Thursday, February 10, 2011

2011 CBSSports.com A.L.-only Analysts League: The Patton and Company Team

CBSsports.com hasn't posted the links yet to either their National League or American League auctions yet, but I am going to go ahead and write about my auction yesterday on the A.L.-only side of the house.

For the second time in three years, I backed into a modified Sweeney Plan. Unfortunately, unlike in 2009, I wasn't able to walk away with a core of scrubs who are strong enough on offense to get me the runs and RBI I think I'm going to need to be competitive on offense. The pitching is fine, but I took a risky maybe-closer and might not have the two closers I need either.

Here's a look at the team I bought. Note that the bid limits are my adjusted bid limits for the CBS auction, where the prices for the elite players are significantly higher in many cases.

Catchers. Adam Moore (bought at $1, my bid limit $1). Jason Varitek ($1, $1).

There's not much to say about these guys. Both were two end game plays I made when I was out of money. Here's hoping they both hit for enough power to be worth over $1 and don't kill my batting average.

Corner Infield: Michael Young ($14, $24), Kevin Kouzmanoff ($10, $12), Casey Kotchman ($1, $2).

Young came up early and the bidding got really slow right around $8. I had $24 on my sheet, but given that we can't keep players traded to the National League, this might very well have been my last bid. It's a great price if he stays in the American League, obviously, and a team killer if he gets shipped out. I still don't see a trade happening unless the Rangers swallow a lot of money. Kouzmanoff is what he is: a low average hitter with a decent amount of power who should get his playing time, whether it's with the A's or someone else. He'll earn this even in a down year. Kotchman was another end game play. If Dan Johnson flames out, Kotchman will start, but I'm not hopeful. This was a far from ideal choice, but with the exception of Justin Morneau the top-tier first basemen were extremely expensive. I opted to play the value game instead.

Middle Infield: Erick Aybar ($9, $12), Dustin Ackley ($2, $4), Macier Izturis ($1, $3).

Aybar was one of the last decent shortstops on the board so I took the plunge. I'm hoping for something between the .312 he hit in 2009 and the .253 he hit in 2010 and 20+ steals. Ackley's value obviously hinges upon when or if he makes the Majors. It's extremely unlikely he breaks camp with the team. A mid-June call-up seems like the best-case scenario; if he only makes it up in September then I took a loss here. Izturis is what he always is: a boring supersub who somehow manages to put up double-digits in value every season except last year. Backing up Aybar, Kendrick, and Callaspo, I suspect Izturis gets his at-bats.

Outfield: Jacoby Ellsbury ($28, $31), Grady Sizemore ($18, $25), Ichiro Suzuki ($28, $29), Josh Willingham ($11, $14), Delmon Young ($24, $26).

Here is where I expect most of my value to come from...though as you can see there is also a good deal of risk. Ellsbury is a Rotisserie monster when he's healthy and at this price all he has to do is duplicate his 2008. Obviously, any lingering effects of injury make this a bad price. Sizemore is another risk, but at $18 he was a risk I thought was worth taking. Even if the speed isn't there, he could earn $20-22 in power and batting average alone. Every year owners are gun shy on Ichiro and every year he produces mega value. He is the Mariano Rivera of hitters: one of these years he is obviously going to get old and go over the cliff, but he's a mild bargain as long as he keeps producing. Willingham is another risk/reward type, though at this price the risk is limited. If he's healthy and can manage 500 AB, he should be a bargain, though of course that's the huge rub. Does Young take that next step forward and become a superstar this year? I don't know, but he earned $26 last year in 5x5 and is still on the right side of the age curve. I'll take him at this price.

Designated Hitter: Hideki Matsui ($8, $12).

I kept trying to push down my bid price and push down my price for Matsui because there were so many DHs out there this year, but in the end I couldn't push it down past $12. It's a shame, because a number of DHs went cheaper that I liked better or about the same, but once again I'll live with a $17 earner in 2010 at this price.

Starting Pitchers: David Price ($23, $25), Clay Buchholz ($15, $20), Trevor Cahill ($15, $17), Gio Gonzalez ($12, $15), Ervin Santana ($11, $14), Nick Blackburn ($1, $3).

Once again, I wound up spending more on pitching then I would have liked, although unlike in 2009 I didn't spend at all right out of the gate. Price isn't the guy I thought I'd wind up with as my ace, but he pitched like one last year and has the stuff that makes me confident in him regardless of which division he pitches in. Buchholz is due some regression, but I think that people are being far too negative about him and far down he's going to slip. He's still a good pitcher. Cahill might be the guy here who gets me the most nervous. He's great at what he does, but he does have to rely a good deal on defense and luck and I could see him earning $5 just as easily as I could see him earning $25. I have to admit that Gio is one of my personal favorites and I've owned him on and off in my home league ever since he's been with the A's. He isn't the pitcher who can't find the strike zone anymore and the scariest thing about him is that he could still take another step forward. Bet the upside here. Santana is a pitcher I price enforced who I probably should have left alone. I'm OK with him at this price, but have to admit that his up and down salary scan makes me nervous. I'm fine with Blackburn at $1. With this staff, I might not need him all that much on my active roster.

Relief Pitchers: Andrew Bailey ($19, $21), Octavio Dotel ($7, $9), Dan Wheeler ($1, $3).
Closers were a little more expensive in the A.L. than they were in CBS's N.L. auction the day before, so I was happy to get Bailey at this price. His recovery is going well and he's expected to be ready in time for Spring Training. When he's on, he's lights out. Dotel was yet another guy I was trying to price enforce. He's either a gamble that works out or a gamble that doesn't in an early February auction, but I like his price better than Frank Francisco's or many of the quasi-closers who went for more or into double digits. Wheeler is what he is: a reliable middle reliever who will put up steady earnings. These guys are forgotten in 5x5, but they are needed.

So there is my team. I like the value, but I'm not sure how all the categories are going to work out. I might need to trade a starting pitcher early for some more offense, but the more I look at my squad the more I think I might actually be competitive enough on offense to make this work.

No comments: