2011 CBSSports.com A.L.-Only Analysts League: OF (Part I)

In CBS, outfield is where most of the bargains come. If you've been reading this entire series to date, you know that owners in this league pay big money for both the top hitters and for real or perceived position scarcity. 

Outfield is where the money stops flowing. This means that there are bargains to be had. The challenge as a Rotisserie owner is figuring out where to stop so that your bargains are better than everyone else's.

THE DWINDLING ELITES

Carl Crawford $41, Nelson Cruz $40, Josh Hamilton $38.

I don't know if Fenway is going to turn Crawford into a player with more HR power or if he's going to steal less. Given his earnings history it doesn't matter; he's earned $35-40 for years now with the exception of his injury-riddled 2008. I'd pay $40 here with confidence and worry about the exact composition of the stat line later. Cruz could earn this if he stays on the field all year, but of course that's the rub. I'd still pay Cruz $30 and live with the loss if he only got 200-250 AB; I don't think I could live with that same hit if I paid $40. Hamilton is a tremendous hitter, but don't pay him for what he did last year. A 390 BABIP is not sustainable. Even if you like Hamilton this year, assume a .320 batting average and go from there. I don't mind paying Hamilton a little more than Cruz, but here too you have to be mindful of the injury risk.

THE NEAR ELITES

Shin-Soo Choo $34, Alex Rios $31, B.J. Upton $29.

Choo is my kind of player: a five-category guy whose price isn't out of reach because he doesn't do one particular thing exceptionally. His BABIP has run high for three years in a row so it's hard to call him lucky at this point. I wouldn't necessarily expect a power spike, but I can live with another $30 Choo season. Rios is one of those better in Roto than real life players. His bounce back season last year looked much more like his 2008 than his 2006-2007. Last year's "recovery" was mostly fueled by one great month (May). The steals will make him a $25 player unless he completely craters, but don't pay Rios like he's an elite. Upton's been disappointing for two years running now, but he's still only 26. The old John Benson Age 26 with Experience rule might apply here, though Upton has looked like a mess at times the last two seasons. Pay for the 40+ steals and hope for more elsewhere.

HIGH $20s

Jacoby Ellsbury $28, Nick Markakis $28, Ichiro Suzuki $28, Brett Gardner $27, Torii Hunter $27, Juan Pierre $27.

There is a lot of speed in the American League this year. Ellsbury is the riskiest guy in this group at the moment, but he also has the highest ceiling. Batting ninth will tamp down his value somewhat, but if Ellsbury is 100% he could steal 50-60 bases, pop 10 HR and score a ton of runs as the Sox stealth leadoff hitter. Markakis has slipped the last four years but somehow still managed to earn in the low $20s last year. The RBI might bounce back with a stronger line-up around him, but I'd still avoid paying more than what he earned last year. 2007 looks like the outlier now. Ichiro goes relatively cheap every year. One of those years age is going to catch him...but a host of fantasy writers have been saying this for 3-4 years now. Even if the speed slips, it's hard to see Ichiro not hitting .300, scoring runs, and providing a little bit in HR/RBI. Gardner went from looking like a borderline starting OF to a legitimate leadoff threat for the Yankees. His walk percentage increased, he started using his speed more as a hitter, and his SB% means that even on the Yankees he'll keep running. He is a legitimate player and not just a one-trick pony - I didn't even mention his defense. Hunter has been justifiably panned as a bad contract risk for the Angels, but in Roto he's one of those consistent players who is worth his mid-20 bid every year. The steals might finally disappear after his 9-for-21 success rate in 2010, but you can pretty safely pencil him for a 20/80/80/.275 year this season. Pierre's game is absolutely nothing but speed, but 60+ SB and 100 runs go a long way in 5x5. The White Sox will continue to play Pierre almost every day, and if you can get your power from elsewhere, Pierre is well worth it at this price.

THE LOW $20s

Adam Jones $24, Delmon Young $24, Rajai Davis $23, Nick Swisher $23, Curtis Granderson $21, Vernon Wells $20.

