Sometimes I answer questions well. Other times I don't quite get to what my readers are asking:
If N.L. pitcher prices went down because of the exit of Cliff Lee, Zack Greinke, etc, then I'd suspect that A.L. pitcher prices would go up ...
But, if N.L. pitcher prices went down because of a general trend of "expert" players to pay less for pitching, then I'd expect A.L. pitcher prices would also go down...
I suspected when I wrote about the prices in the CBS N.L. auction that I'd get this question. In one-league Roto leagues, the player populations get richer or poorer depending upon free agent signings and trades. While league-wide earnings are always going to be the same if you're using a draft-valuation model, the average hitter or pitcher in each league can change somewhat depending on the migration patterns.
Before I go to the chart, let's look at who switched leagues who I have valued at $10 or over for the pitchers. This includes pitchers who came over mid-year in 2010, since they weren't in the player pool on Auction Day last year.
Moved to the N.L.: Cliff Lee, Zack Greinke, Shaun Marcum, Matt Garza, J.J. Putz, Daniel Hudson.
Moved to the A.L.: Dan Haren, Edwin Jackson.
CBS A.L. Expert League Bids: Pitchers
CBS 2010 | CBS 2011 | |
Tier #1 | $302 | $308 |
Tier #2 | $218 | $206 |
Tier #3 | $154 | $151 |
Tier #4 | $102 | $103 |
Tier #5 | $71 | $63 |
Tier #6 | $41 | $39 |
Tier #7 | $27 | $20 |
Tier #8 | $15 | $12 |
Tier #9 | $12 | $12 |
Total | $942 | $914 |
The pitching prices drop, but the difference from tier to tier (brackets of 12 pitchers) is negligible. Prices drop a little bit for the second-tier pitchers. Prices actually go up a little bit for the top dogs, though half of that is a $3 raise for Felix Hernandez. Where the prices really slip - relatively speaking - is at the bottom of the heap. Eighty-seven pitchers went for $2 or more in 2010; in 2011, that number dropped to 80. The $2 pitchers start a little sooner in 2011, as do the $3 pitchers. This might sound trivial, but what it means is that more and more of the experts are figuring that a $3 pitcher is just as likely to be as unpredictable as a $1 pitcher. Why pay $3 for that unpredictability when you can pay $1?
So who are the $20+ hitters who migrated?
Moved to the A.L.: Adrian Gonzalez, Adam Dunn, Mark Reynolds, Derrek Lee.
Moved to the N.L.: None.
CBS N.L. Expert League Bids: Hitters
CBS 2010 | CBS 2011 | |
Tier #1 | $447 | $482 |
Tier #2 | $351 | $360 |
Tier #3 | $300 | $303 |
Tier #4 | $243 | $248 |
Tier #5 | $200 | $207 |
Tier #6 | $168 | $174 |
Tier #7 | $132 | $133 |
Tier #8 | $101 | $104 |
Tier #9 | $69 | $77 |
Tier #10 | $55 | $51 |
Tier #11 | $41 | $27 |
Tier #12 | $27 | $12 |
Tier #13 | $14 | $12 |
Tier #14 | $12 | $12 |
Totals | $2,160 | $2,202 |
Prices do go up, but almost all of the money flows to the top. Tiers #2-9 all see incremental gains, and the poor get poorer. The crapshoot started somewhat earlier in CBS this year.
This has much more to do with the freewheeling nature of the CBS auction than with any kind of pricing trend. I noted in 2010 that CBS's prices on the top hitters seemed to be coming back to Earth, but in 2011 they once again shot for the moon.
Top 12 prices 2011: Robinson Cano $49, Miguel Cabrera $48, Evan Longoria $44, Adrian Gonzalez $42, Carl Crawford $41, Nelson Cruz $40, Josh Hamilton $38, Mark Teixeira $38, Adam Dunn $38, Dustin Pedroia $35, Kevin Youkilis $35, Shin-Soo Choo $34. Top 12 Total Salaries: $482.
Top 13 prices 2010: Joe Mauer $45, Alex Rodriguez $41, Jacoby Ellsbury $41, Miguel Cabrera $40, Mark Teixeira $40, Ian Kinsler $39, Evan Longoria $38, Carl Crawford $37, Justin Morneau $32, Dustin Pedroia $32, Brian Roberts $31, Ichiro Suzuki $31. Top 13 Total Salaries: $447. Top 12 Earnings: $273.
Top 12 prices 2009: Grady Sizemore $51, Alex Rodriguez $50, Ian Kinsler $44, Mark Teixeira $43, Carl Crawford $41, Josh Hamilton $41, Miguel Cabrera $40, Evan Longoria $40, Justin Morneau $40, Dustin Pedroia $40, B.J. Upton $39, Matt Holliday $37. Top 12 Total Salaries: $506. Top 12 Earnings: $275.
This has nothing to do with more hitting or less hitting in the league, but rather CBS's propensity to spend a large chunk of their money on the big hitters compared to the other expert leagues.
2010 A.L. Expert League Bids: Hitters
CBS | LABR | Tout Wars | ||
Tier #1 | $447 | $394 | $377 | |
Tier #2 | $351 | $311 | $307 | |
Tier #3 | $300 | $273 | $277 | |
Tier #4 | $243 | $233 | $248 | |
Tier #5 | $200 | $197 | $204 | |
Tier #6 | $168 | $179 | $178 | |
Tier #7 | $132 | $154 | $156 | |
Tier #8 | $101 | $129 | $138 | |
Tier #9 | $69 | $95 | $119 | |
Tier #10 | $55 | $69 | $79 | |
Tier #11 | $41 | $45 | $45 | |
Tier #12 | $27 | $32 | $29 | |
Tier #13 | $14 | $20 | $15 | |
Tier #14 | $12 | $12 | $12 | |
Totals | $2,160 | $2,143 | $2,184 |
I ran this chart in late January 2011. CBS definitely spends more on the perceived top hitters. This phenomenon isn't limited to 2010, either. In 2009, Tout Wars spent $397 on the 12 most expensive A.L. hitters and LABR spent $390. In 2008, LABR spent $419 on the 12 most expensive A.L. hitters while Tout Wars spent $397. While there is some fluctuation in LABR/Tout based on the talent available, there aren't nearly the wild fluctuations there are in the CBS auctions.
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