TOP OF THE HEAP
Evan Longoria $44.
This is an overpay, but unlike some of the other CBS overpays it might be all that much of a stretch. Longoria is 25 years old, has seen his Roto earnings jump an average of $5 each year for the last two years, and could very well put up a monster four-and-a-half category season. I'd limit my bid to the mid-$30s in a start over, but if Longoria steals 15-20 bases it wouldn't surprise me at all to see him earn around $40 this year. It's scary to consider that he's already one of the 10 best offensive players in baseball and we may not have even seen his peak performance yet.
THE NEXT BEST THINGS
Alex Rodriguez $34, Jose Bautista $32, Adrian Beltre $30.
Was A-Rod's 2010 an off year or the beginning of the inevitable decline? Of greater concern is that he hasn't cleared 600 plate appearances since 2007. Players of A-Rod's caliber are hard to gauge. He could decline fairly quickly, put up one more great season before beginning his descent, or defy the odds and put up 2-4 more great seasons. This price is a little high, but probably OK if you're willing to accept that you might only get a $25-30 return if he doesn't bounce back. It's almost impossible to predict what's going to happen next with Bautista because there is virtually zero precedent for a hitter swatting 50+ HR for the first time at Age 29 or later after never hitting 20 or more in a single season. The best case for Bautista this year seems like 35-40 HR with a .240-.250 batting average. That would make him about a $25 player. I don't know if I'd pay that price for Jose, but someone will. Beltre cynics will point to 2004 and say that he's only great in walk years. I disagree. He had an injury plagued 2009, was in a terrible hitting environment in Safeco for years, and was in a strong line-up all year in Boston. Even if Beltre loses some of the power, he'll get some of it back in Texas. Even if there is a fall off, playing in Arlington will mask it quite a bit.
THE FALL BACK POSITIONS
Mark Reynolds $21, Edwin Encarnacion $17, Danny Valencia $15, Michael Young $14.
Reynolds was a mess less last year. The two big parts of his banner 2009 - prolific base stealing and production against RHP - both evaporated in 2010. Reynolds had a horrific September and a change of scenery was probably the best thing for everyone involved. I could see Reynolds bouncing back somewhat, but even then I'd assume a .230 BA and recognize that I'm digging myself a category hole if I buy him. Encarnacion is slated to DH for the Jays this year. He can probably earn this if he can stay on the field, but that's been a problem for the last two years. Given the Jays lack of organizational depth, Encarnacion will get every chance to stick here, but I'd drop my price a few ticks. If he repeats last year, Valencia could earn over $20. He looks more like a .270 hitter to me, though, and he doesn't profile as a hitter where the power is coming (playing in Minnesota obviously doesn't help). The good news is that his contact rates gradually increased throughout the minors and Valencia should remain solid enough to hold onto a job, even if only as a capable regular. Young's price plummeted because you can't keep players traded to the National League in CBS. He's a consistent $20-25 earner. Young is the kind of guy who gets maligned in real life but there is no doubting he is a productive Roto player when he's on the field.
BOTTOM OF THE BARREL STARTERS
Kevin Kouzmanoff $10, Brandon Inge $9, Brent Morel $6, Jhonny Peralta $6, Mark Teahen $6, Wilson Betemit $4, Alberto Callaspo $4.
Kouzmanoff is an ugly option in reality but as long as you can tolerate the poor batting average he's a fairly reliable power source. He's a relatively safe pick at $10. Inge is another ugly batting average guy but his power has barely pushed him into double-digit earnings with the exception of 2009. I'm not a huge fan of this price since there's not much upside but I suppose it's OK. Morel and Teahen will battle for the White Sox 3B job in camp this spring. Morel's minor league numbers look solid but don't speak well to a lot of power potential. His high hit percentages in the minors didn't look sustainable, and sure enough they cratered in the Majors. I think Teahen could win the job and Morel might wind up in the minors for a spell. Teahen is what he is; 2006 simply has to be viewed as a fluke now. He's a limited power option who doesn't quite hit for enough batting average to make up for that. He'll earn more than $6 if he starts all year, but whether it is Morel or an import, the White Sox will probably try to upgrade at some point.
Peralta's value increases a little because of the SS/3B eligibility. Even if 2009-2010 is Peralta's new normal this a nice price for him; a $15 season is possible even if it isn't likely if Peralta can reclaim some of his 2007-2008. Betemit was tearing the cover off of the ball last year, but he's teased us all before. This bid is nice because there's mostly reward at this price, but keep in mind that he might wind up on the bench or off the team by mid-May if he doesn't produce. Callaspo's production plummeted last year, and while he currently is a regular the Angels could always give Brandon Wood another whirl or give Macier Izturis more time at 3B.
Peralta's value increases a little because of the SS/3B eligibility. Even if 2009-2010 is Peralta's new normal this a nice price for him; a $15 season is possible even if it isn't likely if Peralta can reclaim some of his 2007-2008. Betemit was tearing the cover off of the ball last year, but he's teased us all before. This bid is nice because there's mostly reward at this price, but keep in mind that he might wind up on the bench or off the team by mid-May if he doesn't produce. Callaspo's production plummeted last year, and while he currently is a regular the Angels could always give Brandon Wood another whirl or give Macier Izturis more time at 3B.
THE ENDGAME
Lonnie Chisenhall $1, Andy LaRoche $1, Felipe Lopez $1, Mike Moutsakas $1.
These are typical endgame plays in an extremely deep auction. Chisenhall and Moutsakas might or might not be up this year. I like Moutsakas' chances to make it up this year better, though the Indians Jayson Nix/Jason Donald combo isn't exactly an impenetrable wall. Lopez will probably back-up most of the Rays infield. LaRoche might or might not make the A's. He could do anything between disappear and earn $6-8 as a back up if he sticks.
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