Here is the second part of my two part series on the CBS Analysts A.L.-only league auction prices on pitchers. Part I is here.
NINE IS FINE (AND AN $8 FOR GOOD MEASURE)
Gavin Floyd $9, Jake Peavy $9, Joel Pineiro $9, James Shields $9, Kevin Slowey $8.
Floyd slumped last year, but much of that was due to a horrible April/May that was incredibly unlucky. His ERA in the first two months was a 6.02; his FIP during that time was a 3.82. He normalized the rest of the year and put up a 3.21 ERA (with a 3.19 FIP). Don't go looking for a $20+ season here, but $13-17 is well within the realm of possibility. Peavy is high risk/high reward. He pitched very well before his injury, but like many others I hate trying to guess on a comeback that has no precedent I'm aware of. Pineiro's success is based on the ground ball. His rate in 2009 was super high. In 2010 it was good but not great. Last year seems like a reasonable expectation but if he slips a little bit below that it won't be a shock. Full disclosure. Once upon a time, I was a Shields believer. He was incredibly unlucky last year, but even so a look at his career shows a pitcher whose peripherals suggest a guy who should be putting up a 3.80 ERA. Sound like an ace to you? Shields is still a solid option, but there's some momentum out there suggesting he's a sleeper. This price is good. A few bucks more than this is OK, but don't chase. Slowey's peripherals suggest he should be better than he is, but he was terrible away from pitcher-friendly Target Field and his off-speed pitches sometimes don't seem good enough for a guy who doesn't dial it up on the gun. He looks to me like a capable mid-tier guy, not someone I'd crack double-digits for.
FIVE, SIX, SEVEN
Jeff Niemann $7, Michael Pineda $7, Jeremy Guthrie $6, Dallas Braden $5, Wade Davis $5.
Niemann was more than solid in the first half of 2010, but then a bad shoulder led to a terrible second half. I anticipate a bounce back if healthy, but like Shields his upside is more in the high 3s in ERA than in the mid to low 3s. Pineda's price is misleading. Tom Kephart of Baseball HQ had $7 left on the table and had to spend it. His ceiling is high, but a half season in Triple-A would be best; I agree with Baseball Prospectus' assessment that Pineda needs to refine his secondary pitches. Guthrie is a boring plugger who has earned in double digits three of the last four years. I understand the price, as Guthrie's peripherals are below average, but in this price range it's OK to hope he continues to pitch well. Braden is a difficult pitcher to get excited about, but he's been a capable starter two years running now. He's better in 4x4 because he'll never whiff a lot of guys, but is OK in 5x5 because of the park he pitches in and the defense behind him. Don't read too much into Davis' FIP. This was almost entirely the product of his horrible first half. He had a 3.59 FIP Post All-Star as he started keeping the ball in the park. I'm not sure if he's that good, but Davis is a fine #3-4 A.L.-only starter.
A HAIR OVER THE CRAPSHOOT
Mark Buehrle $4, A.J. Burnett $4, Brett Cecil $4, Justin Masterson $4, Carl Pavano $4, Brandon Webb $4.
This looks like a good price for Buehrle assuming a bounce back. The low K/IP rate makes me nervous, though. Buehrle is veering close to a sub-4 K/IP per nine innings, which puts him more at the mercy of his defense and luck. I don't mind paying $5 for that and hoping for a profit, but don't pay for 2008-2009. Some see Burnett as a bounce back candidate in 2011. Perhaps, but his problem isn't physical or mechanical but between the ears. Burnett would give up a hard hit and you'd see his facial and body language change immediately. He'd stop throwing breaking pitches and start trying to blow his fastball by everyone. Can this be fixed? Perhaps, but unless I can reserve active Major Leaguers in my league, I'm not touching him. Cecil is another guy I see touted as a sleeper. My reaction is "eh". He showed improvement in his sophomore season, but I see him right now as more of a mid-tier guy than an ace. And he pitches in the A.L. East, which doesn't help. Masterson is a borderline sleeper: a guy who could take the next step and become a #3-#4 starting pitcher. He keeps the ball on the ground, showed some improvement against LHB last year, and came on strong down the stretch. This is a nice bid for him if your freeze list isn't strong and you're looking for upside. Pavano likely pitched to his upside last year. He's OK a couple of ticks higher than this, but he pitches to contact and isn't going to ever be dominant. The infield defense behind him helps; losing J.J. Hardy doesn't. In an early February auction, Webb is a gamble. This is a flier that could work out well, but there are plenty of pitchers in the next group who are better fliers at this point than Webb.
THE NEVER ENDING ENDGAME
Fausto Carmona $3, Carlos Carrasco $3, Brian Duensing $3, Tommy Hunter $3, Brad Penny $3, Rick Porcello $3, Mark Rzepczynski $3, Kyle Drabek $2, Justin Duchscherer $2, Jake Arrieta $1, Erik Bedard $1, Brad Bergesen $1, Nick Blackburn $1, Phil Coke $1, Dan Duffy $1, Doug Fister $1, Jeff Francis $1, Kyle Gibson $1, Rich Harden $1, Luke Hochevar $1, Derek Holland $1, Scott Kazmir $1, Daisuke Matsuzaka $1, Vin Mazzaro $1, Ivan Nova $1, Josh Outman $1, Josh Tomlin $1, Rick Vandenhurk $1, Jason Vargas $1, Tim Wakefield $1.
Twenty-nine pitchers in CBS's A.L. auction went for three dollars or less. Because CBS spends more money on the top players, this leads to more $1-3 pitchers (Though not as much as you might believe. LABR bought 22 $1-3 starting pitchers in 2010; Tout Wars bought 23 pitchers like this).
There is profit to be had here.
2008-2010 A.L. CBS Pitchers: $1-3 Cost
Year | # | Sal | $ | # $10+ |
2008 | 26 | $41 | $160 | 6 |
2009 | 32 | $51 | $130 | 6 |
2010 | 27 | $52 | $173 | 10 |
It seems like there are a lot of $1-3 starting pitchers purchased in CBS, but it's not just the league. LABR had 22 $1-3 SP buys in 2010 while Tout Wars had 23. The top tier prices probably have a little bit of an impact on these prices on CBS, but not as much as I would have suspected.
I rolled this chart out because while it might be somewhat instructional to profile all 29 of the pitchers on the chart above, it would be foolish to tell you that I can see who this year's Trevor Cahill is going to be. I was wrong about a lot of last year's cheap pitchers, but part of that is because it is a guessing game trying to figure out who is going to break out and who is going to flame out.
Note that while skimming the bottom of the barrel is a profitable endeavor that it's also a feast or famine exercise. The six $10+ earners in 2008 (Cliff Lee, Mike Mussina, Duchscherer, Joe Saunders, Gavin Floyd, and Jesse Litsch) earned $145 out of the $160 earned by these pitchers in '08. Take out the negative earners, and they still earned $145 out of $193...or 75% of the positive earnings from this pool of pitchers. 2010 saw more of these pitchers, but there was an even bigger drop-off from Brandon Morrow (earned $10) to Freddy Garcia ($6) and the cluster of $3-4 earners below Garcia. We might hit here, but it's more likely we're going to fail or get nothing back for our efforts. Personally, I like Carmona, Carrasco, Porcello, Drabek, Blackburn, and Holland from this group, but if Fister turns out to be the big earnings winner here in 2011, I wouldn't bat an eye.
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