Typical CBS prices for these top two salary guys. The numbers last year look much like 2008, and I see nothing in the scan to suggest that he will do less. The problem is, when you bid $49 for him, you build in a decent-size loss. Even playing stars and scrubs, there is no justification for the price. You want to go to par (since we know you won’t get him at a bargain). Tulowitzki had a September to remember, posting 15 home runs and 40 runs batted in. Before we get excited and bid $48 on his (oh, wait, too late), let’s keep in mind that he had 12 home runs and 55 runs batted in coming in to September. Bidding $48 for a guy with limited speed and with some issues coming into that huge September is absurd.
The Next Tier: Jose Reyes ($32), Stephen Drew ($24), Jimmy Rollins ($23)
The infirmary will control value for two of these three shortstop entrants. Reyes, as we know, has really struggled with injuries for the past two years. The Mets have ignored him in terms of a long-term deal, and I think Reyes will be playing with a huge chip on his shoulder. Keep in mind, though, that Reyes was at three-quarters speed last year and still earned close to this bid price. The upward spike in K/W and drop in OBP are a little bit of cause for concern, but perhaps he is trying to be a little bit different hitter. I do not think Reyes is going to steal 60+ again, but this is a guy who could earn you a decent profit if the bid is closer to $28-$29. Rollins is 5 years older and is also playing for a contract, likely his last large one. The decline is evident in the scans…Rollins is not a $40 player. On the flip side, Rollins is not a $13 player, and I think the doom and gloom is premature. If you expect a 15/85/30/.270 line, then you are on the nose with my thinking, and should bid accordingly.
I set Drew out separately, since he is not injured (unlike his older brother). Drew showed improvement in most parts of his game last year, and there is no reason to think that, at age 27, the progression will stop. With better pitch selection and identification, a few more homers and a few more steals, Drew could certainly earn his bid. There is little room for profit at this price, but I think you bought yourself stats at close to par.
New Kids on the Block: Starlin Castro ($21), Ian Desmond ($19)
I am not sure what to say about Castro…what a phenomenal campaign at his age. Yes, he had a swoon, but coming into an age 21 year, the future is very bright. The price does not leave a lot of upside room, though, particularly in light of the high BABIP and low slugging percentage. Keep in mind, though, that Castro had 39 extra base hits as a 20 year old in the major leagues. With a little better work on the basepaths, Castro could be a $20 earner this year. Desmond has a glove of stone with a pretty productive bat and feet. There are warning signs all over the place, however, and this bid may be a little high: terrible K/W; terrible OBP; terrible slugging percentage; very high BABIP. These factors all lead me to believe in regressions for his sophomore year.
The Mid-Tier: Rafael Furcal ($17), Miguesl Tejada ($13), Juan Uribe ($12), Jason Bartlett ($11)
Furcal had a nice year last year. His efficiency in stolen bases impressed me – he is saving some wear and tear on his body with better selectivity. I don’t know if we can count on a .300 average again, but Furcal should earn near this price. Tejada has moved to a more difficult hitters park. The earnings go with the average: hit .260 and he earns in the mid-teens; hit .290 and he earns $20. The K/W is getting better year by year, but the huge drop in slugging should be a cause for concern. I wrote about Uribe here, so I will not repeat myself. Bartlett is new to our NL-only players. Last season is more the Bartlett that you should expect, as his earnings were more consistent with his career numbers. He brings good speed to the table, but his selectivity and burst speed last year were called into question. I think this is reflected in the price, and he should go about here in most leagues.
What About These Guys: Clint Barmes ($5), Yuniesky Betancourt ($4), Edgar Renteria ($3), Alex Gonzalez ($3)
While I wrote about Barmes briefly here, I wanted to touch on him again. If you are looking for the 2008-2009 Clint Barmes, I will let you know when I find him. Since Keppinger is hurt, and since Barmes’ other primary competition is Tommy Manzella, this is not a bad place to drop a couple of dollars, particularly with that intriguing power/speed combination. Betancourt is a player who we love to hate, but if the power is real (and he is in the right ballpark for it), he could easily be a double-digit bargain at this price. Renteria is “behind” Janish on the depth chart, but if Janish struggles at all Renteria will garner 350 at-bats and earn you a small profit. Alex Gonzalez, if he plays, is another bargain. Since the plan is for the Braves to start Prado in left field, it seems that Gonzalez at this price is a nice upside play. He will not go for $3 in your home leagues.
We’re At the Bottom Now: Paul Janish ($1), Ozzie Martinez ($1), Nick Punto ($1), Jerry Hairston ($1), Everth Cabrera ($1)
Janish is the anointed starter, but no one seems to believe. With Renteria behind him, if Janish should falter, I could easily see Janish losing at-bats. Remember he earned $5 in 200 at-bats last year. I’ll talk about Ozzie Martinez in three years. Punto could earn a couple bucks just from pinch-running appearances. See my upside comment on Hairston here. I think you can safely pass on Cabrera; he should be in the minors.
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