CBS Expert Analyst NL-Only 5x5 Results - Third Base

The (Boring?) Top Tier: David Wright ($37), Ryan Zimmerman ($34)

David Wright is such a boring player.  He just earns in the high-$20s and low $30s, with the potential to easily reach the high-$30s and low-$40s.  The power seems to be there still, though the speed seems to be in decline; Wright’s SB% dropped off last year considerably.  I think the higher strikeouts and lower OBP are the result of Wright trying to carry the offense in the absence of Bay, Beltran, et al.  This bid, particularly for CBS, is not bad; I might be just a couple of ticks under.  Zimmerman is not quite as boring, though he is under the radar in Washington.  The question every year is: what Zimmerman will show up?  I did not think Zimmerman’s power was sustainable in that ballpark, and it did drop off, but the average and OBP picked up.  The reality, however, is that he is more likely to earn in the $20s than the $30s, and, as such, this bid is too high.

Next in Line: Pedro Alvarez ($29), Martin Prado ($24), Aramis Ramirez ($22)

Okay, if you saw the price of Pedro Alvarez and soda/coffee/milk/water came out of your nose, raise your hand!  Pedro has huge power potential, but we know the caveats: poor K/W, poor OBP, poor pitch selection, very fortunate H%.  Please do not bid $29 on Alvarez; $15-$16 seems a bit more reasonable.  I already spoke about Prado here.  His position flexibility really adds to his value.  Rumors of Aramis Ramirez’ demise are likely overstated.  There is decline, but Ramirez is only 32, and the last two years are certainly injury-related.  If the BABIP returns, there is no reason that Ramirez will not return to 2008 levels, as the power appears to be there.  $22 is not outrageous, but I think you need to be cautious getting up to this level.

The (Crowded) Teens: Casey McGehee ($18), Chris Johnson ($16), Ian Stewart ($14), Chase Headley ($14), Miguel Tejada ($13), Ty Wigginton ($12), Juan Uribe ($12), Omar Infante ($11), David Freese ($11), Scott Rolen ($11)

I spoke about Infante and Uribe here, Tejada here and Wigginton here.

McGehee is the best price so far.  The fact of the matter is that he has done something productive for two consecutive years.  He seems to cause a lot of debate about average, OBP, power, etc.  The fact is, however, that while his slugging dropped and his OBP dropped (along with his BABIP and average), he earned $26 in 4x4.  This bid should be a profit-generator, which is uncommon at this level of productive stats.  Part of the reason McGehee went for only $18 is that I paid $16 for Chris Johnson early.  Johnson’s BABIP is not sustainable, or, at least, it should not be.  On the flip side, if you pro-rate his season to 550 at-bats last year, his slash is: 18/84/5.  Even if the average drops down to .280 or .290, he is productive and has no challenge to his playing time.  Ian Stewart forgot how to hit lefties last year, but improved on his terrible average (though a healthy .318 BABIP helped).  Stewart is entering his age 26-27 years, and the power potential is certainly there, particularly as a fairly drastic fly ball hitter.  With Michael Young rumors squelched for now, Stewart’s playing time appears safe, and 25-30 home runs is a realistic possibility.  The news on Freese is discouraging; his playing time is going to be cut down quite a bit due to the ankle surgeries.  On the flip side, in a mere 240 AB last year, he earned close to his bid here.  Even if he is limited to 400 AB, he’ll earn in the low-to-mid-teens.  It is really hard to expect another $20 season from Rolen, but Rolen has earned in the low-teens for a few years now.  His career clearly seems to be declining, but not enough to make this a bad bid.

The Pre-End Game: Placido Polanco ($8), Chipper Jones ($7), Melvin Mora ($5)

Polanco may be a decent value here.  His slugging percentage dropped and his home runs dropped, perhaps against conventional wisdom moving from Tiger Stadium to Citizens Bank Park.  On the flip side, he hit nearly .300 and earned $16 in 4x4.  My guess is that he will go in the mid-teens in most NL-or AL-only leagues.  For Jones, following his huge 2007, there was nowhere to go but down.  2009 saw a big power decline and 2010 saw the significant injury.  At age 39 (in April), what can we really expect from Jones?  With lots of position flexibility from Prado, frankly, it is hard to imagine him not earning at least $10; he can handle the bat well and there is still some power there.  The question is really what your own personal value point is for a big risk.  Speaking of big risks, Mora is now 547 years old on the Mayan calendar.  In part-time work last year, Mora earned $11.  His average has floated in the .270s and .280s for awhile now, so there is no reason to expect less.  A repeat of last year is certainly within reach in Arizona.

Potential Value?: Jose Lopez ($4), Casey Blake ($3), Jeff Baker ($2), Matt Dominguez ($2), Nick Punto ($1), Jorge Cantu ($1)

I spoke about Jeff Baker here, so no need to repeat.  I also spoke about Nick Punto briefly here.  Just a note that Punto is going to be out 2-3 months with a sports hernia; not a good sign for a guy who makes a living running.  I would steer clear.

The .609 OPS last year really stands out in Jose Lopez’ line, particularly coming off of .765 and .766 OPS’ in the previous two years.  While the Rockies have a glut of guys who can play the middle infield, Lopez may have the most pop of any of them, and he will certainly get the first chance to prove he can still play.  I think this is a very nice price – he will go for more in your home league.  Casey Blake turns 38 this year, and all he does is produce stats: 19, 18, 11, 10, 18 and 17 home runs in the last 6 years, two of those years with less than 325 AB.  His value fluctuates with his average, but he is almost a guaranteed profit-maker at this price.  Cantu goes to San Diego to peddle his wares.  He might have been the most talked about player in April, but his production declined as the season wore on, and he flopped in Texas down the stretch.  He will be getting part-time at-bats at best, but could earn a couple of dollars.

Dominguez is certainly the most intriguing player here.  He handled the bat fairly well in A and AA, but the Marlins appear content to hand him the third base job.  That could very well change in spring training, so Dominguez may not be on your radar by the time your auction comes.  I would not expect much from Dominguez even if he does get 450 at-bats this year; the power looks slow to develop and he does not hit for much average.