Saturday, February 19, 2011

2011 CBSSports.com A.L.-Only Analysts League: DH


In an A.L.-only league, designated hitter prices aren't so much a matter of value as they are a matter of strategy. In some years, there are only a small handful of hitters who do not qualify at an on-the-field position. In other years, there are many DH-only hitters who must go into your DH slot. 2011 is one of those years where there are a lot of DH only hitters.

When there are a lot of DHs, prices typically fall for at least a couple of them. Roto teams run out of money and/or open spots and as a result a DH who you thought might go for $5-6 falls in for $1-2.

Try to keep all of this in mind before assessing the prices below.

DOUBLE DIGITS

Vlad's bounced back more last year in Roto (earnings) than in real life (OPS). The good news for Vlad owners is that he's moving from one great hitting environment to another and he should continue to a solid, productive player...even if he doesn't have another $30+ season in him. Scott had the best year of his career last season. He might not quite be a full-time player if the Orioles start running Felix Pie out there in left field from time to time, but even over 450 AB Scott could still pop 25 HR with a .260 BA.

HIGH SINGLE DIGITS

Lind crashed and burned last year primarily due to a horrific performance against LHP. He was somewhat unlucky on BABIP in general and very unlucky against LHP, but when you strike out 38% of the time against lefties, it isn't all luck. I expect some kind of bounce back from Lind, but the risk here is that he gets pushed into a platoon if he continues to suck against southpaws. After yet another slow start, Ortiz went out and had yet another solid season. He had a little luck on balls in play, so I'd look more for a .250-.260 average, but 25-30 HR shouldn't be ruled out from Papi. He can still rake when he's going well. Matsui has remained a pretty consistent hitter even in his mid-30s. He's not going to put up 600 PAs anymore, but he's still good for 20-25 HR. Oakland will suppress his power somewhat, but keep in mind that Anaheim wasn't a big time hitting environment last year either. Godzilla should also remain solid as long as he avoids the injury bug.

THE DOLLAR BIN

Thome is the huge bargain here. I'm not sure how often he's going to play, but as he showed last year, he could still be a significant producer even if he only gets 300-350 PAs. He's obviously getting up there, but I wouldn't rule out another 20 HR season. Cust defied his reputation last year by hitting for less power and more average. The BA was the product of a 387 BABIP - a rate that would be unsustainable for a super fast runner, let alone a slow-footed DH type like Cust. If Cust reverts to .230 and the power doesn't come back, he could disappear from Seattle quickly. Hafner had another OK year that was still miles removed from his 2004-2006 peak. His second-half surge was fueled by a 404 BABIP Post All-Star, but his bat the quickest I had seen it since 2007. A return to his peak years is still next to impossible, and Hafner is going to have to prove he can stay on the field for a full season. Johnson ripped up AAA Durham after a triumphant return from Japan and then was his ordinary self after the Rays reward him with a call-up. Johnson still could be a better option than Casey Kotchman at first for the Rays, but don't be fooled by some of the numbers community's excitement. The walks are great, but no matter how you slice it and dice it, Johnson's MLB production last year was reminiscent of his uninspiring 2006 with the A's. He'll clearly be a profit maker at $1 if he's starting, but a sub-800 OPS at 1B isn't going to make for a great starter for the Rays or for your squad.

3 comments:

T.N. said...

Mike - AL-Only keeper question for you.

10 team AL-only keeper league, you can keep up to 10 players. I won't get into the details about long-term contracts, but here is my situation:
I have the following players to choose from (prices in the parentheses) -
Chris Perez (1); David Price (13); Jeremey Hellickson (2); Colby Lewis (5); Nick Swisher (8); Mike Napoli (7); Frank Francisco (1); Kevin Gregg (3); Koji Uehara (1); Shin Soo Choo (23); Dustin Pedroia (25); Miguel Cabrera (41); Justin Smoak (2).

Perez, Price, Hellickson, and Lewis are no-brainers, as is Francisco if he's officially closing in Toronto. Gregg or Uehara would be fantastic if either had the Baltimore job locked up. My problem is this: do I keep Perez, Price, Hellickson, Lewis, Francisco, Uehara, and Gregg? That would be 7 pitchers, and only 3 hitters. Any input would be appreciated. Thanks.

Mike Gianella said...

5x5?

T.N. said...

Yep, 5x5.