After participating in last year's CBS N.L.-only Analysts League auction, I posted detailed team-by-team recaps of how all 12 teams in the league projected based on CBS's own player projections (in an attempt to avoid any perception of bias). Most of the feedback I received from my readers was slightly negative, and indicated that my position-by-position breakdown of years past was preferred.
Blair, however, preferred the team-by-team breakdown.
Although you mentioned that the "position" analysis was more popular than the Team analysis (which is a shame by the way, i preferred the other); I was wondering if you could post the projected point totals for each team, similar to last year.
I'm not going to post a 12-part series on how each team in the A.L. did, but I'll gladly give my readers a thumbnail analysis. Once again, projected point totals are based on the CBSSports.com projected stats. To see the rosters, follow the link.
Stats LLC. Projected finish: 12th. Projected point total: 48 (26 hitting/22 pitching). Dollar distribution: $203 hitting/$57 pitching.
On offense, Dean Peterson's team looks like the Patton & Company team with more speed but without the batting average. There's more upside on the bottom of Peterson's team (Lorenzo Cain, Michael Saunders, Jarrod Saltalamacchia), but given the prices he paid for some of these second tier players there's more downside, too. The pitching projection might be generous. Netfali Feliz and Frank Francisco is a great combo if Francisco is healthy, but the rotation is banking on a lot going right. If Jake Peavy is healthy, then that calculus suddenly changes, but Jeff Francis is Stats' #4 starter and Brad Bergesen is Stats' #5.
Fantasy Pros 911. Projected finish: 11th. Projected point total: 52 (47/5). Dollar distribution: $247/$13.
It's the $9 pitching strategy, give or take $4 dollars. The power and runs here looks tremendous, while the steals and batting average project to middle-of-the-pack. The problem I see here is that there aren't any bargains in that $247, and there are some clear overpays (Robinson Cano $49, Adam Dunn $38). When you're spending this much on offense, you obviously can overpay, but you also want some bargains in the endgame, and I don't see any here. The Kila Ka'aihue and Edwin Encarnacion power projections look very generous. The staff is an utter mess. Kyle Farnsworth at $3 could be a moderate bargain. Your goal when you spend $13 on pitching is to churn, churn, churn, and that's what Fantasy Pros will have to do.
CBS Sports.com - Eisenberg. Projected finish: 10th. Projected point total: 55.5 (13/42.5). Dollar distribution: $150/$110.
Jamey Eisenberg's squad is the polar opposite of Fantasy Pros. He spent 86% of his $150 hitting budget on four hitters - Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Alex Rodriguez, and Victor Martinez - and then filled in with a long endgame that included eight $1 hitters. I like a couple of the $1 gambles, but most of them are guys like Andy LaRoche and Lastings Milledge who aren't likely to pan out. The pitching doesn't project extremely well, but Eisenberg bought two proven closers in Jon Papelbon and Jose Valverde and has a pretty solid staff that could exceed even this point total, especially if Erik Bedard shows anything at all.
Fantasy Baseball.com. Projected finish: 9th. Projected point total: 57 (38/19). Dollar distribution: $205/$55.
Chris McDonnell spent over $200 on offense but - according to the projections at least - failed to procure a 40+ point offensive team. His team projects solidly across the board but with no particular strength in any one category. The upside here is a pretty balanced offense is everything breaks right, but Brian Roberts, J.J. Hardy, J.D. Drew and Russell Martin all look high-risk/high-reward. I like the pitching staff better than the projections do, and see the projections as more of a floor than a mid-point. All it takes is one or two of these soft tossers to break out like Dallas Braden did last year and McDonnell could steal 25-30 pitching points. His only saves shot is Matt Capps.
CBS Sports.com - White. Projected finish: 8th. Projected point total: 59 (34/25). Dollar distribution: $197/63.
Like Fantasy Baseball.com, CBS Sports' Scott White has a solid offense across the board without excelling in any category. Like Stats LLC, though, White's batting average doesn't project well; Elvis Andrus is his only hitter who projects over .280. White's $63 bought him a lot of wins and a moderate amount of Ks with poor ERA/WHIP. I like John Danks better than his projection, like Phil Hughes less than his, and know that Scott Kazmir, Vin Mazzaro, and Kyle Drabek aren't going to be permitted to put up 510 IP of a 4.6+ ERA and a 1.4+ WHIP for White. BTW, White has always outdone his projections since I've had the pleasure of competing against him.
MLB Network Radio. Projected finish: 7th. Projected point total: 63 (19/44). Dollar distribution: $168/$92.
