Another A.L.-Only Keeper Question (Plus Inflation Valuation)

Arthur liked my response to T.N. so much that it prompted him to ask his own A.L.-only keeper question:

...here is another A.L.-only, 10-team, 5x5 scenario: Can keep six of the following:

Joe Mauer (23), Ryan Raburn (7), Mike Aviles (4), Mike Napoli (7), Nelson Cruz (14), Gordon Beckham (4), Francisco Liriano (13), Clay Buchholz (7), Brian Matusz (7). Think that Cruz, Liriano, Buchholz and Beckham are slam-dunks. Mauer or Napoli? The inflation factor should lean towards Mauer, right? And then Raburn or Matusz?

Arthur's thoughts are pretty much in line with mine on the raw value of these players. I'd rank Cruz, Liriano, Buchholz and Beckham as Arthur's best four keeps as well. I like Napoli a lot in Texas, so I might include him on the periphery of that core of four as well and in terms of raw value I'd actually rank Raburn over Mauer.

The inflation factor, however, could put Mauer over Raburn or even ahead of Napoli. I'm glad Arthur brought this up, because my answer to T.N. kind of glossed over what is a very important point.

In a league with no freezes, if your bid price for Mauer is $29 and you buy him for $23 you've turned a $6 profit. If your bid price for Napoli is $17 and you get him for $7 you've turned a $10 profit. Obviously, you'd rather have Napoli.

As we all know, though, keeper leagues are going to have some kind of inflation. And the higher the inflation is, the more valuable Mauer at $23 is going to be to your team.

With 0% inflation, Mauer provides $6 of value to your team, while Napoli provides $10.

With 10% inflation, Mauer is worth an additional $8.09 to your team, while Napoli is worth an additional $10.64.

With 20% inflation, Mauer is worth an additional $9.84 to your team. Napoli is worth $11.17.

With 30% inflation, Mauer is worth an additional $11.30. Napoli is worth $11.61.

Even with the higher inflation, Mauer isn't a better freeze than Napoli (assuming, that is, you believe in the bid values I presented). But the higher inflation makes it close. That's because the higher the inflation, the less impact the extra $16 you have when you keep Napoli over Mauer has on your team. With 10% inflation, that $16 will buy you $14.55 worth of stats at inflation par. At 30% inflation, that same $16 will only buy you $12.31 worth of stats. Two dollars and twenty-four cents might not sound like a big difference, but across the course of an entire auction, those little differences add up.

My raw bid on Raburn is higher than my raw bid on Matusz, so without any other information in front of me I'd keep Raburn. However, if pitching is scarcer than hitting in your auction and there are plenty of OF available, you might want to keep Matusz instead. If your league has a moderate to heavy dump culture, I'd probably keep Matusz; I think it's more likely you'll be able to turn Matusz into two stronger players come dump time than you will with Raburn.

If inflation is going to be a factor, I'd probably keep Mauer and throw back Raburn and Matusz. But, again, in a league with a dump culture of any kind, Matusz might be worth gambling on. The flip side of that argument is that if you throw Matusz back he might go for too much if your league chases young pitching, sucking money out of the auction that you can spend for more wisely elsewhere.