CBS Expert Analyst NL-Only 5x5 Results - Second Base

Top of the Class: Chase Utley ($32)

Utley struggled last year, coming back too soon from his injury.  The decline in average, OBP, LD%, etc. is going to have everyone concerned.  Let’s take a different look at Utley.  His H% dropped some from normal levels.  His LD% dropped considerably.  His swings at balls out of the zone increased tremendously, and his Contact % on those swings also increased tremendously.  If you take this subset of numbers, perhaps decline is not the problem.  Chase “chased” a lot of pitches out of the zone and hit them weakly.  Moreover, the injury certainly sapped a little strength.  I’m okay with this bid.

The Second Tier: Dan Uggla ($28), Brandon Phillips ($28), Richie Weeks ($25), Martin Prado ($24), Neil Walker ($23), Kelly Johnson ($22)

Perhaps we can play an old Sesame Street game: which of these doesn’t belong?  Walker was the last full-time second baseman out, and that explains the bid.  $14?  Sure.  Maybe $15 or $16.  $23 is ludicrous.  $28 is a position scarcity price for Phillips; the power didn’t fall off too far, but some issues on the base paths and a lack of RBIs hurt his overall value.  100 runs though, which is nice.  Uggla is, well, poised for a great season in my opinion.  He just moved into a significantly better lineup, and posted the best overall year of his career last year.  The issue with Uggla is always BABIP and average; your guess is as good as mine this year, but the RBI and runs should be well up there again.  Breakout for Richie Weeks last year: FINALLY say the Milwaukee Brewers.  Of course it is the first year he’s sniffed 650 AB, so I wouldn’t count on it happening again.  The problem with Prado is that we are seeing the ceiling, and this price leaves no room for profit.  Yes, I know he hit 40 doubles last year; I do not think they will translate into more HR.  What you see is what you get, and it isn’t all that bad.  Kelly Johnson is an enigma.  I personally don’t think much of him, but if the power is for real, the bid price is a bargain at this position.  I think 2009 is an outlier, and in Arizona, the power could stay (with any type of lineup around him anyway).

The Drop Off: Danny Espinosa ($12), Ty Wigginton ($12), Juan Uribe ($12), Omar Infante ($11)

I talked about Wigginton here, so I will not repeat myself.  Danny Espinosa spells “risk” in Spanish, English and any other language.  In retrospect, I regret this bid more than any other in the CBS auction.  The power/speed combination is such a temptation; the poor fielding and .220 batting average means a trip back to the minors.  I do not love $11 for Uribe in LA, and LA is the big issue…will the power stay?  In terms of counting stats, he’s better than what comes after, but question whether you want to pay $12 for it.  Infante went for $11, I think, because people see what I see: a player who, if the average drops, really doesn’t earn in any other category.  The position flexibility is nice, though, but I just don’t think the BABIP and average are sustainable.

The Getting Uglier: Eric Young, Jr. ($10), Billy Hall ($9), Ryan Theriot ($8), Freddy Sanchez ($6), Skip Schumaker ($6), Orlando Hudson ($6)

The trade rumors and the plethora of middle infielders in Colorado certainly hurt Young’s value.  Young earned $7 in 51 games, and will be a threat to steal 50 in anything resembling full-time play.  The question is, of course, will he get anything near those full-time plate appearances?  Hall is always a question mark, but I think the return of some of the power is for real, and it could really shine in the NL Central.  He looks like he’ll hold the job now that Keppinger is out for at least 6 weeks, and his only competition is Tommy Manzella.  Theriot is going to play in St. Louis, and when Theriot plays, he earns fantasy dollars ($16, $21, $21, $14 the past 4 years).  This is a good price for Theriot and he should earn a solid profit.  Sanchez claims he is healthy.  He grinds out earnings as well, and if he plays close to a full season, he should easily earn this $6.  Schumaker is par at this price.  He really does not generate much in terms of fantasy dollars for any category.  If the average stays down like 2010, he really is not a high quality target.  Hudson is a decent buy at this price.  Note the decline over the past few years, however; perhaps this is the beginning of the mid-thirties “fall off the cliff” for second basemen.

The Crap (Shoot): Clint Barmes ($5), Blake DeWitt ($3), Jeff Baker ($2), Jerry Hairston ($1), Luis Castillo ($1)

Hairston may be the best buy of this group, given the potential struggles of Espinosa at second base.  Even with the low average, he can rack up fantasy earnings pretty quickly.  Barmes could be a good buy, even at $5.  I don’t expect 2009 numbers, but something between 2008 and 2010 is certainly reasonable.  Check out the average and the BABIP, particularly for a speed guy; there is an element of bad luck at work.  The good news for Castillo owners is that he might earn $1 just while pinch-running.  This is low-risk, decent reward if there is any rebound at all.