This is the second half of my pitching write-up results from the CBS Sports auction. As I mentioned in the first part, pitchers like Joba Chamberlain and Neftali Feliz are being included in the bullpen in the conclusion of this series next time out.
YOUNG OR COMING OFF OF INJURY
Erik Bedard $6, Clay Buchholz $6, Wade Davis $6, Shaun Marcum $6, Brian Matusz $6, Joel Pineiro $5, Chris Tillman $5.
Pineiro is the only pitcher here who doesn't fit the header, so I think he could be the bargain of this group as a result. He bounced back in a big way last year due to Dave Duncan teaching him a heavy sinker, and I don't see why Pineiro can't maintain what he's learned moving forward. The ERA should jump a little, but at this price and on the Angels he should still produce $8-12 worth of value in 5x5. Bedard and Marcum are the injured arms here. Reports on when Bedard will be ready are all over the place. Even if he comes back at the All-Star Break, though, he's OK at $6 since he's very likely to produce positive ERA/WHIP when healthy. Marcum missed all of 2009 but has reportedly been solid this spring. Even so, he's a total wild card and is probably a better play a little cheaper or for a rebuilding team. The young arms here all have a variety of expectations based on where they're at in the development curve. Buchholz is your typical post-hype candidate who might finally break through after struggling big time in 2008 and taking a step forward in 2009. I expect Davis, Matusz, and Tillman to struggle to varying degrees in 2010, and would rank them in that order in terms of preference. Long term, I like Matusz the most but given he's youth and the park he's pitching in, a 4.50 ERA wouldn't be a surprise.
$3-4
Nick Blackburn $4, Dallas Braden $4, Gil Meche $4, Joe Saunders $4, Trevor Cahill $3, Justin Duchscherer $3, Derek Holland $3, Justin Masterson $3, Brandon Morrow $3, Carl Pavano $3, Ricky Romero $3, Mark Rzepczynski $3.
This is an interesting mix of young pitchers with upside and soft tossing pitchers who don't. Blackburn, Braden and Saunders all fit the soft-tosser profile, and all three need everything to be working for them just right in order to succeed. They're all fine at $4, but keep in mind that low K/IP who rely on defense and ballparks can earn less than $4 and are far more likely to finish in the red than pitchers who whiff 6.0/9 IP or more. Of the young arms here, I'd rank them Cahill, Masterson, Morrow, Holland, Romero, and Rzepczynski...though there are certainly some gray areas here. Cahill was very highly regarded only a year ago at this time, and the numbers could catch up to the ability as soon as this year. Masterson is another pitcher I like; his high K/IP are a good omen, even if a lot of that came out of the bullpen. Morrow and Holland are pitchers I feel could go in either direction. Morrow and Holland certainly have promise, but both have been all over the place and I don't have a good instinct for what 2010 will bring. Romero and Rzepczynski fall into my avoid category. Romero's low K/IP and high WHIP are red flags, while I feel like I don't know enough about Rzepczynski to confidently roster him. Pavano and Duchscherer are the other pitchers in this group. Duchscherer is an open question at this point; his spring will push this bid up or keep it about the same. Everyone points to Pavano's favorable FIP and thinks rebound, but given his injury track record and overall hittability I'm not all that confident.
BOTTOM OF THE BARREL
Colby Lewis $2, Freddy Garcia $2, Gio Gonzalez $2, Jeremy Guthrie $2, Kevin Millwood $2, Ian Snell $2, Tim Wakefield $2, Jake Westbrook $2, Brad Bergesen $1, Jeremy Bonderman $1, Brett Cecil $1, Armando Galarraga $1, David Huff $1, Dan Hudson $1, Brandon McCarthy $1, Dustin McGowan $1, Robinson Tejeda $1, Koji Uehara $1, Jarrod Washburn $1.
Some of these pitchers are still in competition for a starting role, some will definitely start in the minors, and Uehara looks like he's being groomed for the bullpen. Any of these guys could be potential bargains at these prices. The breakout candidates are probably Gonzalez, Hudson, McGowan and Tejeda. Hudson simply needs an injury in the Majors to get his shot. Gonzalez has great stuff when he's on but is only on about 50% of the time. Tejeda needs a little more control and McGowan needs more health. Guys I'd avoid here are Wakefield (not sure about his role), Galarraga (too hittable) and Huff (ditto, though he had a nice September). Washburn is still unsigned as I write this.
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