Somewhere in the middle of my position-by-position analysis of the CBS Analysts A.L.-only auction, I was happily derailed by reader questions. Today, I'll continue with Part II of the A.L. outfielders.
LOW DOUBLE-DIGITS/HIGH SINGLE DIGITS
Julio Borbon $11, David Murphy $11, Josh Willingham $11, J.D. Drew $10, Michael Brantley $9.
It is a struggle to find something positive to say about Borbon's 2010. He looked overmatched most of the year and wound up pushed into a semi-regular role Post All-Star, playing regularly in September only because of Josh Hamilton's injury. Borbon's defense will keep him in the line-up, but he has to do somewhat better than he did in '10 if he wants to stay there. The potential speed makes him slightly tempting, but I worry he'll wind up out of a job. Every year, Murphy starts out as a fourth OF, and every year he seems to find a way to get 400+ AB. You have to bet on 250-300 AB, but Murphy is one of the few fourth OF I'd recommend bidding more than $3 on...how much more depends on your league. Willingham can mash but hasn't had over 500 AB since 2007. The A's will probably rotate Ryan Sweeney and Conor Jackson in frequently to keep Willingham and David DeJesus fresh. The new park will suppress the power somewhat, but Willingham's upside is 20-25 HR. Drew has a reputation as a guy who is always banged up and while that's somewhat true he has been good for 450+ AB four of the last five years. His health profile doesn't play well at Age 35, but Drew is extremely productive when he does play. Like Borbon, Brantley struggled last year. Brantley's numbers Post All-Star, though, were solid, and if Brantley can put up an empty .280 batting average with 25-30 steals his owners would certainly be fine with that.
THE GRIZZLED VETS (AND MATT JOYCE)
Johnny Damon $7, David DeJesus $7, Franklin Gutierrez $7, Matt Joyce $7, Magglio Ordonez $6, Manny Ramirez $6.
I've written over and over about how the prices at the top in CBS meant that the bargains were inevitable. Nowhere can this be seen more than in the outfield. Damon will be a slight bargain if he plays every day, but his numbers atrophied enough last year that you can't expect more than 10-12 HR, 10-12 SB and an OK batting average. He looks like a placeholder to me until the next great group of Rays arrives. DeJesus was on his way to a $20ish season before tearing a ligament in his thumb. He is one of those "better in real life than in Roto" players, though he's a fairly safe bet to put up $13-15 worth of stats even if he is underwhelming. Gutierrez fell off the cliff in the second half last year. It turns out that the stomach issues he was having were more serious than Gut or the Mariners were letting on. If healthy, don't bet on 2009, but a 15/20/.260 season isn't out of the question. Joyce should be the latest candidate for a "Free This Player" campaign. He can't hit lefties at all, but his career line against RHP is now 25/74/.253/.353/.515 in 439 AB. The Rays are probably going to try to find ways to get Joyce into the line-up, but the Damon and Manny Ramirez signings will make it difficult, and mean Joyce could wind up in AAA again. Ordonez is another player who can hit. His career year in 2007 was obviously a fluke, but Mags continues to provide decent power and batting average. Age 37 doesn't seem like a great age for someone with Mags' profile, but he's worth more than this $6. Manny's overall numbers were solid last year. But he faded with the White Sox and isn't someone I'd bet big bucks on. He seems like the guy the Rays will jettison for Joyce or Desmond Jennings if he doesn't perform. 15-20 HR isn't out of the question, but don't pay too far into double digits even if you like Manny.
BARELY ABOVE THE CRAPSHOOT
Lorenzo Cain $5, Desmond Jennings $5, Michael Saunders $5, Jeff Francoeur $4, Alex Gordon $4.
These are the guys owners expressed preferences on with their bids, taking them a couple of bucks above all of the OF listed below. Cain's game is speed and little else, but there's enough in his profile to make me believe he could hit .270-.280 and steal 30-35 bases in full-time duty. The low walk rate gives him little margin for error, though, and there are some who believe he could wind up in the minors to start 2011 because he has options. Jennings will start in the minors with the signings of Damon and Ramirez. The power evaporated last year and it's hard to put a positive spin on his 2010 Triple-A numbers. Short-term, if he does get called up, expect speed and not much else. He still has a shot at being more than that long-term, but don't pay for more in one-and-done leagues. Saunders is still young, but he still looks plenty raw to me. He's penciled in to start for the Mariners, but a .220-.230 average isn't going to cut it for someone who isn't a walk machine. I wouldn't go past this bid, and might bid less in non-carryover leagues. Francoeur is a lousy option in real life as a corner OF but a passable one in one-league leagues and a safe one at this price. He's a placeholder for the Royals while all of the kids in their system get ready, but even if he hits .240 Francoeur should still pop 15 HR or so and earn in the low double digits. Gordon is starting to look like the next Francoeur. He'll get a chance to start in left, but this is probably his last shot at a job in the bigs. He's probably worth this bid, but he now has a 733 OPS in 1.442 Major League at bats and is 27 years old. Be happy if he earns $10-12.
THE ENDGAME
Mike Cameron $2, Juan Rivera $2, Brennan Boesch $1, Milton Bradley $1, Melky Cabrera $1, Chris Carter $1, Trevor Crowe $1, Jarrod Dyson $1, Conor Jackson $1, Andruw Jones $1, Mitch Maier $1, Lastings Milledge $1, Corey Patterson $1, Felix Pie $1, Ryan Kalish $1, Ryan Sweeney $1.
There will obviously be some bargains here, but there will also be some guys who don't produce or disappear entirely. Rivera is the only player here who enters the year as the definitive starter and thus is the best-looking bargain at the moment. I'm skeptical that the Tigers will put Victor Martinez at DH too much, which means that Boesch can carve out a niche for himself, but he really crashed and burned Post All-Star. The rest of this group is back-ups whose earnings depend on how much time they can manage or if there are any injuries in front of them.
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