Gypsy Soul wants to know:
with hitting apparently scarcer and pitching more abundant, how much will this effect prices? has it affected prices in any of your auctions?
Since this comment was under one of Toz's N.L. posts, I'm going to go out on a limb and assume that Gypsy is talking about the influx of pitching into the National League. Cliff Lee, Zack Greinke, Shaun Marcum, Matt Garza...it does seem like the pitching flowed into the N.L. and out of the A.L.
Did it impact prices?
CBS N.L. Expert League Bids: Pitchers
CBS 2010 | CBS 2011 | |
Tier #1 | $336 | $306 |
Tier #2 | $238 | $201 |
Tier #3 | $191 | $141 |
Tier #4 | $124 | $123 |
Tier #5 | $83 | $110 |
Tier #6 | $51 | $72 |
Tier #7 | $28 | $30 |
Tier #8 | $12 | $17 |
Tier #9 | $12 | $12 |
Total | $1075 | $937 |
It sure did in the CBS auction. Owners spent less money across the board on the top pitchers, though in Tier #3 (the 25th through 36th most expensive pitchers), owners in CBS really cut back.
In the top tier, owners simply refused to go too high for the best arms. Roy Halladay went for $34 in 2010; he only went for $32 this year. Tim Lincecum went for $37 in 2010; this year he dropped all the way to $30. Twenty pitchers cracked the $20 barrier in 2010; in 2011 only 15 cost $20 or more.
Much of the drop, though, has less to do with starting pitching and more to do with erosion in closer prices. Nine closers cost $18 or more in 2010. This year, only Carlos Marmol, Brian Wilson, and Heath Bell cost more than $16.
CBS N.L. Expert League Bids: Hitters
CBS 2010 | CBS 2011 | |
Tier #1 | $494 | $489 |
Tier #2 | $370 | $352 |
Tier #3 | $290 | $294 |
Tier #4 | $228 | $251 |
Tier #5 | $185 | $202 |
Tier #6 | $151 | $146 |
Tier #7 | $102 | $126 |
Tier #8 | $75 | $105 |
Tier #9 | $52 | $76 |
Tier #10 | $38 | $52 |
Tier #11 | $24 | $34 |
Tier #12 | $12 | $24 |
Tier #13 | $12 | $12 |
Tier #14 | $12 | $12 |
Totals | $2,045 | $2,175 |
Obviously, if there was less money spent on pitching, then the money had to go to hitting. However, the money didn't go to the top hitters but rather to some of the very good hitters, the hitters in the middle, and some at the bottom
The second tier of hitters actually got paid less this year. If I had to attempt to cobble together an explanation, I'd say that the drop here reflects the fact that the market recognizes that the "next best thing" hitters aren't quite as good this year, while the higher prices elsewhere acknowledge that you'd better spend your money somewhere if you want to field a complete offense.
Looking at the Tier #7-10 hitters, it looks more like the CBS owners are gambling on certain players rather than paying more for boring veterans. Brandon Belt ($10), Eric Young Jr. ($10), and Ben Francisco ($9) look like plays by owners who are hoping to hit the jackpot. The boring veterans like Lyle Overbay ($7), Raul Ibanez ($7), Marlon Byrd ($9), and Adam LaRoche ($10) are still getting paid in line with what they went for in 2010.
If this happens in your auction this spring, I'd recommend paying more for one or two of the top guys (but not the crazy CBS prices) while filling in with the boring vets and avoiding too many risky plays. In this year's environment where players like Melvin Mora and Jay Gibbons look like they're going to have full time jobs as I write this, it's even more important to make sure you lock in production and at bats as opposed to rolling the dice that Brandon Belt is going to have a $20 season this year.
2 comments:
Sorry for not being more clear, I really meant an overall decline in hitting in both leagues. Since you laid out so beautifully what happened in the NL and why, what about the AL? Thanks very much, as always.
If NL pitcher prices went down because of the exit of Lee, Greinke, etc, then I'd suspect that AL pitcher prices would go up ...
But, if NL pitcher prices went down because of a general trend of "expert" players to pay less for pitching, then I'd expect AL pitcher prices would also go down ...
So ... as Gypsy Soul suggests ... let's look at the AL prices ...
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