2011 CBSSports.com A.L.-Only Analysts League: Starting Pitchers Part I

As I discussed recently, while the hitting prices in CBS for the top players are incredibly high, the pitching prices remained stable at the top and took a hit at the bottom.

THE TOP DOGS

Felix Hernandez $35, Jon Lester $29, CC Sabathia $29, Justin Verlander $26, Dan Haren $25, Jered Weaver $25.

Felix is clearly the best of what has become a weaker bunch in the American League. The only thing in Roto that can make you hesitate are the possible lack of wins, but the Mariners once again tried to tighten up the defense behind him and he should once again be a $30+ pitcher. Lester has seemed like he's on the verge of moving up from very good to elite the last two years, but even if he doesn't, he's a $25-30 pitcher as well. He's not quite the workhorse that Felix or Sabathia is. CC simply earns in Roto, and even if never puts together a superhuman season, his innings and wins make him a worthy top of the staff option. Verlander fell a little bit below the other aces here, but with the exception of Felix he's in their class, and probably worthy of another buck or two. Haren and Weaver, on the other hand, are properly priced and you might even want to scale back a dollar. Haren looked OK in the second half last year but the prodigious fly ball rate makes me slightly wary. I think Weaver is very good but I'd like to see him repeat 2010 before paying him more than this.

THE YOUNG UP AND COMERS

David Price $23, Francisco Liriano $23, Max Scherzer $22, Brett Anderson $18.

Price and Liriano both pitched like aces last year, but these prices express some slight reservations. In Price's case, I suppose owners are looking at the division and the slight downturn in July and August. But at 25, I see more of the upside than the downside. Liriano's perceived downside is based on his durability. He threw over 190 innings last year, and I think the larger issue is his ability to go deep into games. FIP loves Liriano, and this is the price you'll have to pay if you want him. Scherzer was dynamite in the second half, but this price seems high for someone who hasn't put up a full season of great numbers. I could see a $20+ season for him, but color me wary. Anderson is everyone's favorite breakout candidate, but he hasn't thrown over 300 innings in the Majors yet and missed time last year due to injury. This price is OK, but don't get caught chasing.

#2 STARTERS (?)

Josh Beckett $17, Phil Hughes $16, Colby Lewis $16, Clay Buchholz $15, Trevor Cahill $15, Brandon Morrow $15, Ricky Romero $15.

The prices here are an illustration of how owners are both willing to stretch to push for a 2nd starter and also the reluctance to pay for pitching. Beckett was horrendous last year, but his FIP makes him look subpar and not horrible. The whiffs were still there and the BABIP was artificially high. People have been down on Beckett so long that he could come for a bargain. Seventeen dollars, though, is not a bargain. Hughes had six strong starts last year and then fell off the cliff. After those six starts, he had a 4.98 ERA (with a 4.75 FIP)...and this doesn't include his postseason disaster against Texas. Scouts were once excited about his curve, but he hasn't been able to throw it with any kind of consistency in the Majors. The wins will come, but I'm worried about Hughes in this division. It's too bad that the Rangers made the play-offs; otherwise Lewis might have flown under the radar this year. He's no ace, but his stuff is worthy of the #2 label. He came back from Japan throwing his slider with authority, and while his stuff doesn't look dominant, he is hard to get a read on. Buchholz is everyone's FIP crash-and-burn candidate, but I think he has enough stuff to put up a 3.5 ERA or so. He's not a ground ball machine, but keeps the ball on the ground enough that I don't see the HR rate spiking as much as others do. Regression is obvious, but he's still a guy I'd go close to $20 for in this thin pitching market. Cahill's another guy who gets no love from the numbers guys. His low strikeout rate puts him at risk for an ERA spike, but he keeps the ball on the ground and has a lot of sink on his fastball. I like him a lot, and don't see another Scott Feldman here. Morrow is one of my two candidates to have a major breakout in 2011 (the other is below). He was very unlucky on batted balls in play and just needs to shave the walks somewhat to be a dominant force. If you can get him for less then this that's a smarter play, but don't be afraid to bid based on preference here. Romero turned into a solid pitcher last year. He now throws three plus pitches for strikes and does a great job keeping the ball on the ground. I don't see a breakout here, but if he maintains he's a solid #2 or strong #3.

$13-14

John Danks $14, John Lackey $14, Jeremy Hellickson $13, Edwin Jackson $13, Brian Matusz $13.

Danks is an example of a solid plugger in Roto who will probably never bust out but should be pretty consistently in the mid to high 3s in ERA. Don't get caught chasing and you should do OK with him at this price. I've always said that Lackey is somewhat overrated, but like his staff mate Beckett, he now looks like he'll go a little cheaper because of his off year in 2010. I can see him bouncing back into that $15-17 range where he generally sits and would pay in this neighborhood. Hellickson looks like a terrific prospect, but pedigree or no, $13 seems like a lot for a pitcher with four Major League starts under his belt. I think Hellickson will be fine, but all rookies go through an adjustment and a 4.50 to a 5 ERA isn't out of the question either. Which Edwin Jackson is going to show up this year? He's got great stuff but sometimes just rears back and fires. This is fine in Double-A but not the Majors. Jackson's got $20 stuff but I'd worry about getting a $0-5 season out of him. Like Scherzer, Matusz struggled out of the gate but then was money in his last eight starts against Texas, Chicago, Boston, New York, Toronto, Boston, Tampa, and Detroit. His first-half struggles will suppress his price, but Matusz is ace material that will go for a non-ace price.

THAT'S IT FOR THE DOUBLE DIGITS?

Gio Gonzalez $12, C.J. Wilson $12, Ervin Santana $11, Scott Baker $10.

Gonzalez is my other A.L. pitching breakout candidate for 2011. He took a big step forward last year. He started changing speeds on his fastball a little bit and started throwing that sick curve of his for strikes enough of the time that hitters had to swing. While the strikeout rate went down, the result was poorer quality of contact and fewer innings were Gonzalez looked like meat on a stick. Anderson is everyone's darling, but Gio could be the ace of this staff. Wilson's peripherals scream decline, but he's a fierce competitor who does a great job with pitch selection and location. He doesn't have a huge margin for error, but he should remain a solid pitcher. Santana bounced back to have an above average season, but he was somewhat erratic and not the pitcher he was in 2008. He'll turn a slight profit here if he can keep his ERA/WHIP league neutral, but if you can't reserve him during the slumps be wary. Baker is a great example of how ERA usually tells you little about a pitcher. His peripherals have been fairly similar three years running now yet his ERA has stunk in the last two. If he's healthy, he has the capability of posting a 3.7-3.8 ERA, but that seems close to his upside. I wouldn't go much higher than this, but you do need innings like this in the middle of your staff to win.