Brady Gardiner's offense is extremely soft everywhere save for batting average. Like Eisenberg, Gardiner spent most of his money on a handful of hitters - $154 on Miguel Cabrera, Josh Hamilton, Joe Mauer, Curtis Granderson, and Justin Smoak - and doesn't have a lot of upside in his $1 guys. I like Jack Cust at $1. If Jarrod Dyson steals 26 bases like the CBS projection says he will, I'll be floored. CC Sabathia and Brett Anderson are a strong #1-2 punch, but the rest of Gardiner's staff is riddled with question marks. Spending a combined $30 on Matt Thornton and Chris Sale wasn't a value proposition.
Baseball HQ. Projected finish: 6th. Projected point total: 64 (42/22). Dollar distribution: $194/$66.
Tom Kephart's offensive auction was excellent. In a 12-team A.L.-only league, Kephart bought 12 everyday players, David Murphy, and Yorvit Torrealba. He's a little light in the speed department, but otherwise this is a balanced team that could very well outdo the projection. The pitching is where Kephart might wind up a little light. Max Scherzer could be an ace, but with a $22 salary he has to be. If Michael Pineda or Carlos Carrasco don't pan out, Kephart's going to be scrambling for innings Kevin Gregg, Brandon League, and Dan Bard could get a lot of saves...but at a combined $19 they'd better at least get 40 for these prices to be feasible in 5x5.
Mastersball.com. Projected finish: 5th. Projected point total: 67 (30/37). Dollar distribution: $177/$83.
Christopher Kreush bought a pretty balanced offense for his money. Adrian Beltre was the only player he spent over $23 on, and the result is a balanced line-up. It might be a vanilla line-up - only Beltre, Ryan Raburn and Matt LaPorta are projected to hit over 20 HR - but the upside here is the potential for a lot of at bats. The pitching staff is a high saves (Mariano Rivera and David Aardsma), high ERA/WHIP but low wins and Ks staff that could work but also could wind up needing a lot of replacement innings to make it work. Justin Verlander is a fine anchor, but the three starters behind him are Jeremy Hellickson, Carl Pavano, and Phil Coke. Two of these three need to pitch 200 innings for Mastersball to survive.
Fantasy Sports Empires.com. Projected finish: 4th. Projected point total: 72 (37/35). Dollar distribution: $170/$90.
Here is a case where I feel like the projection was overreaching...and this was before Russ Branyan signed with the Diamondbacks and was lost to Jeff Boggis' team forever (the projection above includes Branyan's projection). Reid Brignac is an absolute steal at $2 and Franklin Gutierrez is a great buy at $7, but there's a lot of risk tied into this offense. Desmond Jennings, Ryan Kalish, Scott Sizemore and Corey Patterson could all be fine but if all four crash and burn this projection suddenly looks terrible. Jered Weaver should be a decent ace, but the pitchers behind him are all OK and not great. The saves projection here looks like a reach, too; Brian Fuentes is not getting 16 saves in 2011, Joe Nathan and Jake McGee are uncertain quantities at this point.
Patton and Company. Projected finish: 3rd. Projected point total: 77 (28/49). Dollar distribution: $156/$104.
A detailed analysis of my auction was provided here.
Yahoo! Sports. Projected finish: 2nd. Projected point total: 78.5 (33/45.5). Dollar distribution: $164/$95.
Scott Pianowski's offense is filled with a bunch of grinders. Shin-Soo Choo exemplifies this team: a bunch of everyday grinders who seldom fill up a box score with crazy numbers but manage to produce. In particular, the Yahoo! team projects very well in runs and batting average and middle-of-the-pack in steals. This fits in well with this team's grinder "philosophy", and I wouldn't be surprised to see Pianowski outdo the projections on offense. The pitching projection looks like a best-case scenario, particularly after double-barreled staff aces Jon Lester and Dan Haren. If Mark Rzepczynski and Derek Holland combine to strike out 322 batters in 2011, I'd be more than a little surprised.
CBS Sports Melchior. Projected finish: 1st. Projected point total: 87 (43/44). Dollar distribution: $175/$82.
Al Melchior did a great job getting the most bang for his buck on offense. There is certainly some playing time risk at the bottom of the spectrum, but this is a team that could also top 7,000 at-bats easily. The offense after Mark Teixeira isn't sexy, but sexy doesn't win championships without substance. Melchior's pitching staff is almost definitely over projected. Felix Hernandez is a great anchor and I like Colby Lewis at $16, but then what? Justin Duchscherer and Jason Vargas round out the bottom of the staff, and like some of the other teams in this league, Melchior could wind up scrambling for innings mid-year. He still bought a strong squad.
No comments:
Post a Comment