
|
|
37
|
$12
|
7
|
5
|
9
|
8
|
5
|
8
|
$14
|
|
|
38
|
$6
|
6
|
-1
|
6
|
6
|
7
|
4
|
$6
|
|
|
39
|
$6
|
6
|
0
|
2
|
12
|
4
|
4
|
$4
|
|
|
40
|
$1
|
6
|
-5
|
4
|
6
|
8
|
13
|
$10
|
|
|
average
|
$9
|
8
|
1
|
9
|
8
|
7
|
8
|
$15
|
But a lot of that is
Wainwright. Take him out, and CBS's average salary drops from $9 to $7...and
they're at the back of the line, not in front of it. There were certainly
reasons why some prices dropped and others went up, but without this context
some of these raises and drops seem capricious. This isn't just an $11 drop in
salary we're looking at for Myers, but a more than 50% drop as well. The
market's limited amount of money plays out on each and every pitcher. For some
pitchers, the market holds the line while for others it can only find so much
money. The market pays the pitchers it likes, discounts the ones it doesn't
like, and it's that simple.
Even without Wainwright,
though, the touts are back to not trusting. The average 2010 earnings without Wainwright
are $11 per pitcher, but that still represents a pretty steep $3 per pitcher
pay cut.
And the market eventually
runs out of money
Next 10 Most Expensive
(41-50) N.L. Starting Pitchers 2011
|
#
|
Name
|
$
|
SAL
|
+/-
|
CBS
|
LABR
|
TW
|
PK
|
2010
|
|
41
|
$10
|
6
|
4
|
4
|
5
|
8
|
11
|
$13
|
|
|
42
|
$0
|
6
|
-6
|
7
|
4
|
6
|
4
|
$19
|
|
|
43
|
-$2
|
6
|
-8
|
4
|
5
|
8
|
8
|
$12
|
|
|
44
|
$14
|
5
|
9
|
4
|
7
|
5
|
7
|
$4
|
|
|
45
|
$2
|
5
|
-3
|
5
|
8
|
3
|
3
|
-$1
|
|
|
46
|
$6
|
5
|
1
|
4
|
6
|
5
|
7
|
$8
|
|
|
47
|
$9
|
5
|
4
|
4
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
$4
|
|
|
48
|
$2
|
5
|
-3
|
5
|
5
|
4
|
4
|
$12
|
|
|
49
|
-$4
|
5
|
-8
|
5
|
5
|
4
|
7
|
$6
|
|
|
50
|
$3
|
4
|
-1
|
4
|
5
|
4
|
7
|
$4
|
|
|
average
|
$4
|
5
|
-1
|
5
|
6
|
5
|
6
|
$8
|
You can kind of see why the
market isn't all that enthusiastic about these pitchers. They seem to know
what's coming on the double-digit earners like Arroyo, Lowe and Richard.
Pessimism pays here on most of these pitchers; while missing out on Jurrjens
and Stauffer isn't a great outcome, it's not the end of the world either.
Next 10 Most Expensive
(51-60) N.L. Starting Pitchers 2011
|
#
|
Name
|
$
|
SAL
|
+/-
|
CBS
|
LABR
|
TW
|
PK
|
2010
|
|
51
|
$10
|
4
|
6
|
1
|
4
|
7
|
7
|
-$2
|
|
|
52
|
-$1
|
4
|
-5
|
5
|
3
|
4
|
2
|
$8
|
|
|
53
|
-$2
|
4
|
-6
|
3
|
5
|
4
|
7
|
$12
|
|
|
54
|
$13
|
4
|
9
|
3
|
3
|
5
|
6
|
$17
|
|
|
55
|
-$1
|
4
|
-5
|
2
|
5
|
4
|
4
|
$4
|
|
|
56
|
$0
|
3
|
-3
|
3
|
2
|
5
|
4
|
$6
|
|
|
57
|
$7
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
4
|
4
|
$9
|
||
|
58
|
3
|
-3
|
4
|
4
|
1
|
2
|
$20
|
||
|
59
|
$11
|
3
|
8
|
2
|
3
|
3
|
6
|
$9
|
|
|
60
|
$0
|
3
|
-3
|
2
|
5
|
1
|
7
|
$15
|
|
|
average
|
$4
|
3
|
0
|
3
|
4
|
4
|
5
|
$10
|
Rotoman keeps on going and going here, but everyone else
is simply running out of steam - and money.
The thing that amazes me
about all of these charts from 21-30 on down is how good the market is on the
whole at predicting how well or how badly these pitchers are going to do.
Coming within $1 of earnings on average for each of these groups is a pretty
solid track record, particularly for pitchers who earned $12, $15, $8, and $10
on average in 2010. If you sorted these pitchers by last year's earnings, the
bids would seem pretty scattershot.
Or would they?
N.L. Starting Pitcher Bids,
Sorted by 2010 Earnings
|
#
|
Slot
|
$
|
SAL
|
+/-
|
CBS
|
LABR
|
TW
|
PK
|
2010
|
|
1-10
|
$19
|
21
|
-2
|
23
|
19
|
20
|
22
|
$28
|
|
|
11-20
|
$14
|
16
|
-3
|
16
|
17
|
17
|
17
|
$21
|
|
|
21-30
|
$11
|
10
|
0
|
9
|
11
|
11
|
11
|
$16
|
|
|
31-40
|
$9
|
11
|
-2
|
10
|
11
|
10
|
11
|
$13
|
|
|
41-50
|
$4
|
6
|
-1
|
5
|
6
|
6
|
7
|
$8
|
|
|
51-60
|
$7
|
7
|
0
|
4
|
9
|
7
|
7
|
$2
|
This chart simply takes the
60 most expensive starting pitchers in the National League last year and sorts
them solely based on 2010's earnings. Look at these pitchers through this lens,
and the pricing suddenly doesn't seem so scattershot. The pitchers at the
bottom get a pretty big raise, the pitchers near the bottom take a slight pay
cut, and then the pay cuts get bigger and bigger as you move toward the top.
From this perspective, the
pay cuts almost make complete sense. Every group loses money except 21-30 and
51-60. With the exception of the 51-60 group, though, the average 2011 salary
comes far closer to predicting the 2011 earnings than the 2010 earnings do.
Keep this in mind when
you’re building your bids for pitchers this year. Some pitchers might get paid
what they earned in 2011, but across the board there will be pay cuts. You can
certainly feel free to pay what each and every pitcher earned last year, but if
you do this – and if your league is anything like the expert leagues – I
suspect that you’ll run out of money for hitting awfully fast.
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