And here, at long last, is the final part of my long, long series on the CBS Analysts League A.L.-only auction. Rather than sort by prices like I did throughout the series, today I'm going to run down each bullpen team-by-team.
BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Kevin Gregg $9, Koji Uehara $8.
A split decision on the Baltimore bullpen. Camden Chat has a solid write-up on the Orioles bullpen. Uehara is the guy who deserves the job based on the numbers. Gregg is the workhorse who is more likely stay healthy and last the entire season in the role; Uehara has already had a cortisone injection in his elbow. It is supposed to be minor and he's supposed to be back in a week, but this is the kind of injury that could linger all year long. Gregg is the boring workhorse who would get the saves but could put up a 4.50 ERA with a 1.4 WHIP in the tough A.L. East. My money's on Uehara to start the season, but I could see Gregg netting 10-15 saves at a minimum.
BOSTON RED SOX
Jon Papelbon $20, Daniel Bard $3, Bobby Jenks $1, Dan Wheeler $1.
I'm certain that a cursory Google search would come up with several articles highlighting how Papelbon has slipped the last few years and how he could be shaky in 2011. He's not the dominant pitcher he was in 2007-2008, but he should be an above average Roto option this year. He continues to strike out over a batter an inning and even if his ERA sits in the mid to high-3s, the Sox probably won't bail on him. If Paps does fail, I'd look to Jenks before Bard, at least in the short-term. Bard is probably a better pitcher than Jenks, but I suspect the Sox brought Jenks in to keep the pressure off of Bard in the short-term (and possibly keep Bard's value low pre-arbitration, though that's just my educated guess). Jenks was also a strong whiff option last year and would do fine in the role. Bard is more likely to be a quality set-up again. Wheeler doesn't figure into the mix for saves, but he's a solid middle reliever who should quietly earn money, even in 5x5.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Matt Thornton $20, Chris Sale $10.
Forget about the prices here. Thornton was the next-to-last closer to come up with the exception of Fernando Rodney, and the owner who bought him already had Sale in his pocket. Thirty dollars is a lot to pay for a one-two punch in 5x5, but Sale and Thornton certainly could earn it with their saves and strikeouts. Sale seems like the sexy pick, but I think Thornton is the better bet to wind up with the job, unless Ozzie trusts Thornton more in the 7th/8th inning role because he's done it before. Sale was great last year, but he has all of 33 2/3 innings under his belt and does have some control issues. If he keeps pitching like he did after his call-up, great, but sometimes young guys with this little professional experience go through growing pains. Either pitcher would be a solid closing option, and I suppose it's a nice problem for the White Sox to have.
CLEVELAND INDIANS
Chris Perez $18.
I wasn't sold on Perez early last year and when the Indians shipped Kerry Wood out I wasn't sure if Perez would hold up as the closer. Not only did Perez hold up, but he had an incredible run in the second half, posting an eye-popping 0.63 ERA in 28 2/3 innings after the break. Perez has the stuff to close, has the mentality, and could breakthrough as a top option. The pen behind him is weak, so I'm not sure who the CIW is here. Chad Durbin - who the Indians just signed - is as good a guess as anyone here.
DETROIT TIGERS
Jose Valverde $19, Joaquin Benoit $3.
Valverde went into a tailspin the second half of last year, and it turned out that his elbow was bothering him. Fortunately, it turned out it was tendinitis and nothing more serious. The drop-off makes it easy to forget that Valverde was dynamite in the first half and looking like an elite option. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. Valverde is very good when he's on, making him a good option this year after the top closers go. Benoit is a better insurance policy than Phil Coke or Ryan Perry were last year, and I suspect Jim Leyland will be more inclined to rest Valverde and give Benoit some save opportunities now and again. Benoit certainly isn't going to put up a 1.34 ERA again, but he could still be a top set-up guy this year and is definitely next in line after Valverde.
KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Joakim Soria $23.
If the Rangers do decide to move Neftali Feliz to the rotation, then Soria is probably the best relief option in the A.L. He might be regardless. Soria throws four pitches effectively and hitters can never seem to get a good read off of him. He's as close to a lock as there is in the A.L. Robinson Tejeda is the short-term CIW here, but Jeremy Jeffress is the guy who has the closer-of-the-future tag.
LOS ANGELES ANGELS
Fernando Rodney $8, Scott Downs $5, Hisanori Takahashi $1, Jordan Walden $1.
Rodney is definitely the closer, yet his price is the lowest closer price in the A.L. (he's tied with David Aardsma, who is coming off an injury...more on that below). A drop in Rodney's walk rate the last two years has coincided with a drop in his whiff rate, making him acceptably wild (barely) but not quite as intimidating out there. He has the job but I suspect the addition of Downs gives Rodney limited margin for error. R.J. Anderson wrote a solid piece over at Fangraphs where he pointed out that Downs has been as effective the last few years as Rafael Soriano. It's hard to pay $5 for a set-up, but Downs definitely should go for more than $1. Takahashi is more likely to be a set-up who provides the Angels with high quantity, good quality innings than a closer, but don't rule it out. Walden's the guy I see closing in 2013 for the Halos. He throws gas, but still needs a little refinement.
