Shortstop seemed like the one position in the American League where the CBS bidders ignored position scarcity to some extent and recognized the downside. Not a single hitter here cracked $30, the only non-DH position where this happened. It seems that bidders recognized the limitations on the best hitters at the position and instead wound up pushing some of the shortstops in the middle up a few ticks.
THE NON-ELITE ELITES
Elvis Andrus $27, Derek Jeter $23, Alexei Ramirez $23.
This price for Andrus would only make sense if he was going to steal 50-60 bases this year. There are still a lot of holes in his game, and last year was a step down from his rookie season. Yes, he's only 22 years old so some improvement is more than likely, but the improvement is probably going to be slow and steady and not all occur at once. Last year also left me wondering if Andrus is more likely to be a non-power type than a guy who is going to eventually evolve into a 15-20 HR player. Jeter's been around long enough now that even in the freewheeling CBS environment he only went for $1 more than what he earned in 2010. Yes, decline is likely, but if Jeter gets 600+ AB again his floor is probably $15 in earnings. Whether or not his body holds up is a legitimate question; past health does not guarantee future health in your mid-30s, particularly at a demanding position like middle infield. Ramirez's 744 OPS looks somewhat uninspiring, but he's one of the best non-elite shortstops around...and both elite shortstops currently reside in the National League. Ramirez's 2010 was smack dab in the middle of his 2008-2009 campaigns, and that's what I'd bid on again this year. He quietly contributes across all five categories and should earn around $20.
DOUBLE DIGITS
J.J. Hardy $15, Asdrubal Cabrera $13, Alcides Escobar $13, Cliff Pennington $12, Jed Lowrie $11, Marco Scutaro $10.
If Hardy bounces all the way back to his 2008-2009 levels, then this price is a bargain. That seems to be asking a lot, though. The average returned somewhat last year but the power didn't. Moving from the worst HR environment in baseball last year to one of the best will help, but I'm still not 100% convinced the power will come automatically with the change of venue. Cabrera is still relatively young, but outside of his 17 steals in 2009 he hasn't really produced much in terms of Roto. This price seems pretty safe if Cabrera stays on the field but doesn't look like an upside play. Everyone is down on Escobar. However, he was one of the unluckiest BABIP players in baseball and there's still a chance the steals will come. You don't want to pay too much for the upside, but in keeper leagues you don't want to let Escobar go too cheaply either. Pennington was a great Roto player last year thanks to the 29 steals. His 687 OPS would give me pause at any other position, but Pennington does enough with the glove and on the bases to keep his job as long as he's not hitting .210. He's OK at this price. Lowrie and Scutaro can't both be good buys. If I had to guess, I'd say that Lowrie will be the starter by June at the latest and Scoot will wind up spelling everyone around the infield expect for Adrian Gonzalez. Lowrie looked great when he was on the field last year and even if he can't keep up the blistering pace he set in 2010 he would still be an asset even with an 800-850 OPS. Scutaro is more like many of the other A.L. SS: a move-the-chains kind of guy who could earn $13-15 but doesn't have much more upside than that and definitely does have downside, particularly if he's stopped running for good.
HIGH SINGLE DIGITS
Erick Aybar $9, Yunel Escobar $7, Alexi Casilla $5.
Aybar ran more last year, which is all his owners have ever wanted of him since he made the bigs. But his average and RBI dropped, and while Aybar earned double-digits, it was still hard to view him as anything but a disappointment. He should continue as the starter, so if he can bring his RBI back and even hit .270-.280, he should be a slight bargain at this price. Escobar's a bargain at this price if he plays all year, but I wouldn't get too excited. While the batting average returned in Toronto the power didn't, despite the fact that the venue should have helped. Escobar's bat looked slow all year last year. Maybe he'll bounce back, but I wouldn't bet more than $10-11 to find out. Casilla should have the inside track on a middle infield job in Minnesota, but his track record so far doesn't make him a good bet. He does nothing but steal bases, and he doesn't even do enough of that to get me excited enough to go more than $2-3.
THE CRAPSHOOT
Brendan Ryan $2, Ramon Santiago $1, Jack Wilson $1, Brandon Wood $1.
If Ryan plays all year long, he could be a bargain at this price. He had an unlucky BABIP last year and his LD% was barely lower than what he put up in 2009. A .260 batting average and 15 steals for $2 is a possibility. The only catch here is that he could lose his job to Dustin Ackley sooner rather than later. Santiago has been mentioned as part of the scrum for the Tigers 2B job, but it's far more likely he'll be a middle infield back up once again for Detroit. He's fine at $1 in A.L.-only leagues, but you'll want to make sure you have two productive players at your other MI slots. Hamstring and hand injuries wiped out much of Wilson's 2010, but he wasn't doing all that much when he was on the field anyway. Either Wilson or Ryan will lose playing time when Ackley comes up, and Wilson has far less Roto upside than Ryan even when he is playing. Wood is out of options, but even so the Angels might just cut bait with him. He had plenty of chances in the Majors last year to prove himself and tanked. Even in a deep A.L.-only, he might just be a waste of a slot.
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