On the surface, Jones looks like a breakout candidate, but he looked like a mess at times last year. His power evaporated in the second half as he lost what little selectivity he had and started popping the ball up more. Jones is only 25 so there might still be some improvement in the offing, but I wouldn't bet more than the low $20s. Young looks like a legitimate breakout candidate who could crack the $30s this season. He tailed off a bit in the second half and never met a walk he liked, but it wouldn't surprise me to see Young hit 30 HR this year, even with half his games coming at Target Field. Davis isn't priced like the speed players in the prior tier for a reason; his 320 OBP is barely acceptable for a one-trick pony and if he slips anymore then Scott Podsednik might come calling for Davis' job. The 50+ steals make Davis a threat to earn $30, but he's a streaky player and when his bat disappears his value does too. Moving to turf might help, though. Swisher's 2010 has been called a fluke, but he took the bat off his shoulder last year and started swinging at more pitches. The result was better numbers across the board, and while the batting average might not come near .280 again, Swisher remains a legitimate 30/90 threat, particularly in Yankee Stadium. Granderson didn't exactly light the world on fire last year, but his numbers against LHP evolved from "putrid" to "marginally acceptable." He earned in the low $20s despite missing time last year with a groin injury. Granderson could earn $25-30 this year. Even if he's an imperfect baseball player, that doesn't matter in Roto. Wells bounced back last year, but he was still only OK after an incredible April. The change of venue from Toronto to Anaheim won't help. Wells is still 100% so at this price he still might be fine, but I wouldn't necessarily count on another 30 HR season.

HIGH TEENS

Carlos Quentin $19, Grady Sizemore $18, Travis Snider $17, Denard Span $17, Bobby Abreu $16.

What you see is what you get at this point with Quentin: a high power, low batting average guy whose BABIP can no longer be viewed as an outlier. If you can take the average hit, Quentin is fine to buy for the 25 HR production, but I can't see him hitting better than .250. Sizemore is about as high risk/high reward as you can possibly get. If the speed doesn't come back, Sizemore could still be good for 25+ HR, but early reports make Sizemore iffy for Opening Day. Who knows if this price is good or not in February? Snider's power upside is obvious. The extremely high whiff rate makes him risky, though, and there's still the possibility that he hits .190 in April and winds up in AAA. I like him $2-3 less here. Span's BABIP luck completely regressed and then some last year. I'm more concerned that what little power he had dissolved. He doesn't run quite enough that he can't contribute elsewhere, and if he doesn't bounce back to his 2009 levels I'm concerned that he starts losing playing time in a crowded OF. Abreu has always been a consistent performer, but last year you could finally see some of the first signs of the inevitable decline. He went from being one of the best fastball hitters in the game to merely a good fastball hitter, a possible sign that his bat is slowing down. Abreu should still be a decent play, but I can see him earning less than $20 this year...something that didn't seem possible in years past.

MID-TEENS

Coco Crisp $15, Austin Jackson $15, Ryan Raburn $15, Jason Kubel $14, Peter Bourjos $13. 

Crisp could be a monster at this price if he ever stays on the field for a full season. He was successful on 32-of-35 steal attempts, and even had a mild power spike last year. I'd be comfortable paying $20 if I believed he was 100% on Auction Day. I like Jackson more than most, but have to agree with his detractors that all the speed in the world shouldn't have equaled a 396 BABIP last year. His strikeout rate means that a .260 batting average is just as likely as the .293 he put up last year and Jackson is still a work in progress on the base paths. Long term I like him a lot, but a consolidation season in 2011 is probable. Raburn looked like a monster the last two months of 2010, but I'd temper expectations somewhat if he's a full-time player. Most of the extra AB he'll see will be against RHP, against whom he was solid but not spectacular. A 20 HR season is possible but I wouldn't pay for more than that. Kubel mashes RHP and flails against LHP. What you see is what you get: a decent poor option with a subpar batting average as a result. Bourjos' upside is 20/30, but his downside is a super slow start and a one-way ticket back to Salt Lake City. His raw minor league numbers look impressive, but I'm guessing the MLE of an 862 OPS at Salt Lake isn't pretty. This price has plenty of allure, but you could also wind up crashing and burning as a cheesy radio announcer wails about the humanity of the situation.