MINNESOTA TWINS
Joe Nathan $12, Matt Capps $5.
These are clearly prices from an auction in early February. If Nathan's healthy, his price goes up (maybe just a little) and Capps' goes down a buck or two. If Nathan can't go, I'd probably put $10-12 on Capps depending on the health reports. So far, it sounds like Nathan's velocity is down but he has been effective. He probably won't be the pre-injury Nathan, so don't bid him up like that, particularly in a non-keeper format. Capps was solid last year so if he does have to answer the bell you can bid him up a little more than this, particularly if Nathan's diagnosis is on the grim side.
NEW YORK YANKEES
Mariano Rivera $23, Rafael Soriano $4.
One of these years, Rivera is going to start to lose it. I've been writing something along those lines since I started writing about the CBS league in 2008. Eventually I'm going to be right, but you can't just let Rivera go for $15 because this is the year he might lose it. Rivera's strikeout rate dropped quite a bit last year, but he was still incredibly effective. Soriano should see a handful of save opportunities, as the Yankees have tried to rest Rivera more during the regular season as he gets up there. In keeper leagues, Soriano's an interesting 2012 play. He has an opt-out clause in his contract, and while the money is great ($25 MM in 2012-2013), Soriano might rather close than play second banana in New York.
OAKLAND A'S
Andrew Bailey $19, Grant Balfour $2, Brian Fuentes $1.
Bailey had some "loose bodies" removed from his elbow in late September but should be ready to go on Opening Day. The A's are being extremely cautious thus far, so it wouldn't surprise me to see Fuentes get some save ops on back-to-back days in April. Bailey has been tremendous the last two years; only his durability keeps him out of the elite category. Given Fuentes' contract, he's probably the logical guy if Bailey gets hurt again. Fuentes typically plays as a solid option that has one or two bad stretches a year. If Bailey's gone, he's OK but more of a second-tier guy. Balfour put up some great numbers for the Rays the last three years but has never been viewed as a closer. Maybe he'll leapfrog Fuentes in the pecking order, but I'd just expect solid earnings across the board rather than a healthy helping of surprise saves.
SEATTLE MARINERS
David Aardsma $8, Brandon League $7.
Just like in Baltimore, another split decision. Aardsma is recovering from hip surgery and it is probable he won't be ready on Opening Day. Everyone is super excited about League, but a look at his numbers last year doesn't excite me all that much. Jeff Sullivan at Lookout Landing points out that League was dominant in 2009 when he was throwing his splitter more, less so in 2010 when he wasn't. If League starts throwing the splitter again effectively, Sullivan believes that he could be a top shelf guy. Aardsma had a stretch last year where he looked like he had lost at and was throwing nothing but fastballs but then recovered. A similar stretch this year could mean a change in roles for Aardsma and League.
TAMPA BAY RAYS
Jake McGee $9, Kyle Farnsworth $3, Joel Peralta $2, J.P. Howell $1, Andy Sonnanstine $1.
With the exception of Sonnanstine, every one of these guys has been mentioned as a possible closer by the mainstream sports and fantasy press. I agree with the prices here and think that McGee is likely to get the most saves in this pen, but a bad spring would change that in a hurry. Farnsworth can be terrific or lousy, Peralta is more of a match-up/utility pitcher, and Howell is yet another pitcher coming back from injury. I wouldn't pay too much for anyone in this pen at the moment.
TEXAS RANGERS
Neftali Feliz $23, Alexi Ogando $2.
Will Feliz be one of the best closers in baseball in 2011 or a very good starting pitcher? The Rangers seem serious about seeing if Feliz can start, but they haven't committed to him in the rotation just yet. If he's closing, he's obviously going to be a terrific option again for Texas and for us. If Feliz is in the rotation, Ogando looks like the guy who will get first crack at the job. He's obviously not going to put up a 1.3 ERA for the Rangers this year, but if he can keep throwing strikes he would be a capable closer - at a minimum - for the Rangers. Ogando certainly isn't a sure thing to close - I've heard Arthur Rhodes and Darren O'Day mentioned as possibilities as well - but in a fluid situation, he seems like the most logical candidate.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Frank Francisco $12, Octavio Dotel $7, Jon Rauch $2.
The early money is on Francisco to close here, but as Howard Bender at Fangraphs points out, Francisco is an imperfect option (and I'm glad he pointed this out, because the way some have been talking Francisco up, I thought I was going crazy). Francisco has the highest ceiling here, but he has had an erratic career, has an injury history, and a propensity for the long ball. Dotel is imperfect too, though. He's lights out against righties and terrible against lefties, which makes him look more like a reverse specialist than a closer. Rauch was a solid fill-in candidate for the Twins last year until they acquired Capps, but I think he's the dark horse here. I wouldn't be surprised if someone like David Purcey or Josh Roenicke has this job come September.
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