CBS Expert Analyst NL-Only 5x5 Results - Outfield Part II

The Bottom $20s: Chris Young ($23), Colby Rasmus ($22), Corey Hart ($21), Michael Bourn ($20), Aubrey Huff ($20), Carlos Lee ($20), Angel Pagan ($20), Jose Tabata ($20)

I spoke about Aubrey Huff and Carlos Lee here.

Chris Young got a lot better last year.  The walk rate went up.  The power went up.  The speed went up.  The average went up.  He is at age 27...I think this bid could be very good at the end of the year.  Rasmus had an excellent full freshman campaign.  He is in a very good lineup to continue his progression.  There are two caveats.  One, he needs to cut down the mistakes on the basepaths.  Two, the high BABIP combined with the so-so average means there is a lack of contact that needs to be corrected.  Hart really put things together last year, even though his speed seemingly deserted him on the base-paths.  I think the power is for real, but the average could take a dip with that long swing.  Bourn is the player no one likes to pay for, but, as we know, speed kills.  He really doesn’t do much other than steal bases and score runs, and the average is all over the board.  He did earn $26 in 5x5 last year, however, and there is no reason to think there is a precipitous drop-off coming anytime soon.  Speaking of speed, Angel Pagan has plenty of that as well.  He said that, if he had full-time ABs, he would produce, and wow, was he right.  The question for us is: do we want to pay for the chance he could repeat it?  Pagan earned $30 in 5x5…$20 is a fair gamble.  And then, there was more speed.  Tabata is a risk at $20.  The power has not developed, and the SB% is terrible.  He can fly, however, so in a full slate of ABs, he should steal many more bases.

The Teens: Jason Bay ($19), Logan Morrison ($16), Andres Torres ($16), Carlos Beltran ($13), Dominic Brown ($13), Carlos Beltran ($13), Chris Coghlan ($11), Omar Infante ($11), Garret Jones ($11), Seth Smith ($11), Nate McLouth ($10), Nyger Morgan ($10), Alfonso Soriano ($10)

I already spoke about Omar Infante here.

From a personal perspective, we all hope that Bay recovers from his concussion symptoms.  The question is: where will Bay be when he comes back?  If healthy, his Pittsburgh numbers should be a minimum production level for him, and this $19 bid will look okay.  Morrison handled the bat pretty nicely in 200+ ABs last year.  He didn’t hit for any home run power, but he did hit 20 doubles.  I don’t know if that power is going to come around this year…a better bet is a 10/70/5/.290 line.  Torres can run, and last year he had a nice LD% and BABIP.  The K rate is still too high, and a slight regression is likely.  On the flip side, he should still turn a profit at this price (having earned $24 last year).  Beltran is a nice gamble price here.  2010 should not concern you, but the combination of 2009 and 2010 should.  He had consistent slugging for a couple of years, but 2009 and 2010 combined show a lack of power.  Some of that might be related to injury, but query whether this is part of an overall decline. 

Coghlan is tough to price this year, coming off a very significant injury.  He is also playing a new outfield position.  Given these, bid with a little trepidation, but mid-teens earnings seems likely assuming health.  Jones is a guy going the wrong way already…the OBP dropped, the slugging dropped, the home runs dropped, the contact dropped.  With a whole host of characters on the Pirates roster, Jones could suddenly disappear if the slide continues.  I don’t think this is a bad price at $11; just don’t be surprised is something bad happens.  Smith earns in limited at-bats; he should stay in those limited at-bats for that reason.  This price is a little high, understanding the possibilities on the power side of the equation.  The OBP, average and slugging all dropped off fairly considerably, so buyer beware.  It is hard to imagine that McLouth is in decline already, but last year was miserable.  I don’t know if you can let your opponents get him for less than $10, but I do not want to be the guy who says $10.  Nyjer Morgan is a loose cannon.  He is looking like a poor man’s Juan Pierre.  Very poor.  He could be right out of Washington this summer if his poor OBP and poor attitude continue.  The Soriano price is very nice.  He has not declined significantly over the past few years, and the power/speed combination should bring a tidy profit.