Hall of Fame Club: Albert Pujols ($49)
This is a pretty typical price for CBS, give or take a dollar or two in each direction. It amazes me that you can pay $49 for a player, and typically pay for over $40 in stats, year in and year out. Taking a loss on Pujols while earning those stats seems logical, even if I refuse to pay that much for a player…this is where you play stars and scrubs, as opposed to Robinson Cano’s price in the National League.
Honorable Mention, Hall of Fame Club: Joey Votto ($45)
It is tough to envision Joey Votto outperforming last year, though it is certainly possible given his age and make-up. My point about stars and scrubs is well taken here, however: without a consistent track record and coming off of a career year, if you overbid your sheet price by $9-$10, what can you hope to gain? Now, Votto does have a little speed to go with that power and average, but in your start-over leagues, you should not be paying $45.
The Twin-Tater Club: Prince Fielder ($35), Ryan Howard ($32)
Fielder and Howard seem as though they are always discussed together, so why stop now? To be honest, I do not like either of these bids in 5x5 – these are closer to 4x4 bids (with Fielder still pretty high). One thing both of these guys have in common – they are coming off disappointing years. The Brewers are in it to win it this year, so I suspect that diminishes the trade risk for those of you penalized by trades to the other league. The significant drop in slugging percentage, coupled with a drop in OBP, is cause for concern. If you believe in the Brett Saberhagen Doctrine and the Walk-Year Doctrine, however, Fielder is your man. Howard also carries some risk. I like the repeat of the average in the .270s. Query, however, who will be protecting Howard in the lineup. He is also the “late-bloomer” first baseman – is this the year the drop-off continues?
The Twenty-Somethings: Ike Davis ($22), Carlos Pena ($21), Gaby Sanchez ($20), Aubrey Huff ($20), Carlos Lee ($20)
Just a note – I will likely be talking about the higher-salaried multi-position players at each position, so sorry if you see some repetition. Note that Huff and Lee both qualify in the OF and 1B in most leagues this year.
Mike correctly predicted that Davis would go for too much after last season’s performance, and I agree that $22 is too much in 5x5. I like the K/W, and the H% is consistent with his minor league performance, so it is not difficult to see him improving slightly on his numbers. In terms of value, however, it is difficult to pay $22 when it is a crapshoot as to whether he can earn it. Pena may benefit from a change of venue (and from a trip out of the AL East). On the flip side, he now gets Wainwright, Carpenter, Greinke, et al. He is a true decliner, and this price is outrageous in light of risk and recent past performance. The Sanchez price is close to par bid, and is the best price so far for first basemen. Sanchez held his own last year at the plate, and likely outperformed analyst expectations in the power department. The K/W is acceptable, and Sanchez also popped 37 doubles. I see some room for improvement in the power category and there might be room for profit at this price. Huff is at his Patton & Co. 5x5 bid prices, but I would never pay that price. It is just as likely Huff will earn $10-$15 as it is he will have another “break-out” season at age 34. Lee is okay at $20. There is an interesting post about Carlos Lee’s hit percentage on line drives and its relation to bad luck and his poor BABIP. Lee should earn $20 this year, but I would prefer not to pay par value.
The Teens: James Loney ($13), Ty Wigginton ($12), Garrett Atkins ($11), Lance Berkman ($11), Adam LaRoche ($10)
I love Loney at $13. Put his numbers last year in context. His LD% went up, but his fly balls went down. He swung at a lot more pitches, including a lot more out of the strike zone. These are correctable issues, combined with some bad luck. He won’t hit 30 home runs, but he’ll earn a profit at this price. Wigginton might be a little high at this price, but his 1B, 2B, 3B eligibility means great flexibility in fantasy and 400-450AB with the Rockies. The bid on Atkins is pretty bad. There is no explanation for his poor 2009 and 2010, other than he fell off a cliff. Berkman at $11 is a nice price. The trick here is: can Lance stay healthy? He showed in 400 AB with the Yankees that he can still be a little productive, though a bit weak for corner numbers. Adam LaRoche is, well, a very, very nice buy at $10. He has earned close to $20 for 5 years running, and there is little reason to expect much less this year.
The Rookies: Freddie Freeman ($12), Brandon Belt ($10), Juan Miranda ($7), Brett Wallace ($6) Yonder Alonso ($1)
Freeman, Miranda and Wallace are almost guaranteed to play this year. The Braves appear committed to Freeman, and there is a lot to be excited about here. His season at AAA at age 20 just makes the mouth water at the possibilities this year. I like $10 a little better, but $12 is not outrageous; it just limits potential profit. Miranda appears to have the inside track on the Arizona job; he didn’t show much with the Yankees last year and, overall, I’m not a fan. Wallace could be the starting first baseman for the Astros, but for how long? His inability to make consistent contact tempers power expectations. Decent risk at $6 though. The year of Brandon Belt will be determined in the first two months of the AAA season; if he hits, the Giants will find a spot for him. If Alonso is up this year, it will be with another team.
The Rest: Xavier Nady ($9), Lyle Overbay ($7), Melvin Mora ($5), Todd Helton ($2), Daniel Murphy ($2), Jorge Cantu ($1), Eric Hinske ($1)
There are a few dual position guys tucked away here that will spend most of their time at 3B (Mora, Cantu) or in the outfield (Murphy, Hinske). The bench might be better for some of them, but I'll talk about them at their primary positions. Nady will likely get a lot of ABs in the outfield, and this $9 price could be good. The value disappears, though, if the power has disappeared. Overbay painfully grinds out his dollars; it makes him a perfect Pirate, as the Pirates will also be painful to watch. Helton at $2 is a decent risk; if he plays at all, he’ll at least earn the $2. You really don’t want him to be your starting first baseman in fantasy.
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